Will Dortmund strike back in the Bundesliga?
Champions League exit, DFB Cup exit and now knocked out in the UEFA Europa League. Borussia Dortmund is playing a disappointingly weak season at cup level. Sad low points were the two most recent matches against Rangers, in which a total of six goals were conceded in 180 minutes. Finally, BVB are back in Bundesliga action late on Sunday afternoon when they host FC Augsburg.
In terms of the table, the Black and Yellows must of course be considered favourites, but the impressions from the last few games have meant that the odds on an away win have increased somewhat ahead of the Augsburg vs Dortmund clash. The situation is further complicated by the fact that coach Marco Rose, who is under pressure, will have to do without his top striker Haaland. In all likelihood, the FCA game will come too soon for the Norwegian.
Apart from that, Borussia have lost two of their last three away games in the Fuggerstadt, so you can definitely talk about a small fear opponent. FCA are fighting to stay in the relegation zone, will certainly put everything on the line in front of their home crowd and would already be satisfied with a draw. This starting position is therefore also one of the main reasons why an isolated prediction on the visitors’ treble between Augsburg and Dortmund might not yield the most promising value.
Augsburg – Statistics & current form
After VfB Stuttgart once again lost in painful fashion on Friday night, suffering the next setback in their fight to stay in the relegation zone, FC Augsburg could be a big winner this weekend. If a bet on a home win between Augsburg and Dortmund pays off, the Fuggerstädter would most likely leave the relegation zone and at the same time extend their lead over their “Swabian” opponents to six points.
Before that, however, there will be an enormously complicated 90 minutes against the current runners-up, against whom they have conceded a series of goals in the past. No other club in the Bundesliga has conceded as many goals as BVB (53). On average, the Black and Yellows scored 2.52 times, which can immediately be taken as an indication of a relatively high-scoring game early on Sunday evening.
Admittedly, when looking at the historical duels, not everything is bad, because in the past 16 (!) encounters against Dortmund in the Bundesliga, Augsburg always scored at least one goal. Consequently, we should also include the bet “Both score” in our portfolio this time.
Augsburg must get a grip on their defence
In particular against the background that the downwardly pointing form curve from the last few weeks is not necessarily due to an offensive that is too weak. In the last twelve league games, Andre Hahn and Co. have only failed to score once. At home, both opponents scored in eight of the eleven matches.
In general, Markus Weinzierl’s team is clearly stronger at home. Four wins, three draws and four defeats at home underline this thesis, although it should also be noted here that FCA also managed to get the ball over the goal line in three of the four home defeats. If you want to make a prediction on an away win between Augsburg and Dortmund, then it makes sense to combine it with the “BTS” addition.
In terms of personnel, the coach, who recently suffered two BL defeats in a row with his team for the first time since October, will have to make changes. Andre Hahn is missing due to his fifth yellow card. Finnbogason, Gumny, Strobl and Zeqiri are absent due to illness or injury. Hopes rest all the more on Michael Gregoritsch, who has already scored four goals after the turn of the year, twice as many as in the whole of 2021.
Predicted line-up of Augsburg:
Gikiewicz – Framberger, Gouweleeuw, Oxford, Iago – Maier, Dorsch – Sarenren Bazee, Vargas – Niederlechner, Gregoritsch
Last matches played by Augsburg:
1st Bundesliga
02/19 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 2 SC Freiburg
02/12 2022 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 – 2 Augsburg
02/05 2022 – Augsburg 2 – 0 Union Berlin
Friendly club matches
01/27 2022 – Augsburg 3 – 3 Jahn Regensburg
1st Bundesliga
01/22 2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 5 – 1 Augsburg
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
In recent weeks and months, Borussia Dortmund have been pilloried several times due to the performances they have shown. However, it has not been as unsettled as it is currently for a long time. In the media, the team is accused of lacking quality.
Internally, things are also bubbling up: according to rumours, the mood in the dressing room is worse than it has been for a long time. Discussions on the pitch and complaints by individual players against their team-mates are also evidence of the shattered relations within the current second-placed team in the league.
After reading this paragraph, one could certainly decide to leave the odds on an away win to the left before the match between Augsburg and Dortmund, but the Black and Yellows have recently shown strong reactions in the Bundesliga. First, Borussia won 3:0 at Union Berlin, before Gladbach was dismantled 6:0 in front of their home crowd the week before.
Dortmund doing very well in the second half of the season so far
With this in mind, we believe that BVB also have it in their own hands on Sunday evening to at least go some way towards forgetting Thursday night’s disappointment in the Europa League. In this respect, the fact that the Westphalians have recently won three away games in a row in the Bundesliga for the first time since May gives us hope. Schwarz-Gelb have not won more than three consecutive away games since 2019/20.
Apart from that, Borussia – together with RB Leipzig – are still the best second-round team in the Bundesliga. Since the turn of the year, Dortmund have recorded 13 points more than FCA, which is why the implied role of favourites – purely from a statistical point of view – is of course understandable.
If Marco Reus and his colleagues bring the available quality onto the pitch, then there is a lot to be said for a victory for the visitors. However, this will hardly come about without conceding a goal, as BVB have conceded at least one goal in twelve of their 16 victories this season. A 4:2 or 3:1 win is therefore more likely in our eyes than a 2:0/3:0 for the visitors, who will have to do without Akanji, Haaland, Reyna and Zagadou.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel – Meunier, Can, Hummels, Guerreiro – Dahoud, Bellingham – T. Hazard, Reus, Brandt – Malen
Last matches played by Dortmund:
Europa League Final Stage
02/24 2022 – Rangers 2 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
1st Bundesliga
02/20 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Europa League Final Stage
02/17 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 4 Rangers
1st Bundesliga
02/13 2022 – Union Berlin 0 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
02/06 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 5 Bayer Leverkusen
Augsburg – Dortmund Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Borussia Dortmund have won 13 of their 21 Bundesliga encounters against FC Augsburg. Away from home, there have been six victories in ten attempts (two draws, two defeats). The two defeats mentioned are due to the most recent three guest appearances at the WWK Arena.
Nevertheless, BVB has a higher point average away from home against no other club in the top flight than against the southern Swabians. In the first leg, by the way, the black-and-yellows had the upper hand with 2:1. In only two of the 13 Bundesliga victories mentioned at the beginning of this article have the Dortmund side played to nil, which in turn confirms our assessment of an away win including goals for both teams.
Augsburg – Dortmund Tip
The bookmakers are expecting BVB to redeem themselves in the league after their Europa League exit and win their fourth away match in a row.
However, we do not believe in a “win to nil”, as was the case recently at Union Berlin and at home against Gladbach. Borussia’s defence has been too weak in recent weeks. Twelve of the 16 Bundesliga victories in the current season came with at least one goal conceded. In eleven of the 13 victories against FCA, the black-and-yellow team has also conceded one goal.
We have therefore decided to combine our bet on the away three for the Rose eleven between Augsburg and Dortmund with the addition that both teams will score.
