Madrid derby with plenty of explosiveness – not only sporting
Before the Derby Madrileño everything revolves around the question: Will Atletico make the Pasillo or not? The pasillo, the honourable salute before kick-off, is the number one topic of conversation in La Liga beforehand, as it has become a tradition to pay this honour to a Spanish team that has just won a title.
Now, however, newly crowned champions Real Madrid are hosting city rivals Atletico Madrid, of all teams, at the Wanda Metropolitano on matchday 35 in La Liga. Atletico are obviously reluctant to pay their respects to their arch-rivals in such a subservient manner, the humiliation of having to applaud the Blancos in their own stadium is too great and painful.
This topic is currently dominating the gazettes in Spain ahead of Sunday’s derby (9pm), in which nothing is at stake for Real, but everything for Atletico. Namely, qualification for the Champions League.
Pasillo or not, Real can really spoil the home game for the Rojiblancos and plunge the red and whites deeper into a minor crisis. Despite recently winning the championship and reaching the final of the Champions League, the betting odds on Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid show the home side as favourites – probably because they have to win, while Real can go into the game relaxed. But this derby still offers plenty of explosive action, both on and off the pitch.
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
The derby comes either at an inopportune time for Atletico or just in time – depending on your point of view. Derbies are emotional, and it is precisely this emotionality that Atletico needs in the final spurt in the fight for the Champions League. On the other hand, Real are also a fearful opponent for the Rojiblancos, as coach Cholo Simeone’s team have not won against their city rivals in La Liga since the 2015/16 season (more on that below).
Atletico’s form is not good at the moment, so Simeone’s team is worried about CL participation. The fact that they now have to play a derby against Real, who are brimming with confidence, is not necessarily good news. In three of the last four games, Atletico disappointed all along the line, failed to score a goal and lost two of those games. Last Saturday’s 2-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao was another disappointment, but visiting matches at the San Mames are also extremely difficult. Much more disappointing – because more surprising – were the 0:1 in Mallorca and the 0:0 at home against Granada, two relegation candidates against whom three points were an absolute must.
Looking at the current form, there is not much to be said for betting on a home win for Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid – especially because Real Madrid travels to the Wanda Metropolitano euphoric.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak – Gimenez, Hermoso, Reinildo – Llorente, Kondogbia, Koke, De Paul, Carrasco – Griezmann, Correa
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
La Liga
01/05/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 2 – 0 Atletico Madrid
20/04/2022 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 0 Granada
17/04/2022 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Espanyol
Champions League Final
14/04/2022 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 0 Manchester City
La Liga
09/04/2022 – Mallorca 1 – 0 Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
The euphoria at the royals could not be greater. At the weekend, Real celebrated the championship title and on Wednesday, once again, the resurrection from the (supposed) dead, when they reached the Champions League final against Manchester City after trailing in an epic match after extra time.
So the confidence is enormous, but there may also be a drop in tension for the Blancos. The prestigious Madrileño derby is on the agenda, but Real have nothing at stake. Therefore, it is questionable how much the royals will be able to motivate themselves for the game.
Real Madrid with back-to-back derby wins against Atletico
Because Real Madrid are surprisingly the clear underdogs. If you place a bet on the newly crowned champions to win against Real Madrid, you will find odds of 3.60 on average. This is quite surprising and naturally also offers an interesting chance.
After all, Real feels right at home against Atletico: as mentioned, Real’s last derby defeat in La Liga was in the 2015/16 season. Real Madrid has therefore been unbeaten in La Liga for eleven derby games. In five of the last seven league games, Atletico did not even score a goal. Across competitions, it is eight games without defeat from Real’s point of view, as Atleti won 4-2 after extra time in the 2018/19 UEFA Super Cup. Given these numbers, it is not far-fetched to predict another win for the visitors in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois – Carvajal, Militao, Fernandez, Mendy – Casemiro, Kroos, Modric – Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius Jr.
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
Champions League Final
05/05/2022 – Real Madrid 3 – 1 Manchester City
La Liga
30/04/2022 – Real Madrid 4 – 0 Espanyol
Champions League Final
27/04/2022 – Manchester City 4 – 3 Real Madrid
La Liga
21/04/2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 1 – 3 Real Madrid
18/04/2022 – Sevilla FC 2 – 3 Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid Tip
Looking at Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid odds on Real is thus surprising and offers resourceful bettors an interesting chance. However, the pressure is clearly on Atletico’s side in this match – that can spur or paralyse. Meanwhile, Real can play with complete freedom and the newly crowned champions and Champions League finalists have plenty of self-confidence.
Sporting explosiveness is therefore a given anyway, the Pasillo theme can heat up the Derby Madrileño a little more in advance – or at least the crowd at the Wanda Metropolitano as well as Atletico’s team, which can definitely use an emotional boost.
For us, another Atletico derby defeat is hard to imagine, as the Rojiblancos will be on fire and Real Madrid simply don’t have to give their all. But given the wave of euphoria on which Real is swimming, an Atletico treble is not on our betting list either. Therefore, our prediction for Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid is: Draw.
