Can Atleti beat city rivals Getafe?
Atletico Madrid and Getafe FC face each other on Sunday afternoon for the 19th matchday of La Liga. The hosts want to follow up their compulsory victory against Slovan Bratislava in the premier class with a victory against their city rivals in the derby. The signs for another success of Los Colchoneros are anything but bad. The hosts have won their last ten competitive games in a row and have not lost to Getafe since 2019. The eleventh win in a row is now set to follow against their rivals from their own city.
Meanwhile, Jose Bordalas’ men are of course hoping to collect important points in the fight against relegation in this derby. Can Diego Simeone’s hosts win as the bookmakers expect? In our Atletico Madrid vs Getafe betting tip, we are leaning towards a home win for Atleti, and thus continue their incredible winning streak.
For the men of coach Jose Bordalas, a point in the Metropolitano would already be considered a success. Since 2019, the club has not been able to beat the boys from the red part of the capital. The bookmakers are therefore confident in their Atletico Madrid v Getafe prediction that the hosts will be able to play to their squad strengths in this clash. According to AI analysis, the visitors’ defensive problems are (still) too serious for them to be able to get a point against Alvarez & Co. in their own backyard.
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Los Colchoneros will host FC Getafe in an important La Liga game after their midweek win. The good form should be maintained with the next victory in the Metropolitano against the city rivals. During the week of training, coach Simeone praised the mentality and character of his team. These qualities will be needed by the hosts against the combative guys from Getafe. On the one hand, the opponent is in a rather poor form. However, the Argentine coach has often enough warned that in a derby, even as the clear favorite, the guest should not be underestimated.
With 1.41 xGoals per league game, the offense is always a dangerous factor. The mentality exemplified by Simeone is currently more present than ever. Tactical adjustments during the game are not a problem, as in the 4-3 win against Sevilla. And the ability of the offense to implement them immediately makes the capital city team a contender for the title this season. This applies to both the league and the Champions League.
The defense, on the other hand, has always been the ace up the sleeve of the Argentine head coach. But this season, with 0.98 expected goals conceded (4th place) and only 11 actually conceded, they are currently the league’s best defense, along with Real Sociedad (11) and Real Madrid (13). The hosts’ back four play just 3.2 bad passes per 90 minutes (91.5% pass completion rate) (2nd in La Liga) and the fourth-most progressive passes (7.9 per game). Thus, the defensive unit not only helps to defend, but also initiates its own dangerous attacking actions. This could be crucial in Atletico Madrid’s game against Getafe, as the AI forecast sees the home side clearly in control of the game with 64:36 percent possession.
Winning streak to continue after this matchday
The good flow of the last few weeks has given the capital city team a certain self-confidence. The hosts want to keep the pressure on Barcelona and Real Madrid high with another win, because if they do that over Getafe, they would be level on points with the Catalans in the table. Atletico have shown their mentality several times in recent weeks and top transfer Julian Alvarez is also slowly coming into his own. The bookmakers are offering strong odds of up to 2.25 for the Argentine to score against Atletico Madrid against Getafe, which, given his current form, is well worth considering.
Getafe – statistics & current form
There are not many reasons for optimism for the visitors from Getafe. The team statistically has one of the worse defenses in the league with 1.49 expected goals conceded per game, but the 13 goals conceded actually do not reflect this value at all. Based on this low number of goals conceded, Jose Bordalas’ team has one of the best defenses in the league (5th place). However, they create too few opportunities up front and so they are hovering in 16th place with 16 points after 16 games, always in fear of relegation, as the danger zone is currently only three points away.
The guests’ offense is significantly worse than their own defense. They have scored a mere eight goals from open play this season. With only 0.78 xGoals per game, the offensive line is statistically much too harmless and cannot support the defense in any second of the match. Only 2.2 progressive passes per game find their way into the attacking third and the finishing precision is a poor 20.7 percent (only about every 5th shot is on the opponent’s goal).
In addition, the team has a miserable conversion rate of only 5.78 percent of big chances, and with these values, you just can’t be competitive in La Liga in the long run. A sudden improvement is not to be expected, so the prediction of another away defeat for Atletico Madrid against Getafe is quite understandable.
Can the defense hold out without Djene if necessary?
The injured Djene (muscle injury) is questionable for this game and if he is unable to play, it would be the biggest loss for the defense. The left-footed defender was already on Barcelona and Bilbao’s shopping list last season because he is feared for his goal-scoring ability in set pieces. Getafe statistically scores 0.36 points more with Djene (0.67 without Djene – 1.12 with Djene). For set-pieces, they would have one or two other players in the team if necessary, but the starting defender would be irreplaceable for the team if he were to be absent.
Atletico Madrid – Getafe Head to head comparison / H2H record
Both teams have faced each other ten times in a competitive game so far since 2020. The hosts have won seven of those games, while Getafe have not won any games. Three games ended in a draw. In the modern era, therefore, a clear trend can be seen, which is why the AI forecast against Getafe is uniformly against the guests for Atletico Madrid.
Atletico Madrid – Getafe Tip
The hosts from the capital will start this game as clear favorites against the combative guests from Getafe, not least because of the morale they have shown and the better quality of their squad. In four of Atletico’s last five games, there have been more than 2.5 goals and at least one goal before half-time, which indicates a new dynamic in Simeone’s team’s games. With the self-confidence gained, even after the last last-minute success of the hosts (4-3 against Sevilla C.F) last matchday of La Liga, the hosts have developed a mentality that should give the men from the red part of the city the qualification for the premier class in the long term. We are strongly inclined to predict another home win for Los Colchoneros, but we are even more certain that there will be a goal in the first half.
Therefore, our betting tip for the Atlético Madrid v Getafe game is: 1st half – Over 0.5 goals at odds of 1.50 at the top.
