Will FCA remain unbeaten at home against Freiburg?
We still remember the viral video of Steffen Baumgart from around a fortnight ago, when the coach of the Geißböcke had to watch his team’s game in domestic isolation due to a positive test and, to put it affectionately, gave free rein to his emotions. This coming Saturday, his colleague Markus Weinzierl is now in a similar dilemma. The FCA coach will not be able to assist his team from the sidelines for the same reason.
But that, of course, doesn’t change the fact that the home match against the Sport-Club from Breisgau has an enormously important meaning for the Fuggerstädter.
Despite this, the southern Swabians are not to be underestimated, especially in front of their home crowd. A single home defeat since the beginning of September underlines this assessment, which is further reinforced by the fact that the guests from the Dreisam have also had their problems scoring regularly and consistently in recent weeks. Between Augsburg and Freiburg, a prediction of an away win would therefore be associated with plenty of risk.
Augsburg – Statistics & current form
FC Augsburg are once again in the thick of the relegation battle. While the Fuggerstädter were able to stay above the magic line in the last seasons, they are facing a real marathon until the last matchday in 2021/22. However, FCA have only themselves to blame for their far from ideal starting position in the fight to stay in the relegation zone. Especially in the last few weeks, the long-standing Bundesliga team lost a lot of ground.
Weinzierl’s team won only one of the last seven league games (three draws, three defeats) and thus recorded the second fewest victories and points in a league comparison since matchday 17. Only VfB Stuttgart, who have dropped to penultimate place, were worse in both categories. The defence in particular has not even come close to meeting expectations since the turn of the year. Here, the twelve goals conceded even correspond to the weakest value of all first division teams.
Augsburg do not act like a relegation candidate at home
At first glance, there is a lack of far-reaching arguments for betting on a point win for the hosts between Augsburg and Freiburg. However, a closer look reveals that FCA is usually a very uncomfortable opponent in front of a home crowd.
The Fuggerstädter have collected 15 of their 22 points at home. Only three of the ten home games played were lost. In the past eight games in the WWK Arena, there has only been one defeat. In return, there have been four victories in the period in question, including against FC Bayern, Union Berlin and Gladbach. In nine consecutive home matches, Niederlechner and his offensive colleagues always scored at least one goal. The double chance 1X is therefore definitely worth considering.
A corresponding bet could be combined with the maximum number of three goals, which has only been cracked in 40% of all FCA home games so far. In terms of personnel, coach Markus Weinzierl, who will pass on his on-field duties to his co-coach Reiner Maurer, can almost draw from a full complement. Only Gumny, Strobl and Winther are out. Arne Maier, on the other hand, was able to take time off and is an option for the double six alongside Niklas Dorsch.
Predicted line-up of Augsburg:
Gikiewicz – Framberger, Gouweleeuw, Oxford, Iago – Maier, Dorsch – Hahn, Vargas – Niederlechner, Gregoritsch
Last matches played by Augsburg:
1st Bundesliga
02/12 2022 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 – 2 Augsburg
02/05 2022 – Augsburg 2 – 0 Union Berlin
Club friendlies
01/27 2022 – Augsburg 3 – 3 Jahn Regensburg
1st Bundesliga
01/22 2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 5 – 1 Augsburg
01/16 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
It has become quiet around SC Freiburg. While the Breisgau side had an outstanding start to the season, the form curve has tended to point in the opposite direction in recent weeks.
This negative development can also be seen very well in the away record: While the Sport-Club remained unbeaten in the first five away games of 2021/22 and recorded an average of 2.2 points per game, four of the most recent six matches were lost away from home. The points average was reduced to 0.7. In the calendar year 2022, defeats were suffered in Dortmund (1:5) and at 1. FC Köln (0:1). On both occasions, the Streich eleven was unable to build on the pleasing performances of the previous year.
Freiburg fighting against the dip in form
With this in mind, it is certainly not advisable to predict that Augsburg will win against Freiburg – purely from a statistical point of view. The sixth-placed team in the table, which is still level on points with fourth-placed Leipzig, is also hampered by the fact that none of the past nine away games at FCA have been victorious. Only at FC Bayern have the Breisgauers been guests more often in a row (22) without taking away a three-pointer.
Finally, in order to justify the promising Augsburg vs. Freiburg odds of under 3.5 from the SCF’s point of view, it should be noted that only five of the 23 matches involving Streich’s team resulted in more than three goals. With the exception of homegrown Yannick Keitel, all players are fit for action.
It will be particularly important for the sixth-placed team to start the match well, as the Black Forest side scored 24% of their 34 goals in the opening quarter of the match. Augsburg, meanwhile, have already been beaten nine times in the first 15 minutes (league high!).
Predicted line-up of Freiburg:
Flekken – Kübler, Lienhart, N. Schlotterbeck, Günter – M. Eggestein, Höfler – Sallai, Grifo – Höler – Demirovic
Last matches played by Freiburg:
1st Bundesliga
02/12 2022 – SC Freiburg 1 – 1 Mainz 05
02/05 2022 – 1. FC Köln 1 – 0 SC Freiburg
01/22 2022 – SC Freiburg 2 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
DFB Cup
01/19 2022 – Hoffenheim 1 – 4 SC Freiburg
1st Bundesliga
01/14 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 5 – 1 SC Freiburg
Augsburg – Freiburg Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
Although FC Augsburg are clearly behind in the direct comparison against SC Freiburg with four wins and seven draws as well as eight defeats, the home record of the Fuggerstädter against the Black Forest is, as already mentioned, very good. None of the nine home matches in the Bundesliga was lost by FCA against Sport-Club. Three victories were offset by six draws.
Most recently, however, the Breisgau side remained unbeaten in six consecutive league games against the southern Swabians. For the first time in history, Freiburg could even win three in a row against their upcoming opponents.
Augsburg – Freiburg tip
In the south of the republic, it comes to a landmark match for both clubs on Saturday afternoon. FCA are desperate to climb back above the relegation zone a week before the tough away game in Dortmund, while the visitors from Breisgau would be only too happy to defend sixth place in the standings or extend their lead over the non-European Cup places.
If we take a look at the betting odds before the match between Augsburg and Freiburg, the bookmakers are guided by the aforementioned table constellation and offer slightly lower quotes for the away win. In our eyes, however, the home strength of the Fuggerstädter and the form weakness of the Sport-Club are weighted too weakly.
FCA have lost just one of their last eight home games in the Bundesliga and have never lost at home to their upcoming opponents in nine attempts in the German top flight. Furthermore, the Black Forest side have only picked up a meagre four points from their last six matches as guests in the league. During this period, they have suffered four defeats.
We therefore believe that the hosts will keep at least one point in their own stadium. We also combine this assessment with the fact that a maximum of three goals will be scored in the course of the game, because in view of the defensive strength of Streich’s team, which has the second-best defence in the league, and the usually low-scoring home games of the southern Swabians, no offensive spectacle is to be expected.
