Will Las Palmas make the Atletico crisis worse?
The mood at the two clubs could hardly be more different before their clash: on Sunday afternoon, Atletico Madrid will host UD Las Palmas at the Metropolitano and are, of course, the clear favorites, as the betting odds without tax before Atletico Madrid vs. Las Palmas show. But will it really be a clear-cut game?
Because Atletico is in crisis, while the relegation candidates from Gran Canaria are in extremely good spirits after the change of coach, with two wins in a row. Las Palmas have hope again, but at Atletico they are more at a loss to explain why things have gone so badly recently. For this reason, the Atletico Madrid vs. Las Palmas tip for an unchallenged home win is not quite the sure-fire success that the odds suggest.
Can Las Palmas also prove their rising form in the Metropolitano and inflict the next point loss on the Rojiblancos? What speaks for the guests from the vacation island, which betting tips offer good value, how is the head-to-head comparison of both clubs? We will look at this in this preview, including our own Atletico Madrid vs. Las Palmas prediction at the end.
Atletico Madrid – statistics & current form
In the midst of the crisis, there was a small sense of achievement during the week: in the Copa del Rey, Atletico Madrid fulfilled their duty at the Catalan amateur club UE Vic and advanced to the second round with an unadorned 2-0 victory. However, even this game was a test of patience, with Julian Alvarez only scoring the opening goal from the penalty spot with ten minutes remaining.
Nevertheless, there was something to cheer about at the end, which has been rare of late. Of the last six games, coach Cholo Simeone’s side have won just one, conceding three defeats in the process. In the Champions League, they even suffered two defeats in a row, a 4-0 loss at Benfica and a bitter 3-1 defeat against Lille. Last weekend, Atletico also lost 1-0 at Betis in La Liga.
Atletico Madrid in poor form – will Las Palmas take advantage?
It is not really explainable why Atletico are currently not performing well. Defense chief Robin Le Normand is missing at all corners and ends, but otherwise Diego Simeone actually has his top eleven available. Without Le Normand, the defense has recently been shakier than ever, with a whopping eleven goals conceded in the aforementioned six games before the cup clash and not a single clean sheet. Le Normand will also be missing against Las Palmas, and given the state of both teams, we think an Atletico Madrid vs. Las Palmas tip on a goal for the guests is an interesting one. Las Palmas are coming to the Spanish capital full of confidence and definitely have something to gain against the crisis-ridden and shaky hosts.
Las Palmas – Statistics & current form
What a change of coach can sometimes achieve. Rarely has a change of coach worked so well right from the start as it has for UD Las Palmas. During the international break, the then winless bottom-of-the-table UD Las Palmas sacked the hapless Luis Carrion and replaced him with Diego Martinez, formerly a successful coach at Granada a few years ago.
Carrion took up his post only in the summer and has not been able to celebrate a victory. Under Martinez, that changed immediately. Las Palmas were revived by the change of coach, and on his debut, Martinez celebrated an important 3-2 victory over Valencia, thus leaving the bottom of the table. Las Palmas also ended a run of 23 matches without a win. The first three points of the season were followed immediately by the second. Last weekend, Las Palmas also beat FC Girona 1-0, picking up their second three points under Martinez at home.
The Las Palmas offense is not to be underestimated
Two games, two wins – few would have expected this perfect start under their new coach. Las Palmas are now likely to be brimming with confidence, and will be hoping to get something out of the Metropolitano against a Atletico side that has been struggling.
Either way, the islanders will certainly not be hiding, as Las Palmas have the fifth-highest possession rate in La Liga (56%) and are sixth in terms of shots on goal (4.5 per game). No team in the bottom third of the table scores more goals than Las Palmas, who have only been kept scoreless in two of their 11 games this season.
We expect an exciting game with an open face, because defense is Las Palmas’ big problem. They have conceded 19 goals already – the third-highest tally in La Liga. What’s more, no team has a higher xG-conceded value (20.1). In other words, Las Palmas are allowing their opponents many shots and scoring chances. It could be a lively game, as neither of their defensive lines are in good command.
Atletico Madrid – Las Palmas Direct comparison / H2H record
The Atletico Madrid vs. Las Palmas betting odds on the double chance X2 are a whopping 3.70 on average – exciting value, but of course not without risk. Because Atletico Madrid have only lost two of their last 24 home games in La Liga this and last season.
Historically, there have only been three defeats and seven draws in 40 home games against Las Palmas. 75 percent of all home games have ended in victories for Atletico.
Atletico’s last league home defeat against Las Palmas was in the 1969/70 season!
Atletico Madrid – Las Palmas Tip
Can Atletico finally win again or will the Rojiblancos continue to falter and underpin their weak form against basement boys Las Palmas? After all, the islanders have made a perfect start under new coach Martinez and have won twice in a row, so they will be full of confidence when they take to the Metropolitano pitch, which has not been as strong as it used to be. In the Champions League, they suffered a home defeat against Lille, but in La Liga they have already drawn two of five games.
The unstable defense is the main problem. Las Palmas are a team that likes to have the ball and play with it courageously, but at the same time has serious problems at the back, which is why Alvarez, Griezmann and Co. should have a few opportunities. We therefore believe in the home victory of the favorites, but in our Atletico Madrid vs. Las Palmas prediction, we are targeting Atletico’s success with conceding a goal.
