Will BVB secure a good starting position in Spain?

The Dortmund weeks of truth enter the next round. On Wednesday evening, BVB will face the Spanish capital in the quarter-final first leg of the UEFA Champions League. On paper, the Black & Yellows have been drawn against Atletico Madrid, a feasible opponent, although coach Diego Simeone’s side have impressively demonstrated that they are undoubtedly a force to be reckoned with by advancing against Inter Milan.

This is one of the reasons why, in the run-up to the first match at the Civitas Metropolitano between Atletico Madrid and Dortmund, significantly lower odds are being offered on the “Colchoneros” to reach the semi-finals

In the first leg on Wednesday evening, the favorites will also be the Madrid side, who, in addition to the home bonus, also have the advantage of experience. This is also supported by the fact that the last time Borussia won a CL quarter-final match away from home was in 1997, while the “Rojiblancos” have reached at least the quarter-finals six times in the past ten years and even reached the final on two occasions.

With regard to the Atletico Madrid vs. Dortmund prediction, however, it must also be taken into account that both teams have impressed time and again this season with their inconsistency and have generally had fewer problems letting their opponents take control of the game

In view of the fact that form on the day will have a serious influence on the result on Wednesday evening, a potential bet on the three-way market is not necessarily our preferred approach. Instead, there is a lot to suggest that two clubs will meet at eye level and that a rather tough game will be the result. Those who share this view will find an extensive range of under bets at Interwetten. The Austrian bookmaker also gives you the opportunity to benefit from the Interwetten deposit bonus. New customers get up to 100 euros for free!

Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form

Fourth in La Liga, a whopping 17 (!) points behind city rivals and leaders Real Madrid and just two points ahead of fifth place, which – as things stand – would no longer entitle them to participate in the reformed CL group stage 24/25, Atletico Madrid have had an average season at national level so far, with a tendency to disappoint. In the Champions League, however, the “Colchoneros” have made it to the last eight for the seventh time in their last eleven appearances.

In the round of 16, the Spanish top team eliminated last year’s finalists Inter Milan, despite losing the first leg 1-0 in Italy. Atletico fought their way through to extra time and finally into the penalty shoot-out, where keeper Oblak became the hero, with a 2:1 win after 90 minutes in the second leg. It also showed once again how difficult it is to compete away from home against Simeone’s team at international level

Atletico Madrid love the knockout character of the top flight

In 16 home games in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League, Madrid have never lost under Diego Simeone. Ten wins compared to six draws. The defensive statistics are even more outstanding, with a total of just four goals conceded in those 16 matches. In twelve cases (75%), the Red & Whites even kept a clean sheet! Unsurprisingly, the odds for a home win between Atletico Madrid and Dortmund on Wednesday are therefore lower on the one hand and lower on under-goals on the other.

For the sake of completeness, it has to be said that Simeone’s team is nowhere near as stable this season as it was in previous years, but it clearly has the talent to excel defensively in important games. In LaLiga, for example, they conceded just two goals in 180 minutes against Real Madrid, the same number they conceded in two knockout matches against Inter Milan. Since both Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund tend to play a transitional game and like to cede possession to their opponents, the subjective, tactical prediction is in line with the betting odds that this could be a match with stingy attacking lines.

However, when the La Liga fourth-placed side do get dangerously close to the opposition’s goal, Antoine Griezmann will usually have his feet in the game. The Frenchman, who was able to fully recover from his injuries during the international break and last weekend, is now the top scorer in Atletico Madrid’s Champions League history with 32 goals. Griezmann has already scored six goals in eight games this season. Should the 33-year-old add to his tally again on Wednesday, Bet-at-Home is offering maximum odds of 2.80 between Atletico Madrid and Dortmund. As a new and existing customer, you can benefit from the Bet-at-Home voucher!

Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

If BVB’s dress rehearsal on Saturday evening had not gone down the drain in the 1-0 defeat at home to VfB Stuttgart, the Black & Yellows would probably be oozing confidence from every pore. Defeating PSV Eindhoven, FC Bayern and the surprise team from Stuttgart in succession would have made their chests swell. However, reality had a different outcome in store, meaning that the starting position in the Bundesliga in the race for the minimum goal of qualifying for the Champions League has deteriorated. As fifth in the table, there is the threat of a super-GAU, which could also result in a change of coach in the summer…

For now, however, the club is looking forward to the quarter-finals of the Champions League. For the first time since 2020/21, BVB has made it back into the top eight teams in Europe. For the first time since 2012/13 (final at Wembley), the semi-finals beckon. However, the fact that Borussia has found it extremely difficult in the past, particularly away from home in the knockout phase of the top flight, is a problem in this context. They have only won one of their last ten away matches (1-1-8).

BVB want and must avoid an open exchange of blows at all costs

However, the team’s performances on the international stage so far are encouraging. First, Terzic’s team beat Paris St. Germain, AC Milan and Newcastle in the group of death, before defeating the designated Dutch champions from Eindhoven in the round of 16 after a first and second leg. The defense deserves special mention, having kept a clean sheet in four of the eight matches and conceded no more than one goal in three of the remaining four. Keeper Gregor Kobel played a major part in this remarkable statistic, only having to fish the ball out of the net four times despite an xG rating of 8.9 against him.

In view of the fact that the under 2.5 would have gone through in seven of the eight CL matches involving BVB and that a maximum of two goals were scored in four of Borussia’s last five BL matches, a prediction of a maximum of two goals after 90 minutes also seems obvious in the all-important quarter-final first leg between Atletico Madrid and Dortmund. The upcoming EURO 2024 in Germany will also see a number of evenly-matched duels in which neither team will want to take any major risks. For those who already want to prepare intensively for the final round in the summer, there is no way around the EURO bonus offers!

In conclusion, it should be noted that Dortmund have usually looked good in recent weeks and months when they let their opponents have the ball, concentrating on defending a little deeper themselves and creating pressure at times. If they maintain this level of concentration, a positive result in the Spanish capital should be realistic. Even a narrow defeat with at most a one-goal lead would leave everything wide open for the second leg the following Tuesday. The only annoying thing is that Donyell Malen, one of BVB’s most important attackers, is once again in danger of being ruled out due to muscular problems.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:

Atletico Madrid – Dortmund head-to-head comparison / H2H result

Atletico Madrid and Dortmund have met six times in total. BVB lead the head-to-head with three wins, one draw and two defeats. The last two head-to-head meetings date back to the 2018/19 CL group stage, when the home team came out on top. Borussia won 4:0 at home and the Red & Whites 2:0. However, the Bundesliga side in particular will largely have different players on the pitch on Wednesday, meaning the direct comparison will have no major influence on the upcoming knockout first leg.

Atletico Madrid – Dortmund betting tip

Many of the remaining clubs would have liked a quarter-final against Atletico Madrid or Borussia Dortmund. On paper, these are the two most inconsistent and probably least well-known teams in the last eight of Europe’s most important club competition. This makes it all the more exciting that these clubs will play out a semi-finalist among themselves on Wednesday evening and next Tuesday.

Although the bookmakers’ odds ahead of the first leg between Atletico Madrid and Dortmund suggest that the Spanish capital is the clear favorite to progress, we see a 50/50 match with minimal advantages in favor of Simeone’s side, who are virtually unbeatable, especially at home in the Champions League. Of 16 knockout matches in front of their own fans, the “Colchoneros” have not lost a single one under their Argentine head coach (10-6-0). There are many indications that this streak will continue on Wednesday

Even more interesting ahead of the Atletico Madrid v Dortmund game is the bet on a maximum of two goals during the match. Madrid are known for being very solid defensively, especially in the knockout phase. BVB, meanwhile, have conceded just five goals and kept four clean sheets in this CL season. In seven out of eight cases, the under 2.5 would have been the right choice. The 1.83 we found at Interwetten is worth a stake of five units