Will the Blancos continue their winning ways in the derby?
On Sunday evening, all of Spain and, I guarantee, much of the rest of the football-interested world will be looking to the Spanish capital for the 233rd edition of the Derbi Madrileño. The Blancos have won all five of their league games so far and also beat Union Berlin in the Champions League during the week. Accordingly, the tip for Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid is that the royals will win the next point.
Atletico Madrid have been in good form in 2023, losing only four of their 27 league games in the calendar year (17 wins, six draws). However, the Colchoneros recently lost 3-0 at Valencia before failing to hold on to their lead in the Champions League during the week. So the prediction is now also leaning towards the Blancos in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid.
The Madrid city derby has been firmly in the hands of the royals of late anyway. Real Madrid have lost just one of their last 14 meetings with their city rivals in La Liga (six wins, seven draws) and could now become the first club alongside Levante to inflict two home defeats in a row on the Rojiblancos since moving to the Metropolitano.
We find a lot of value in betting on the double chance X2, which at least does not exclude the possibility of the points being shared. Moreover, because the Derbi Madrileño traditionally does not produce an excessive number of goals (in 15 of the last 16 encounters, a maximum of three goals were scored), we combine this bet with a tip on less than 3.5 goals.
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
The last time Atletico Madrid won the national championship in Spain was in the 2020/21 season, before the Colchoneros had to give way to their city rivals a year later and FC Barcelona this summer.
The Rojiblancos were also unable to match the success of the 2010s at international level, winning the Europa League three times and reaching the final of the Champions League twice.
Winless in two consecutive competitive matches
In the new season, the squad of long-time coach Diego Simeone has lacked consistency so far. A surprising 7-0 win at Rayo Vallecano was followed by a 3-0 defeat at Valencia CF.
Overall, Atletico Madrid are in seventh place with seven points out of a possible twelve, with a make-up game against Sevilla still to be played. The match was cancelled due to heavy rain. In the Champions League, meanwhile, the Colchoneros looked set for an opening win at Italian runners-up Lazio Roma before conceding an equaliser just before the end of the game at the hands of their opponents’ goalkeeper of all people.
Won only one of the last 14 derbies
The bottom line is that the Rojiblancos’ results have been somewhat mixed, although a win in the Derbi Madrileño would of course change the assessment completely. However, there is not much to suggest that Atletico Madrid will win at home against Real Madrid.
After all, of the last 14 city derbies that have taken place in La Liga, the Simeone eleven has only won one game (seven draws, six defeats). But: In the last eleven Madrid derbies in league play, Atletico Madrid have always scored at least one goal without exception (24 goals in total). So the situation is not completely hopeless either.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Atletico Madrid (Expected line-up) 3-5-2
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid still managed to salvage the 2022/23 season by winning the Copa del Rey at the end for the first time in nine years. A title that many of the long-time key players – including Toni Kroos – still lacked in their collection.
However, it was very disappointing that the Blancos played almost no role at all in the battle for the championship and were also defeated by Manchester City in the Champions League semi-finals with a clear aggregate score of 1:5.
Five league games, five wins and 10:3 goals
The next disappointment followed in the summer transfer window, when Kylian Mbappé did not sign for the Royal League as expected. Instead, Real Madrid started the season with new signing Joselu and only one regular centre-forward, which was viewed critically by many experts.
However, the interim balance could hardly be more positive. The Merengues are the only team in La Liga to have won all five of their league games, and they sit at the top of the table with 15 points and 10 goals to 3. In the Champions League, meanwhile, they forced a deserved 1-0 victory over Union Berlin in the fourth minute of stoppage time.
Will Bellingham make the difference again?
This means the Blancos have won all six of their competitive games in the 2023/24 season, which is why the odds are swinging very cautiously in the direction of the Spanish record champions when it comes to Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid, where Jude Bellingham has hit maximum.
The newcomer, who arrived from Dortmund in the summer for around €100 million, not only scored the late goal in the Champions League, but has also been responsible for five goals and an assist in five La Liga matches. Now the 20-year-old could also come into focus in his first Derbi Madrileño.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Real Madrid (Expected line-up) 4-3-1-2
Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Head to head: 57 – 60 – 115
The Derbi Madrileño has already taken place 232 times and with 115 victories, almost exactly half of all games went to Real Madrid. The Blancos also last won 2-1 away at the Colchoneros in the 2022/23 season and have lost just one of their last 14 La Liga city derbies overall (six wins, seven draws).
Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid Tip
Bottom line, our prediction for Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid is for a point win for the in-form Blancos, who may be lacking a goalscorer up front but are unstoppable at the moment with Jude Bellingham in absolutely captivating form. The Colchoneros, on the other hand, just lost 3-0 to Valencia and also missed out on success in the Champions League. In addition, only one of the last 14 Madrid city derbies has been won in La Liga (seven draws, six defeats).
Moreover, in 15 of the last 16 derbies, the maximum number of goals has been three. In seven of the last eight duels, it was even less than 2.5 goals. Accordingly, the combined bet on the double chance X2 at under 3.5 goals is coherent.
