Tomorrow evening, the Rose Bowl in Pasadena will host a decisive match in the third round of the group stage of the 2025 Club World Cup: Atlético Madrid against Botafogo. Both teams are looking for a positive result to advance to the round of 16 and finish the group stage on a high note. Let’s analyze the data, statistics, and betting markets to find the best value bets.
After losing on the first day of the group stage, Atlético Madrid bounced back on Thursday night with a win over Seattle Sounders. A brace from the excellent Pablo Barrios and a tap-in from Axel Witsel gave the Colchoneros three crucial points at Lumen Field, where the Sounders suffered their third consecutive home defeat.
This victory has reopened Group B, although Botafogo now seem to be on the verge of qualifying for the round of 16. The Brazilians pulled off what has been the most sensational upset of the tournament so far, beating European champions Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the early hours of Friday morning. The prestigious Rose Bowl, the scene of the victory over PSG, will also host the decisive match between Atlético Madrid and Botafogo, from which at least one of the two will qualify.
What can we expect on Monday night in Pasadena? Let’s analyze the numbers, statistics, and form to predict the outcome of the match and offer the most reliable betting tips for this decisive fixture.
Atlético Madrid – Botafogo, Monday, June 23, at 9:00 p.m.
Tips for Atlético Madrid – Botafogo
Draw – odds of 3.75 on bet365, 3.75 on Sisal, 3.55 on Goldbet
Under 2.5 goals – odds of 1.90 on bet365, 1.85 on Sisal, 1.85 on Goldbet
Igor Jesus to score first – odds 9.00 on bet365, 7.50 on Sisal, not available on Goldbet
Odds courtesy of bet365, Sisal and GoldBet. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
A potential stalemate?
There’s no doubt about it: this is one of the most difficult matches to predict. Both Diego Simeone and Renato Paiva adopt a cautious tactical approach, based on organization, teamwork, and defensive solidity. It will be interesting to see which of the two coaches breaks the deadlock first, although Paiva is likely to prefer to leave the initiative to Atlético.
Botafogo had only 38% possession in their 3-1 win over Seattle Sounders last weekend and beat Paris Saint-Germain despite conceding 75% of possession. Against the French champions, the Brazilians completed just 234 passes, compared to 682 for the Parisians, but they managed to make the most of the chances they had.
Atlético, on the other hand, won deservedly in Washington, controlling the game and shooting 15 times at the goal defended by an unfortunate Stefan Frei. However, Simeone’s team showed clear limitations in their opening defeat, overwhelmed by the speed and inventiveness of PSG’s attack. If Botafogo can exploit those same weaknesses, we could see a very close game at the Rose Bowl on Monday.
The moment seems to be smiling on the Brazilians. In addition to the six points they have earned so far, Botafogo qualified for the Copa Libertadores round of 16 just two weeks before flying to the United States and is coming off a triumphant season at the national and continental levels. Atlético, on the other hand, ended their season with some regrets: third place in the league, out of the Copa del Rey and the Champions League in the space of three weeks. Despite this, it is difficult to imagine the Spaniards giving up easily in such an important match for their future in the tournament.
Tip: Draw – 3.75 at bet365, 3.75 at Sisal, 3.55 at Goldbet
Will we be hungry for goals?
Looking at Botafogo’s shooting statistics, it is clear how important accuracy is in the final third of the field. Although Sounders and PSG have had many more shots, the Rio de Janeiro side have been more effective. Two-thirds of Botafogo’s shots in this Club World Cup have been on target, a statistic made even more impressive by their 100% accuracy against PSG.
The cautious approach adopted so far has proved effective, but it certainly does not encourage a flurry of chances. It is no surprise that the Fogão won both games by narrow margins, showing great care not to expose themselves in the opposition’s half.
Even Atlético Madrid, despite scoring three goals against the Sounders on Thursday, are not synonymous with unbridled attacking football. The Colchoneros finished La Liga 2024/25 with an average of less than 1.8 goals per game, 34 fewer than champions Barcelona. And given their false start in California, it is difficult to expect a goal-scoring explosion against Botafogo.
In short, although the match promises intensity and tension, it is unlikely to turn into a goal fest.
Tip: Under 2.5 goals – odds 1.90 at bet365, 1.85 at Sisal, 1.85 at Goldbet
Igor Jesus continues his scoring streak
After scoring three goals in his first ten appearances in Serie A, it was no surprise to see him score in both of Botafogo’s first two games in the Club World Cup. In Seattle, Igor Jesus scored with a precise header, while against PSG he coolly beat Gianluigi Donnarumma to give his side the lead at the Rose Bowl.
The 24-year-old, who arrived in Rio last July after a spell with Shabab Al Ahli in the United Arab Emirates, is no stranger to scoring decisive goals. He scored a last-gasp equalizer against São Paulo in mid-April and repeated the feat against Estudiantes and Universidad de Chile to help Botafogo continue their Copa Libertadores title defense. Fast, powerful, and direct, the Fogão striker could cause serious problems for Atlético Madrid’s defense, which has been shaky so far.
All three of Botafogo’s goals in this edition of the Club World Cup have come in the first half, which suggests that they will try to feed their most in-form player early on. An opening goal from him could seriously compromise Atlético’s hopes of qualifying.
With odds of 9.00 on bet365 and 7.50 on Sisal for the first goalscorer, betting on Igor Jesus as the star of the show from the kick-off could prove to be a very interesting choice.
Tip: Igor Jesus to be the first goalscorer – odds of 9.00 on bet365, 7.50 on Sisal, not available on Goldbet
Explanation of the bet: this bet wins if Igor Jesus scores the first goal of the match.
Odds Atlético Madrid – Botafogo
Atlético Madrid to win – odds of 1.73 on bet365, 1.70 on Sisal, 1.70 on Goldbet
Draw – odds 3.75 on bet365, 3.75 on Sisal, 3.55 on Goldbet
Botafogo to win – odds 5.00 on bet365, 5.00 on Sisal, 4.95 on Goldbet
Odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
