Will the Fuggerstädter drag VfL into the relegation maelstrom?

Thirteenth in the table, VfL Wolfsburg are five points clear of 14th place, but because everything from then on is extremely close together, the impression that the Wolves are already out of the woods is decidedly deceptive. They are only six points away from the first relegation spot. If the Lower Saxons lose at the WWK Arena, FCA would drag VfL deep into the relegation maelstrom again.

However, things have been going very badly for the Fuggerstädter against the Wolves recently. FCA has been waiting for another win against VfL for eight matches in the Bundesliga (three draws, five defeats). The last three home games in a row were all lost, which is why the odds are now swinging in the direction of the Green-Whites in the run-up to the clash between Augsburg and Wolfsburg.

It should be noted, however, that the Wolves are by no means in good form. The VfL have failed to score in a third of their league games and, with 14 defeats from 27 games, have already lost twice as many games as in the entire 2020/21 season. The Bavarian Swabians, on the other hand, have only picked up eight points in the second half of the season.

We see the greatest value in this duel between Augsburg and Wolfsburg in betting on less than 2.5 goals.

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

FC Augsburg have never been relegated from the Bundesliga before in their history. Since the Fuggerstädter, who were still playing in the Regionalliga Süd in the 2005/06 season, were promoted to the Beletage of German football in the summer of 2011, FCA have persevered.

It is true that the Bavarian Swabians have already finished three seasons just above the line in 15th place in the table in 2013, 2019 and 2020. However, both direct relegation and a trip to the relegation zone have always been averted.

The second weakest team in the Bundesliga second half

Once again, the Fuggerstädter’s declared goal is to stay above the line, although this is currently only the case due to their better goal difference. Accordingly, it would be important to reverse the trend soon.

After all, three of the last five league games were lost, which was particularly bitter for the Bavarian Swabians in the two 3-2 defeats at Gladbach and Stuttgart. If you look at the second-round table, in which FCA only picked up eight points, there would even be a direct relegation place on the record.

Always scored in 14 of the last 15 Bundesliga games

At least it wasn’t the offensive that was the problem for Markus Weinzierl’s team. Only once in the last 15 Bundesliga games did FCA remain without a goal of their own. Accordingly, it would be important for the defence to improve again so that own goals can be converted into points more regularly in the future.

Given that defensive adjustments were probably at the top of the agenda during the international break, it makes the most sense to bet on under 2.5 goals for Augsburg against Wolfsburg.

Predicted line-up of Augsburg:
Gikiewicz – Iago – Winther – Oxford – Gouweleeuw – Dorsch – Caligiuri – Maier – Vargas – Hahn – Gregoritsch

Last matches played by Augsburg:

Bundesliga
03/19 2022 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 2 Augsburg

03/04 2022 – Arminia Bielefeld 0 – 1 Augsburg

02/27 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund

02/19 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 2 SC Freiburg

02/12 2022 – Gladbach 3 – 2 Augsburg

Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form

VfL Wolfsburg opened the 2021/22 season extremely strongly and even led the Bundesliga table for three matchdays after winning four in a row to start the season. However, because only five of the 23 subsequent matches resulted in three points, the Champions League contender has already missed the boat for Europe.

With seven league games still to play, the Lower Saxons are 13 points off sixth place, which is probably impossible to make up. The disillusionment in the Wolves’ camp is correspondingly great, as the change of coach has also prevented them from climbing back into the top third of the table.

Avoid defeat at any price

It is all the more important that concrete plans for a more successful 2022/23 season can be started soon. For this, however, VfL needs the necessary planning security – i.e. the necessary cushion against the relegation places.

An away win at FC Augsburg, where the last three away games have all been won, would come at exactly the right moment to not only pull further away, but also to keep a direct rival at bay. In any case, the motto at the WWK Arena is “no losing” for Florian Kohfeldt’s team.

In one third of all league games without a goal of their own

The problem in this context is that despite an excellent start to the season, VfL have been regular losers. The Wolves already have 14 defeats on their record, which is twice as many as in the entire previous season seven matchdays before the end of the season.

The situation is aggravated by the lack of goals. The Green-Whites have failed to score a goal of their own in nine of their 27 league games, which is why it comes as a surprise that Kohfeldt’s side arrive as favourites.

Predicted Wolfsburg line-up:
Pervan – Mbabu – Brooks – Bornauw – Lacroix – Steffen – Schlager – Arnold – Kruse – Wind – Nmecha

Last matches played by Wolfsburg:

Bundesliga
03/20 2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 0 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen

03/12 2022 – SC Freiburg 3 – 2 VfL Wolfsburg

03/05 2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 1 – 0 Union Berlin

02/26 2022 – Gladbach 2 – 2 VfL Wolfsburg

02/19 2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 1 – 2 Hoffenheim

Augsburg – Wolfsburg Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Head to head: 6 – 7 – 8

There have been a total of 21 meetings between the two teams and at first glance the head to head comparison reads relatively even. In the recent past, however, this duel has been highly one-sided. VfL have not lost any of their last eight Bundesliga games against FCA (five wins, three draws).

Augsburg – Wolfsburg tip

However, it is extremely difficult to make a prediction on the outcome of the match between Augsburg and Wolfsburg. For both teams, there are several valid arguments against a three-goal win. In addition, the starting position is also very much dependent on Saturday, when several of their fellow competitors in the relegation battle are already in action.

Many constellations are likely to result in FCA and VfL both wanting to avoid defeat at all costs in this Sunday match. With a view to two offensive lines that are not always so effective, there is a lot to be said for a low-scoring game.