Will BVB throw away all their chances of reaching the semi-finals in the first leg?
As a coach of FC Bayern and FC Barcelona, Hansi Flick has taken to the sidelines six times against Borussia Dortmund. The former national coach was able to win all six games. In five out of six cases, his clubs scored at least three goals, and BVB conceded a total of 18 against Flick. This remarkable statistic alone underlines the fact that it takes either a certain amount of imagination and willingness to take risks or an irrational black-and-yellow fan perspective to place a bet on the Bundesliga club in the CL quarter-final first leg between Barcelona and Dortmund on Wednesday evening.
The Catalans are still unbeaten in the entire 2025 calendar year and currently have by far the best offense in Europe. In comparison, Borussia is the only one of the eight remaining clubs in the quarterfinals of the premier class that is not ranked in an international starting position in the domestic league.
Nevertheless, coach Niko Kovac’s team has been able to regain some self-confidence recently and is therefore traveling to the 1992 Olympic Stadium with a better feeling than would have been the case three weeks ago. However, a Barcelona v Dortmund prediction on BVB requires more than the principle of hope and an unfounded confidence in view of the season so far.
For this very reason, the odds on the three-way market leave no questions unanswered about the direction the game is likely to take before the kick-off of the first leg between Barcelona and Dortmund. The 1.40 that you can bet on the home win in the Interwetten app is already the highest of feelings.
Barcelona vs. Dortmund prediction AI
According to the artificial intelligence, the most one-sided constellation in this Champions League quarter-final is between Barcelona and Dortmund. With a probability of almost 80%, the Catalans will reach the semi-finals against last year’s finalists. The xG values calculated by the “BETSiE” for the first leg on Wednesday evening also paint a clear picture. Here, Barca is ahead with 2.39 to 1.08 goals. From this, for example, a Barcelona vs. Dortmund AI prediction on the Asian handicap (-1.25) can be derived. However, a bet on the favorites’ success, including goals from both teams, can also be considered. The latter approach brings a 2.40 at Interwetten.
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
FC Barcelona are still in with a chance of a treble this season. In La Liga, the team of German coach Hansi Flick currently leads the table by four points ahead of Real Madrid. They have also reached the final of the Copa del Rey and are also considered to have a very good chance of winning the Champions League internationally.
Ahead of the quarter-final between Barcelona and Dortmund, Bwin is offering odds of 4.33 for the team from Catalonia to lift the trophy. And just in time for the exciting European Cup week, you can grab a €10 Bwin freebet up to and including Thursday.
Will Barcelona play their way into a frenzy in the first leg?
For Barca, the strong offense clearly speaks in favor of Wednesday evening and also in the further course of this CL season. 32 goals have been scored in ten Champions League games this year. The “Blaugrana” have scored at least three of their own goals seven times. In the five home games at the Olympic Stadium, which continues to serve as an alternative venue due to the renovation work at the Camp Nou, they scored a whopping 17 goals. Also impressive: in the 23 competitive games played in the 2025 calendar year, betting on three or more FCB goals would have paid off in 11 cases alone.
If you also consider that the team defending in the front only managed to keep a clean sheet in three matches, it is not surprising that in 70% of all CL matches involving Barcelona, a bet on Over 3.5 would have paid off. With a clear conscience and the statistical background mentioned, there is virtually no alternative when it comes to predicting a goal-filled 90 minutes between Barcelona and Dortmund. This is especially true when you consider the last direct duel, which took place in mid-December and ended with a 3-2 victory for the title contenders in Dortmund.
Furthermore, betting on the favorite to win is certainly also an option. Barca have not lost a single game in 2025 and have even emerged victorious from 19 of the 23 matches mentioned. The individually top-class offensive line-up will show the limits of the not always rock-solid BVB defense. Especially on the wing positions, there are almost unfair matchups. Raphinha, who has 16 scorer points and is thus chasing Lionel Messi’s all-time record from the 2011/12 season, will probably face Ryerson on the left. Super youngster Yamal will face Bensebaini or Svensson on the right. Oh dear black and yellow…
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
The Dortmund club motto “Real Love” can be perfectly projected onto the relationship with the UEFA Champions League in the last two years. Last season, BVB reached the final of the Champions League by surprise, in which Real Madrid just managed to get the better with a lucky 2-0 win. In 2024/25, the black and yellow have once again made it to the last eight and should therefore not be underestimated under any circumstances.
However, based on their performances in the Bundesliga, there is no easier draw. It will therefore be important not to mix up the disappointing performances in the league and the decent performances in European business too much. When the CL anthem sounds and the floodlights come on, you can almost always expect a motivated and uncomfortable Dortmund team.
Dortmund regularly performs at its best in the CL knockout phase
Another factor in BVB’s favor is the fact that they have recently enjoyed knockout matches at the international level. They have won five of their last eight Champions League knockout games (5-2-1). They have won three consecutive away games, including at Sporting Lisbon and in the round of 16 in Lille. This “away strength”, which cannot even be mentioned in the Bundesliga, is primarily based on the decent transition play and the fast attackers, whom Niko Kovac will probably also let off the leash on Wednesday evening.
Against the very high and risky defending Barca defense, which likes to build its offside line on the halfway line, the underdog should always be able to get deep with targeted through balls. If BVB finds a good mixture of pressing resilience and the necessary counterattacks against the brutal pressure of the FCB offense, I definitely believe they can score at least one goal. The Barcelona vs. BVB AI tip on the home win including goals on both sides is definitely an interesting betting recommendation.
In terms of personnel, it will be interesting to see how Niko Kovac compensates for the absence of Pascal Groß, who is suspended for yellow. In the new 3-5-2 system from the weekend, which led to a 4-1 win in Freiburg, Groß was the only defensive midfielder behind two very offensive eights with Chukwuemeka and Brandt. Felix Nmecha would be a possible solution, although he is likely to still be below 100% after a long injury. However, the coach may also choose to do without another offensive player in the starting lineup, thus setting the course to defend out of the defensive pressing. But whether that will succeed remains to be seen…
Barcelona – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H record
It was only in December of last year that the teams faced each other in the league phase. In front of their home crowd, the black and yellow presented themselves as a difficult opponent. After a goalless first half, BVB was able to quickly equalize the first two Barca goals. In the end, however, the game ended 3:2 for FC Barcelona, who now even have home advantage and not only want to remain unbeaten in the fourth encounter in the premier class, but also want to celebrate their third victory. Dortmund’s record against Spanish clubs is anything but good, with three wins, five draws and twelve defeats. Barca have already beaten Bayern and Dortmund this CL season alone, scoring a whopping seven goals in the process.
Barcelona – Dortmund Tip
Personally, I have my doubts that BVB can pull off an upset in Catalonia. Barca has not lost a game in the entire calendar year of 2025 (19-4-0) and has scored at least three times in almost half of all matches. Borussia is not having a good season at all and relies primarily on its ability to rise above itself in big CL knockout games. My recommendation between Barcelona and Dortmund is therefore a bet that at least four goals will be scored in the game. For Over 3.5, Interwetten is offering 2.05, which I will take with five units.
