Will last year’s finalist win in Spain?
The first four quarter-finalists in the UEFA Champions League were already determined last week, and the field will be completed on Tuesday and Wednesday. Excitement is guaranteed, as the first legs of all four matches were very close (two draws, two narrow 1:0 wins). One of the two teams with the narrow advantage is last year’s finalists Milan. The second leg will take place in the Spanish capital, with bookmakers offering the lowest odds for the visitors in the three-way market for the clash between Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan.
This assessment is a little surprising, as Diego Simeone’s Rojiblancos are traditionally very strong at home. Moreover, Italian teams do not necessarily have a reputation for impressing outside their home country. However, it cannot be denied that Lautaro Martinez & Co. have been much stronger this season than Antoine Griezmann & Co. have been for the Spaniards. What’s more, the home side’s dress rehearsal against a relegation candidate was surprisingly unsuccessful and the visitors are not in top form. Accordingly, we agree and see a prediction against a home win for Atletico Madrid against Inter Milan as sensible
Because of the narrow lead from the first leg, the Italian visitors will not have to take many risks. Especially as the game progresses, the Nerazzurri will be happy to take a possible draw with them.
Atletico Madrid – statistics & current form
Fourth place in the Spanish LaLiga is the highest possible position for the Rojiblancos this season. However, this would be synonymous with qualifying for the upcoming top flight. However, since last weekend, Simeone’s team have had to worry about this place more than ever. In a complete surprise, they lost their dress rehearsal at relegation candidates Cadiz 2-0. Once again, Atletico Madrid performed poorly away from home and conceded their seventh defeat in their 14th away game of the season
Impressive home record as a glimmer of hope
Rivals Athletic Bilbao are just two points behind the Rojiblancos, who face FC Barcelona after the Inter game at the weekend. In the worst-case scenario, a horror week lies ahead, with fifth place in the league looming alongside a CL exit. The glimmer of hope is clearly the very strong home record, as this is also the reason why the Rojiblancos are in fourth place in the Spanish LaLiga. Antoine Griezmann & Co. scored 40 out of a possible 42 points in front of a home crowd.
With the fans behind them, Diego Simeone’s 50th CL home game should be a comeback. The Argentine coach has only lost five of his 49 CL home games to date. However, a 32nd win will be necessary to prevent Atletico Madrid from being knocked out for the fourth time following a first-leg defeat. Only twice (2014/15 and 2015/16) have the Spaniards shown comeback qualities and made up for a first-leg defeat.
It will be a race against time for Frenchman Antoine Griezmann, who has been absent recently due to ankle problems. Although Alvaro Morata is Atletico’s top scorer with 14 goals this season, the loss of Griezmann would be impossible for the home side to compensate for. This question mark is one of the reasons why the bookmakers rate Atletico Madrid as underdogs.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
The 20th Scudetto in the club’s history is now only a matter of time. After SSC Napoli took all the excitement out of Serie A last season, Inzaghi’s side are making things clear this season. After 28 match days, the Nerazzurri have no fewer than 75 points with an impressive goal difference of 70:13. Just four games (three draws and one defeat) have not been won. With ten games remaining and a 16-point lead, winning the title is already possible in April
No defeats on the international stage
In total, Inzaghi’s side have only lost twice this season. In the league, the Milanese conceded defeat at home to Sassuolo, while the Blue & Blacks also lost in the Coppa Italia to strong FC Bologna – also at home. This means that Inter have not lost a single game away from home this season. The Italians have also not conceded a defeat on the international stage, winning three and drawing three matches in their group with Austrian side Red Bull Salzburg.
Their narrow first-leg victory means they have a very good chance of progressing, as seven of the eight knockout matches in which the Nerazzurri have won the first leg have ended in promotion. The only exception was in the 2005/06 season, when Inter were beaten by Villarreal after a home win. Trips to Spain have not been successful in the past anyway, as the Nerazzurri have gone ten CL away games without a win. For this reason, we also refrain from betting directly on the visitors in Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan. With the Draw No Bet, on the other hand, we see value in the draw.
In terms of personnel, Inter will be without Marko Arnautovic, the goalscorer from the first leg. Carlos August and Juan Cuadrado are also missing. All in all, however, no regular players are missing and Inter will be able to line up with their best players.
Predicted Inter Milan line-up:
Atletico Madrid – Inter Milan head-to-head comparison / H2H result
This clash pits two teams against each other who have already left their mark on the international stage. It is therefore all the more surprising that the first leg was actually the first ever meeting between the two teams. A goal from Austrian Marko Arnautovic gave the Nerazzurri a narrow lead going into the second leg. The result was close, but the course of the game was relatively clear, as Inter recorded a 19:7 shot ratio, with not a single Atletico shot on Yann Sommer’s goal.
A glimmer of hope for Simeone’s side is the fact that they have won seven of their last nine home games against Serie A teams. Inter, on the other hand, last won a home game in Spain in October 2004 (5-1 against Valencia) and have since failed to win in ten attempts (three draws, seven defeats).
Atletico Madrid – Inter Milan betting tip
The result in the first leg was close, but this did not reflect the performance on show, as Inter were superior for the entire duration of the game. This is another reason why Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan on Wednesday evening offers the lowest odds on the visitors. However, we have already mentioned above that we are refraining from this bet. Basically, the Rojiblancos are very strong at home, while Inter Milan do not have good memories of Spain
Due to the very strong Inter defense, Simeone’s team cannot take too many risks early on, as two Atletico goals are not to be expected. What’s more, there are hardly any teams stronger than teams from Italy when it comes to defending a narrow lead. We see no sign of many goals being expected in this match-up and use five units as the bet for the under 2.5.
