Will VfB break free in the Swabian derby?

Although FC Augsburg has not won any of its last five league games (two draws, three defeats), it still has a cushion of five points over the relegation spot six matchdays before the end of the season.

The 16th place in the table, however, is held by VfB Stuttgart, of all teams, who would move correspondingly close to the Fuggerstädter with an away win in the Swabian derby. In principle, betting on Augsburg against VfB Stuttgart is also anything but out of the question.

Since their return to the Beletage of German soccer in the summer of 2020, the Swabians have finally won four of their five league games against FCA (one defeat). Add to that the recent effect of the coaching change. Under Sebastian Hoeneß, VfB picked up four points from two games – as many points as in the nine previous league games in total. However, considering that the White-and-Red have won only one of 14 Bundesliga away games, predicting Augsburg against VfB Stuttgart to win a point from the visitors is still risky.

Finally, the home record of the Bavarian Swabians must also be taken into account. FC Augsburg won four of its six Bundesliga home games in the 2023 calendar year alone (one draw, one defeat) and picked up 13 of a possible 18 points at home in the WWK Arena. Accordingly, it is coherent to go for the goal bet.

Because Stuttgart and Augsburg are the two teams that are currently waiting the longest in the Bundesliga for a clean sheet (seven games), we find the greatest value in betting that both teams will score in this Friday night match.

Augsburg – statistics & current form

Augsburg FC were promoted to the Bundesliga twelve years ago. In addition to a successful qualification for the Europa League, however, the Bavarian Swabians were mostly the fight for class preservation on the agenda.

So far, FCA has always been successful in this regard. Three times, the Fuggerstädter were only 15th in the final table. However, they have always managed to avoid going into relegation, let alone falling into the second division. All those involved are correspondingly optimistic this year as well.

Winless for five league games in a row

After five league games in a row without a win (two draws, three defeats), this home game against VfB Stuttgart will now play an even more central role. After all, this is a genuine six-point game that FCA must not lose under any circumstances.

In the event of a home defeat, the lead over the relegation zone would shrink to two points. A home win, on the other hand, would give Enrico Maaßen’s side a bigger cushion on 16th place and relieve their burden for the time being.

Won four of last six Bundesliga home games

Grundätzlich geht bei Augsburg gegen VfB Stuttgart die Prognose durchaus zum Punktgewinn der bayrischen Schwaben, die im eigenen Stadion im 2023 sehr erfolgreich waren. 13 of 18 possible points could be booked in the WWK Arena since the winter break.

Responsible for this were also brilliant initial phases time and again. Only FC Bayern (13) has scored more Bundesliga goals in the opening quarter than FCA (already ten). However, the fact that the Fuggerstädter have also lost a game at the end five times in the 2022/23 season despite a lead (league-wide record) should also not be concealed…

Last games of Augsburg:

Bundesliga

• 15/04/2023 – RB Leipzig 3 – 2 Augsburg
• 08/04/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 3 1. FC Cologne
• 01/04/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 2 – 2 Augsburg

Friendly club matches

• 23/03/2023 – Augsburg 4 – 2 FC St. Gallen

Bundesliga

• 18/03/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Schalke 04

VfB Stuttgart – statistics & current form

VfB Stuttgart returned to the Bundesliga in the summer of 2020, where the five-time German champions managed to hold on to 15th place in the final table even in their complicated second year. However, the Swabians have not yet really arrived back in the top flight of German soccer, even in their third Bundesliga season in a row.

Six matchdays before the end of the season, the only relegation spot on the books is for the white-and-red team, which is already three points behind the relegation zone and only holds a direct relegation spot because of its better goal difference than promoted Schalke 04.

Four points out of a possible six under Sebastian Hoeneß

It is all the more remarkable that the odds on Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart are swinging in the direction of the visitors, who are also stuck in the bottom of the table because they have only won one of 14 Bundesliga away games in the 2022/23 season, taking them to just eight points away from home.

It should be noted, however, that the recent change of coach has brought a breath of fresh air. Sebastian Hoeneß was the fourth coach of the current season to lead a Bundesliga match for VfB, and he was able to directly record four out of a possible six points – as many points as in the previous nine games under Bruno Labbadia.

Won four of last five Bundesliga games against Augsburg

In addition to the new self-confidence, which was also strengthened by the fact that the Stuttgart team recently scored against Borussia Dortmund despite being outnumbered and trailing by two goals (final score: 3:3), the record against FCA also speaks in favor of VfB.

Since the Swabians returned to the Bundesliga, they have won four of their five derbies against the Fuggerstädter (one defeat). But: In none of these four victories did the Baden-Württemberger remain without conceding a goal. Because Stuttgart have only scored twice in 28 league games, the goal bet for this match is a good one.

Last matches played by VfB Stuttgart:

Bundesliga

• 15/04/2023 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
• 09/04/2023 – VfL Bochum 2 – 3 VfB Stuttgart

DFB Cup

• 05/04/2023 – 1. FC Nürnberg 0 – 1 VfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga

• 01/04/2023 – Union Berlin 3 – 0 VfB Stuttgart

Friendly club matches

• 24/03/2023 – VfB Stuttgart 2 – 0 FC Heidenheim

Augsburg – VfB Stuttgart Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 16 – 8 – 27

The Swabian derby between the two teams has taken place a total of 51 times so far and VfB Stuttgart leads the direct comparison with 27 wins. Since the White-Red’s return to the Bundesliga alone, FC Augsburg have lost four of the five derbies (one win) – including the first leg, which saw a 2-1 defeat at the Mercedes-Benz Arena.

Augsburg – VfB Stuttgart tip

When it comes to Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart, the betting odds are swinging in the direction of the visitors, which is quite a bold assessment. The white-and-red team scored against Borussia Dortmund even when they were outnumbered and took four points from their last two league games. The Fuggerstädter, on the other hand, are extremely strong at home despite a small dip in form with five winless games in a row and picked up 13 of a possible 18 points at the WWK Arena in 2023.

Whoever thus wants to bet on the Schwaben to win a point, it is imperative that they fall back on a hedge here.

With a view to the fact that both teams have been waiting for seven league games without conceding a goal (the longest running series in the league), betting on goals on both sides makes the most sense in our eyes for Augsburg against VfB Stuttgart. For both teams to score, Bet365 offers quotes of 1.70, which we play with six units.