Will FCA follow up with another liberation strike?
The relegation battle in the Bundesliga is extremely tight this season. Up to 13th place, all clubs are still seriously worried about staying in the league. Just five points separate the aforementioned 13th place and the first direct relegation place. This exciting and tricky situation also means that every three points is worth its weight in gold at this stage of the season and has a huge impact on the standings.
If, for example, a prediction of a home win in Wednesday night’s catch-up match between Augsburg and Mainz pays off, the Fuggerstädter would already be able to extend their cushion over the penultimate-placed team to six points. However, they must first complete the complicated task against the Nullfünfer, who could underpin their own ambitions of participating in European competition in 2022/23 in the event of an away treble.
Although FCA defeated VfL Wolfsburg 3-0 in front of their home crowd on Sunday afternoon in a strong performance, coach Markus Weinzierl’s side are not now favourites against the Rheinhessen side. On the contrary, ahead of the Augsburg-Mainz clash, lower odds are being offered on the visitors, who last won an away Bundesliga match at the southern Swabians in 2016. Can the Svensson eleven end this ongoing drought during the week?
Augsburg – statistics & current form
FC Augsburg have long since established themselves in Germany’s top football league. In recent years, the Fuggerstädter have had to endure phases in which they actually had to win points against relegation. But at the end of the day, they always managed to stay in the relegation zone, usually very comfortably.
In the current season, coach Markus Weinzierl’s team still has some work to do in the lower reaches of the table before they start their twelfth Bundesliga year in a row in the summer. The 3-0 win against VfL Wolfsburg at the weekend, which increased the gap to the penultimate and relegation places to three points, gives hope. Apart from that, the performance in front of the home crowd was an important indication for the upcoming tasks.
Constancy remains a foreign word for FCA
It will now be interesting to see whether the southern Swabians can bring the same performance to the pitch three days later. From a purely statistical point of view, this must be doubted, as the Augsburg side have not yet celebrated two victories in a row in the league this season. Four of their seven victories have been followed by defeats, which is something that should be taken into account before making a rash bet on the 14th-placed team in the table between Augsburg and Mainz.
Another aspect to consider is the defence, which only conceded twice in a row on matchdays four and five. Time and again, however, the Fuggerstädter reveal weaknesses in their play against the ball. In four of the last ten games alone, they conceded three or more goals. Against FSV’s good attack, we also think it is unlikely that keeper Gikiewicz will keep his clean sheet.
Due to the home side’s lack of consistency, we share the bookmakers’ assessment, who are offering higher odds on a home win in the Augsburg vs Mainz match. To make matters worse, three players – Uduokhai, Strobl and Sarenren-Bazee – will be absent. Gregoritsch can take time off and would be an option for the starting eleven in place of youngster Pepi. Otherwise, coach Weinzierl has no reason to change his victorious team from the weekend. However, they will have to expect much more resistance than against the harmless Wolves.
Predicted Augsburg line-up:
Gikiewicz – Gumny, Gouweleeuw, Oxford, Iago – Maier, Dorsch – Caligiuri, Pedersen – Pepi, Niederlechner
Last matches played by Augsburg:
Bundesliga
04/03 2022 – Augsburg 3 – 0 VfL Wolfsburg
03/19 2022 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 2 Augsburg
03/04 2022 – Arminia Bielefeld 0 – 1 Augsburg
02/27 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
02/19 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 2 SC Freiburg
Mainz – Statistics & current form
Two completely different faces were shown by Mainz on Sunday in the away match at Borussia Mönchengladbach. In the first half, the “Nullfünfer” only ran behind the action, let the “Fohlen” take control of the game and were lucky that the score was only 0:1 from their point of view at the break. After the break, however, Svensson’s team flourished, acted much more courageously and deservedly equalised 1-1, which was also the final score.
If the Red and Whites can keep up the performance of the second half, we are convinced that a three-goal win will be possible on Wednesday evening at the WWK Arena. Incidentally, it would be the Rheinhessen’s first away win in the Bundesliga since 30 October! Only Hertha and bottom-placed Fürth have scored fewer points away from home than FSV, who have recently shown their potential in the opposition’s stadiums from time to time. For example, last Sunday in Mönchengladbach and a few weeks ago in the 1-1 draw in Freiburg.
Mainz wants to finally end the away curse
We therefore do not take the disappointing away record as a reason to deviate from a prediction on the guest between Augsburg and Mainz. In our eyes, the tenth-placed team, who could even climb to seventh place with a treble on Wednesday night, has more individual quality and a style of play that doesn’t particularly suit FCA.
It is also clear that the greater pressure in the relegation battle rests on the shoulders of the hosts. The Mainz side can play freely and use their fast top players to create pinpricks, especially in the transition game.
Because Svensson’s team has failed to score in only one of its last ten league games and has only conceded two goals in its last seven matches, it is definitely conceivable to play the double chance X2. Especially in view of the fact that Jonny Burkardt is likely to return to the starting eleven after slight muscular problems, thus giving the team even more speed as well as class. Only St. Juste and Burgzorg will not be available.
Predicted line-up of Mainz:
Zentner – Bell, Hack, Niakhaté – Widmer, Stach, Kohr, Aaron – J.-S. Lee, Burkardt – Onisiwo
Last matches played by Mainz:
Bundesliga
04/03 2022 – Gladbach 1 – 1 Mainz 05
03/19 2022 – Mainz 05 4 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
03/16 2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
02/26 2022 – Union Berlin 3 – 1 Mainz 05
02/18 2022 – Mainz 05 3 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Augsburg – Mainz Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Guest matches in the Fuggerstadt have not really been crowned with success for FSV Mainz 05 in recent years. FCA have won all of their last four home games against the Rheinhessen side. The Augsburg side also took all three points from the carnival stronghold on three of the most recent five occasions.
The direct comparison is therefore historically in favour of the home side, although this thesis was reduced to absurdity in the first half of the season. In the matchday eight, the Nullfünfer won 4:1 at home and already led 3:0 at the break. The impressions from this encounter are again in line with our assessment that the Svensson eleven does not really suit FCA this season.
Augsburg – Mainz Tip
The clash between FCA and FSV was supposed to have taken place on the second weekend in March, but the DFL agreed to postpone the match due to numerous positive tests at the Rheinhessen side. The match will now be made up next Wednesday at the WWK Arena.
The betting odds between Augsburg and Mainz are in favour of the visitors, even though they have not won an away match in the Bundesliga since 30 October. The fact that the Nullfünfer are nevertheless favoured is primarily due to the table situation and recent impressions. Only five teams celebrated more victories in the second half of the season than FSV (four), who also have an extremely stable defence. Only Leipzig and Bayern conceded fewer goals than Svensson’s team in 2022.
Another important aspect relates to the home side’s lack of consistency, having never won two in a row this season. After the great performance against Wolfsburg at the weekend, a weaker performance is to be expected, especially when you consider that the Mainz team is not particularly well-suited to FCA from a tactical point of view.
