Will the first goal decide the match?
On paper, the match between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla still reads like an absolute top match in the Spanish top flight. De facto, however, only the host team is currently living up to the high expectations of a top team. The Rojiblancos, currently in fourth place, are right in the thick of the fight for Champions League tickets, while the visitors from Andalusia have only been able to distance themselves from the relegation places in recent weeks.
With both teams still struggling to reach their corrected goals for the season and considering the past, there is a lot of explosiveness anyway, we can look forward to an exciting and interesting duel on Saturday night. At the moment, more is expected of the Simeone eleven. Between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla, the odds on a home win are lower and the “mattress makers” are therefore the favourites
Because the Colchoneros have recently been trying to gather input for a doctoral thesis with the central question “How do I get as many points as possible with as few goals as possible?”, every goal on Saturday could already bring a small preliminary decision.
So it seems anything but unlikely that the spectators at the Wanda Metropolitano will see few goals. The suspicion of a goalless draw for long stretches of the match also arises with a view to the Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla forecast.
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
After a less than satisfactory first half of the season, Atletico Madrid’s form curve has definitely been pointing in the right direction in recent weeks. The capital club, which can concentrate exclusively on league action after the disappointing exit in the European Cup and the bitter elimination in the Copa del Rey, lost only one of a total of nine La Liga games after the winter break – with 0:1 at home against Barcelona.
Most recently, however, coach Diego Simeone’s team remained unbeaten seven times in a row and also celebrated four victories. All four victories came with a clean sheet, making it clear that the defence, which has been the showpiece of the 2021 champions for many years, has stabilised noticeably.
Defence is once again the trump card for the Rojiblancos
In a review of the past seven matches, keeper Jan Oblak has only had to clear the ball out of the net three times. The last time the Red and Whites conceded more than one goal in the Spanish top flight was on 29 October. Their then opponents from Cadiz were also the only team at national level in 2022/23 to overcome the otherwise solid Atletico defence more than twice.
Unsurprisingly, a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through in most cases. In nine of the Colchoneros’ most recent ten league games, they have scored a maximum of two goals, which is why we are convinced that the odds on under-goals should also pay off on Saturday night between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla.
It is even conceivable that no goal will be scored at all in the first 45 minutes, after all, in the last five La Liga encounters of the fourth-placed team, the score was always 0-0 at the break. In 23 first halves involving Koke, Griezmann and Co. there were only 16 (!) goals to marvel at. Only leaders Barcelona conceded fewer goals before the break than the former Champions League finalists, for whom a 0-0 half-time draw would have gone through in eleven out of 23 cases.
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
La Liga
26/02/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 1 Atletico Madrid
20/02/2023 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
12/02/2023 – Celta Vigo 0 – 1 Atletico Madrid
05/02/2023 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 1 Getafe
29/01/2023 – Osasuna Pamplona 0 – 1 Atletico Madrid
Sevilla – Statistics & current form
The situation at Sevilla FC is still extremely tense. The Andalusians had the feeling that they could build a small cushion on the relegation zone, but after the latest impressions it seems certain that the southern Spaniards may have to fight for their relegation status until the (bitter) end of 2022/23.
After just four points from their last four games and an extremely annoying 3-2 defeat at home to Osasuna the previous week, the 14th-placed team has just two points more than Valencia in the last relegation spot. Instead of looking forward to the bonus matches in the UEFA Europa League round of 16 against Fenerbahce, where they might be aiming to win the title, the focus should be on the dreary everyday life in the league.
Sevilla usually concedes few goals before the break
Adding to the difficulty for Saturday is the fact that coach Jorge Sampaoli’s side have barely got a leg up away from home of late. The last time the “Nervionenses” won a game in the Spanish La Liga was in mid-October. In the last six away games, they have only managed three points (three draws, three defeats). In three cases, under 2.5 would have been crowned with success, five times even under 3.5.
On a positive note, the Sevillistas have often started matches very well in the recent past. They have conceded only one goal in the last eight first halves in the top flight of Spanish football. In total, the twelve goals conceded in 23 first halves are very respectable. At the same time, this statistic naturally serves as an additional argument to justify the odds on a 0-0 after 45 minutes before the clash between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla.
Some players are not available due to injury or suspension. In addition, it will be exciting to see whether one or the other player is not already in the Europa League round of 16 first leg next Thursday. After all, the international competition is the only chance to be on the European stage in 2023/24. That’s one of the reasons why we would definitely refrain from predicting an away win between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla
Last games played by Sevilla:
La Liga
27/02/2023 – Sevilla FC 2 – 3 Osasuna Pamplona
Europa League Final Stage
24/02/2023 – PSV Eindhoven 2 – 0 FC Sevilla
La Liga
19/02/2023 – Rayo Vallecano 1 – 1 FC Sevilla
Europa League Final Stage
17/02/2023 – Sevilla FC 3 – 0 PSV Eindhoven
La Liga
12/02/2023 – Sevilla FC 2 – 0 Mallorca
Atletico Madrid – Sevilla Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
This is the 158th time these clubs have met in Spain’s top football league. Atletico Madrid lead the direct comparison with 60 wins compared to 45 defeats and already 52 draws. At home, the record reads even more impressive over the years.
In fact, the last time the Andalusians won an away game against the Rojiblancos was in 2008. Sevilla have therefore been waiting for a win in the Spanish capital for 13 attempts. However, they have also suffered “only” six defeats. The teams have drawn seven times. Atletico won the first leg 2-0 in the current season.
Atletico Madrid – Sevilla Tip
At prime time on Saturday evening at 21:00 there is a match in the Spanish La Liga between two teams that cannot really be satisfied with the course of the season. In the case of the visitors from Sevilla, however, again in a completely different dimension. Sampaoli’s team is still struggling with relegation worries, while the home side, in fourth place, is at least aiming for a Champions League spot.
The situation in the table therefore provides clear indications as to why Atletico Madrid are favoured against Sevilla according to the betting odds. However, as the teams have enjoyed splitting the points in the past and with the expected low number of goals, a draw is also more likely, we deliberately refrain from betting on the three-way market.
Instead, we’ll try a bet between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla on the score still being 0-0 at the break. The Colchoneros have failed to score in the first 45 minutes of their last five La Liga games. The Nervionenses have also conceded just one goal in the past eight first periods. Statistically, there are enough arguments to suggest that the top odds of 2.70 are an attractive value.
