Will Bilbao make it to the final again?
The second finalist in the Spanish Super Cup is being sought: Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao will duel in the second semi-final of the Supercopa de España in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Thursday. Kick-off is at 8 p.m. German time.
This will see reigning champions Atletico face reigning Super Cup holders and runners-up Athletic Bilbao. The Basques caused a surprise last season, first eliminating Real Madrid in the Supercopa semi-finals and then beating FC Barcelona in the final after extra time.
This alone suggests that we should be looking at an exciting second semi-final. Nevertheless, Atletico Madrid are unsurprisingly favourites, as the Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao odds make clear. But that doesn’t necessarily mean anything, as Bilbao proved a year ago.
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Atletico Madrid are not getting any consistency in their performances this season: After four league defeats in a row – which was a negative record under coach Simeone – Atletico finally managed to celebrate a victory again after the short Christmas break against city and table neighbours Rayo Vallecano (2-0). In the Copa del Rey, this was followed by an effortless 5-0 win against third division side Rayo Majadahonda.
But just a few days later, they lost another point in La Liga. At Villarreal, Atletico did not manage more than a 2-2 draw – and did not exactly cover themselves with glory for long stretches of the game. Atletico’s form and consistency are not up to scratch at the moment, which makes betting on the reigning champions a little tricky before Atletico Madrid vs.
Favourites Atletico Madrid with shaky defence
Betting on the Rojiblancos to win the three-way can of course be interesting at the same time. Currently, Unibet offers betting odds of 2.00 on Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao to win after 90 minutes – the top odds among the best betting providers.
Atletico should undoubtedly be the better football team on Thursday night, the only question is whether the Simeone team will show the difference in quality on the pitch? It is precisely the vulnerability of the defence that is causing the Rojiblancos problems and is responsible for the many points lost this season. They have conceded goals in 15 of their 20 La Liga games this season.
For those who believe Atletico will progress on balance, but are unsure whether that will happen within the 90 minutes, one or two bookmakers can also bet on them to progress.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak – Llorente, Gimenez, Hermoso, Lodi – Carrasco, Koke, De Paul, Lemar – Suarez, Correa
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
LaLiga
01/09 2022 – Villarreal FC 2 – 2 Atletico Madrid
Copa del Rey
01/06 2022 – Rayo Majadahonda 0 – 5 Atletico Madrid
LaLiga
01/02 2022 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 0 Rayo Vallecano
12/22 2021 – Granada 2 – 1 Atletico Madrid
12/18 2021 – Sevilla 2 – 1 Atletico Madrid
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
Athletic Bilbao are not really consistent this season either. This can be seen just by looking at the La Liga table, where the Basques are only ninth. But of course this doesn’t really matter for the semi-final of the Supercup, in a knockout match including extra time and penalty shootout anything is possible.
And it is precisely these games that Athletic Bilbao particularly enjoy. Bilbao is a typical cup team. Two seasons in a row, in 2019/20 and 2020/21, the Athletic Club from Bilbao reached the final of the Copa del Rey – but lost both finals. However, they beat Real Madrid (2:1) and Barcelona (3:2 n.V.) in the final four of last year’s Super Cup to win the title.
Bilbao as cup team – but with problems scoring goals
For this reason, we find betting on the Basques in Atletico Madrid against Athletic Bilbao anything but far-fetched. If you even believe in a win for coach Marcelino’s team after 90 minutes, you’ll get a whopping 4.20 odds on average for Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao on this prediction.
At the same time, however, one should also bear in mind that Bilbao has enormous problems with scoring goals. Marcelino’s men have only scored 20 goals in 21 games – the lowest figure of all teams in La Liga’s top 10. Significantly, their last league game against relegation candidates Alaves ended 0-0, Bilbao’s fifth draw of the season.
Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Simon – de Marcos, Alvarez, Martinez, Balenziaga – Berenguer, D. Garcia, Vencedor, Muniain – R. Garcia, Williams
Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:
LaLiga
01/09 2022 – Deportivo Alaves 0 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
Copa del Rey
01/06 2022 – Atletico Mancha Real 0 – 2 Athletic Bilbao
LaLiga
01/03 2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 1 – 3 Athletic Bilbao
12/22 2021 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 2 Real Madrid
12/19 2021 – Athletic Bilbao 3 – 2 Real Betis
Atletico Madrid – Athletic Bilbao Direct comparison / H2H record
0:0 was also the result of these two teams in their La Liga clash at the Wanda Metropolitano in Madrid. Bilbao were naturally much happier with that draw in September than champions Atletico, who have won six of their last ten encounters.
But it is precisely another draw after 90 minutes that does not really seem unlikely at present, given Atletico’s fickle form.
Atletico Madrid – Athletic Bilbao Tip
Will the favourite prevail? Last year this was not the case twice – both times Athletic Bilbao upset the favourites Barça and Real and surprisingly won the Supercopa. A semi-final exit would be the next blow for Atletico Madrid in a very turbulent season that has already seen a number of defeats and losses of points.
Therefore, a draw after 90 minutes and even a progress of the Basques would not really surprise us. We believe in a very contested affair, the outcome in the three-way is difficult for us to predict, which is why we prefer to make the following prediction on Atletico Madrid vs Bilbao: We go into the dressing room with a draw at half-time.
