Will Barca also destroy Atletí’s last title dream?

The first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final between FC Barcelona and Atletico Madrid left nothing to be desired for neutral football fans. The Spanish giants played out a breathtaking 4-4 draw in the 1992 Olympic Stadium. The decision as to which team will advance to the final and meet Real Madrid there must therefore be made on Wednesday evening at the Metropolitano. Despite the home advantage for the mattress makers from the capital, the tip for the Catalans to advance is lower before the second leg between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona.

The role of favorites for Borussia Dortmund’s opponent in the Champions League quarterfinals can be seen primarily in the current form. While Flick’s team has been in outstanding form for weeks and is plowing from one success to the next in La Liga, the hosts’ performance curve has been trending downward of late. Nevertheless, other factors must of course be taken into account for a suitable Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona prediction.
For example, the Catalans are still dancing at all three weddings and are already playing their third competitive game after the international break. For the “Rojiblancos”, on the other hand, the Spanish King’s Cup is probably the only realistic opportunity to end the 24/25 season with a title. The anticipation for an explosive, lively, and high-class duel is huge.

Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form

It seems that Atletico Madrid’s dramatic elimination from the Champions League by city rivals Real Madrid continues to have an impact. In both league games following the bitter defeat on penalties, Diego Simeone’s team remained winless. First there was a 4-2 home defeat against FC Barcelona and then, at the weekend, a disappointing 1-1 draw at Espanyol Barcelona. With the gap to the top of the La Liga table now six points again, the train to the Spanish championship has probably left the station.

Atletico Madrid have recently slowed down significantly

Although their form can be described as below average with only two wins in their last eight La Liga games, the capital city team are capable of winning against any opponent in the world in 90 minutes. After the 4-4 first leg in Barcelona, they ultimately need a home win on Wednesday evening to reach the cup final after normal time.

The only problem is that the red-and-whites have always lost in their last three Copa del Rey semi-finals and have not won a single game out of a total of six (home and away). However, if you still want to place a bet on the somewhat surprising victory of the home team on the three-way market, you can get odds of 2.85 at Oddset between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona.

The only thing I see as particularly problematic at the moment is the Atletí defense, which doesn’t always look solid and which conceded almost exactly two goals on average in March. Against Barcelona, it even conceded four goals in the league and in the cup first leg. Furthermore, the offensive line-up with Julian Alvarez, Antoine Griezmann and Co. has only scored more than one goal in four of the last ten competitive matches. One goal could well be too few against the Catalans’ attacking power on Wednesday evening…

Predicted line-up:
Oblak – Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Mandava – Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Lino – Griezmann, Alvarez

Barcelona – statistics & recent form

FC Barcelona have had a fantastic 2025 football year so far. Considering they have not lost in 20 competitive games, 17 of which they have won (three draws), there is no shortage of superlatives. The Catalans have won eleven of their last twelve matches across all competitions. The only exception was the 4-4 draw in the semi-final first leg, in which Flick’s team also led 4-2 shortly before the end but then had to contend with a brief lapse in concentration.

Barca are leading the way in La Liga, have a feasible opponent in Borussia Dortmund in the CL quarter-finals and are aiming to reach the Copa final during the week. At the moment, Betano is offering odds of 1.82 on Yamal, Lewandowski, Raphinha and Co. making it through to the next round in the match between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona.

Can Barcelona ignore the tight program?

The reason why I see the Blaugrana in front on Wednesday evening in the capital is obvious. In European football, there is currently no other offensive that performs as sensationally, playfully and efficiently as FC Barcelona. In six of the last seven competitive matches, at least three of their own goals were scored. In no fewer than 11 of the 20 matches mentioned in the calendar year 2025, the Flick team even scored four or more goals. Amazing!

In view of these almost surreal attacking statistics, a prediction for over-goals between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona must once again find space in the top tip table. For at least four goals in regular time, you can get 2.54 as the highest odds at Merkur Bets. Looking back at their last six competitive matches, a corresponding bet on Over 3.5 would have been successful in five cases.

The fact that the La Liga leaders will be on the pitch for the third time in six days due to the postponed game against Osasuna does not change the fact that they are extremely keen to score goals and display a remarkable degree of self-confidence. Nevertheless, the immense pressure immediately after the international break certainly provides a compelling argument for betting on goals from both teams once again.

Expected line-up:
Szczesny – Balde, Martinez, Cubarsi, Kounde – Pedri, Gavi – Raphinha, Torres, Yamal – Lewandowski

Atletico Madrid – Barcelona Head to head / H2H record

This will be the La Liga leaders’ fourth face-off against opposition in this campaign. Atletico Madrid won the first meeting at the Barcelona Olympic Stadium three days before Christmas Eve with 2-1. In the following two games, however, four and two goals respectively were not enough to beat Flick’s team. The Copa semi-final first leg ended in a curious 4-4 draw, as already mentioned. The Catalans even won the La Liga clash 4-2. Barca have now won three times in a row at the Metropolitano. On Wednesday evening, the fourth away win in a row beckons.

Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona tip

Among other things, the game between Atletico Madrid and FC Barcelona, which is about advancing to the final of the Copa del Rey, will also be examined in more detail. After the 4-4 in the first leg, everything is still to play for in the second leg in the Spanish capital. In my opinion, however, there is more to be said for the Catalans getting through.

Barca is in great form, having won 11 of their last 12 competitive games and scoring four or more times in 11 of 20 competitive games in the calendar year 2025 alone. Despite the home advantage, I expect that Simeone’s team, which has been weakening of late, will once again reach its limits against this attacking power. Therefore, I tend to bet on the “Blaugrana” to advance to the final between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona. I play the 1.82 at Betano with six units.