Do the Colchoneros take a big step towards the round of 16?
For the first time since the 2019/20 season, Atletico Madrid remained unbeaten in the first three matchdays of a Champions League group stage (one win, two draws). The Colchoneros are second in Group E behind Feyenoord Rotterdam. If Atletico Madrid win at home against Celtic Glasgow, it would be a big step towards the round of 16
The Scots have picked up 19 out of a possible 21 points away from home in the 2023/24 season. In the Champions League, however, the “Bhoys” have not won again in six away games (one draw, five defeats). In Spain, they have even lost all of their last six Champions League away games, conceding a total of 22 goals, which is why there is almost no alternative to predicting a home win for Atletico Madrid against Celtic Glasgow.
Two weeks ago, however, the Spaniards struggled in the first leg at Celtic Park. Although Atletico managed to equalize twice, the result was still only a 2-2 draw. It was Glasgow’s first point in their third group game and a painful loss for the Rojiblancos, who lost the lead in the group as a result.
Diego Simeone’s side rarely let anything slip in their own stadium. Nevertheless, the odds for betting tip 1 are too low to create value. A small handicap bet (-1) would be conceivable, but we prefer the bet on under 3.5 goals. In any case, the Madrilenians rarely score too many goals at home anyway
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Atletico de Madrid are practically an integral part of La Liga’s top four. The Colchoneros qualified for the UEFA Champions League for the eleventh time in a row, even reaching the final in 2014 and 2016, where they missed out on the title against city rivals Real Madrid.
After four knockout stages in a row, last season was the first time that the team finished in the preliminary round of the top flight. All the more reason for everyone involved to be delighted with the good start. For the first time since 2019/20, a defeat was avoided on the first three match days of the group stage (one win, two draws)
Won all five home games in La Liga in 2023/24
The five points from a possible nine are only enough for second place in Group E. But if Atletico Madrid win at home against Celtic Glasgow, it would be a big step towards the round of 16 for Diego Simeone’s side.
Atletico’s unbeaten record in seven competitive matches against the Bhoys (four wins, three draws) is not the only factor in their favor. The Madrilenians’ home strength is also an absolute asset, as they even recorded a home win against arch-rivals Real Madrid in the 2023/24 season (3:1).
Only lost three CL home games at the Metropolitano
Atletico Madrid have won all five of their home games in La Liga this season, scoring 13 goals to 6. The only other teams with five home wins (Barcelona and Girona) have needed six home games to do so.
Internationally, the Colchoneros have not lost any of their last six Champions League home games (two wins, four draws). Since moving to the Estadio Metropolitano, they have lost just three of their 23 Champions League home games (eleven wins, nine draws). The Rojiblancos are therefore well prepared for this match.
Predicted Atletico Madrid line-up:
Celtic Glasgow – Statistics & current form
Celtic Glasgow, unlike Atletico Madrid, have won the Champions League before, triumphing in the competition in 1967 when it was still officially known as the European Champions Cup.
However, the recent past in the top flight has not been too successful for the 53-time Scottish champions. The ‘Bhoys’ are currently without another Champions League win in 13 competitive matches (three draws, ten defeats)
Only one point out of a possible nine in Group E
At national level, the Hoops have 32 points out of a possible 36, giving them a twelve-point lead over city rivals Glasgow Rangers. Internationally, however, the Celts are once again on the brink of an early exit.
After two defeats at the start of the group stage, they did at least pick up their first point in the first leg against the Colchoneros two weeks ago (2:2). Nevertheless, the odds are now clearly against Atletico Madrid against Celtic Glasgow, who have lost all of their last six matches in the competition in Spain, conceding 22 goals
Only one clean sheet in the last 34 Champions League games
It’s not just in Spain that Celtic Glasgow have been weak away from home and prone to conceding goals, but also in the competition in general. The “Bhoys” have not won in six Champions League away games (one draw, five defeats).
What’s more, the Hoops have kept a clean sheet in just one of their last 34 Champions League games, while not much has worked offensively in the 2023/24 season. Of all 32 participants in the competition, no team has taken fewer shots in the first three matchdays (25) and has an even lower expected goals value (2.27) than the Celts.
Predicted line-up of Celtic Glasgow:
Atletico Madrid – Celtic Glasgow head-to-head / H2H result
Head to head: 4 – 3 – 0
The two teams have already met seven times in a competitive international match and Atletico Madrid have never suffered a defeat against Celtic Glasgow. After three wins in a row, the first leg two weeks ago ended in a draw for the first time (2:2).
Atletico Madrid – Celtic Glasgow betting tip
In the run-up to the second leg between Atletico Madrid and Celtic Glasgow, the betting odds are clearly in favor of the Colchoneros, who not only won all five home games in La Liga in the 2023/24 season, even beating city rivals Real Madrid, but are also unbeaten in six Champions League home games internationally (two wins, four draws). This contrasts with a very poor away record for the Bhoys, who have lost all of their last six Champions League matches in Spain, conceding 22 goals in the process.
However, another draw is not categorically out of the question, which is why we ultimately prefer the prediction of a maximum of three goals in the second leg between Atletico Madrid and Celtic Glasgow, which covers most eventualities.
