Does the Thorup effect last with the Fuggerstädtern?

That coaching changes always offer the chance for a turnaround was evident at FC Augsburg last weekend. In the first game under Jess Thorup, the Fuggerstädtern even managed a Bundesliga premiere. For the first time, FCA managed to overturn a two-goal deficit. In the end, the 5-2 win in Heidenheim was even the only second Bundesliga win for the Bavarian Swabians in which more than four goals were scored. Nevertheless, there are a few question marks for Augsburg against Wolfsburg in addition to tip 1.

After all, the Wolves, who are currently ninth in the table just one place ahead of Augsburg, have already picked up four more points in league play and have already won twice as many games (four) as the Fuggerstädter (two). However, VfL recently suffered two defeats in a row for the first time in the still young season, which definitely influences the forecast for Augsburg against Wolfsburg.

It is clear that the three-way system in this match carries extremely high risks. On the one hand, the momentum is with Augsburg, who are currently also unbeaten in three Bundesliga duels with VfL Wolfsburg (one win, two draws). On the other hand, FCA has won only one of its last eleven Bundesliga home games against the Wolves (five draws, five defeats).

It is also striking that the Fuggerstädter have not kept a white vest for eleven league games in a row. It is therefore very coherent to bet on both teams scoring in this match. After all, FCA has already scored six standard goals and, as the second most dangerous team in the Bundesliga, is always good for a goal of its own after resting balls.

Augsburg – statistics & current form

Fc Augsburg has held its own in the top flight of German soccer since its first promotion to the Bundesliga in the summer of 2011 and has so far always managed to avoid the arduous process of relegation.

This summer, too, FCA under Enrico Maaßen finished above the line despite a poor haul of just 34 points and ended up 15th. The coach was initially also allowed to continue before those responsible pulled the ripcord after the meager start with just five points from the first seven games.

Won only one of the last eleven Bundesliga home games against Wolfsburg

Now Jess Thorup is expected to maneuver the team back into calmer waters. In their first competitive match under the Dane, the Fuggerstädter put an exclamation mark on their performance and even celebrated a Bundesliga premiere. For the first time ever, Augsburg turned a two-goal deficit into a victory.

The 5-2 win at 1. FC Heidenheim was also only the second time the Bavarian Swabians have scored more than four goals in a match in the Bundesliga (after a 6-0 win over Stuttgart in April 2019). So FCA will now go into their home debut under the new coach with renewed confidence.

Have not kept a clean sheet in any of the last eleven Bundesliga games

However, in the run-up to the match between Augsburg and Wolfsburg, the bookmakers’ odds are swinging in the direction of the visiting team, which is also due to the fact that FCA has only managed to win one of its last eleven home matches against the Lower Saxons (five draws, five defeats).

Moreover, the Fuggerstädter have not kept a clean sheet in their last eleven Bundesliga games in a row. Not only is the club from the Bavarian southwest prone to scoring goals, however, but FCA can also provide goals from literally nowhere at any time, which is underlined by the fact that only Bayern (seven) have scored more standard goals than the Red-Green-Whites (six) so far in 2023/24.

Predicted Augsburg lineup:

Wolfsburg – statistics & current form

VfL Wolfsburg missed the desired return to a European competition in the first year under Niko Kovac. However, because it was conceivably close, there were also very strong phases in the 2022/23 season and ultimately only on the 34th matchday the international starting place was squandered, the coach was nevertheless allowed to continue with full backing.

Initially, the team from Lower Saxony was once again in the fight for Europe. Most recently, however, there have been two defeats in a row, as a result of which the Wolves have slipped down the table to ninth place. Four wins have already been offset by four defeats in 2023/24.

Twelve of 24 possible points are only enough for ninth place

Accordingly, this away game at a direct pursuer is now groundbreaking. VfL is currently four points ahead of the table’s tenth-placed team. If the bet on a home win for the Fuggerstädter at Augsburg against Wolfsburg pans out, this gap would shrink to one point and the Wolves would have to look downwards again.

If, on the other hand, the Green-Whites are able to continue their good away record at the WWK Arena, where only one of the last eleven guest games has been lost (five wins, five draws), they could look directly upwards again. After all, they are only three points off sixth place.

Lost five of last six Bundesliga away games

However, the recent away weakness speaks against the Lower Saxons. Only on Matchday 2 of the current season did VfL celebrate a 2-1 win at 1. FC Köln. The other three guest games of the 2023/24 season were all lost with 2:7 goals.

In fact, the Wolves have lost five of their last six Bundesliga games away from home, which means that this match, in which Kovac will probably have to do without his regular keeper Casteels, will be anything but a foregone conclusion.

Predicted Wolfsburg lineup:

Augsburg – Wolfsburg Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 7 – 9 – 8

The two teams have faced each other a total of 24 times so far, with all 24 encounters taking place in the Bundesliga. The direct comparison reads very balanced with a slight advantage for Wolfsburg. Most recently, however, FC Augsburg remained unbeaten against the Lower Saxons three times in a row (one win, two draws).

Augsburg – Wolfsburg Tip

When it comes to Augsburg vs Wolfsburg, the betting odds are swinging in the direction of the guests from Lower Saxony. However, VfL has not only lost the last two league games in a row, but has also been waiting for another win (two draws, one defeat) for three Bundesliga duels with FCA. Moreover, the Fuggerstädter presented themselves extremely biting on Thorup’s debut and did not let themselves be thrown off track even by a deficit. A home win for the Bavarian Swabians can thus by no means be ruled out.

It is striking that the Bavarian Swabians on the one hand have already scored six goals after standard situations, while conversely they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last eleven Bundesliga games. It is therefore very interesting to predict that both teams will score against Wolfsburg.