The Basques vs the King

When it comes to Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid, the predictions, the game and the supporters are a talking point. Not only do two progenitors of the Spanish top flight meet, but also two extremely successful teams. That has never changed over the years and so the latest version of this duel will also provide explosiveness.

Both rivals share the same misery. A season that was meagre by their standards. Madrid had to watch their hated rivals from Catalonia snatch the league crown. It hurt that Real “only” had to be content with the Copa del Rey.

The Basque country could only dream of such heights. Athletic, in eighth place overall, even had to do without the European Cup. That will all change now. The role of the favourites, however, remains where it always lies in this duel. The betting odds for Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid are clearly on an away win.

In the Basque Country, very little was changed over the summer and, above all, nothing was given or taken in terms of money. Additions and departures often came about through loans and everything else was done on a free transfer basis.

Madrid (how could it be otherwise) has a deficit of 128 million. The generational change already announced by coach Ancelotti is being pushed ahead. How quickly the changeover will work remains to be seen. In the here and now, however, tip 2 is still the favourite for Athletic Bilbao against Real Madrid.

Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form

The Basque Country is proud of its Athletic Club. At least the red and white part. But even in San Sebastian, one must probably look with appreciation at the iron rule of the all-Basque squad. However, this makes many a transfer summer difficult.

A quiet summer

Although the rule for inclusion in the squad has already been extended to the grandparents’ generation, it is still amazing how competitive the men from Bilbao present themselves year after year. This summer, too, they managed their budget calmly and prudently.

The squad has been strengthened or improved in certain areas without any purchases or expenditures. With Inigo Martinez (Barcelona) and Mikel Balenziaga (Deportivo La Coruna), the Basques lost two familiar faces. They were replaced by Inigo Ruiz de Galaretta (Mallorca), Nico Serrano (Mirandes) and the returning Asier Villalibre (Alaves). So now it should be on to another successful La Liga participation.

In Ernesto we trust

The red and white team is led by an old acquaintance. Ernesto Valverde is a true Basque expert on the sidelines. In his more than 20-year coaching career, he has already worked for Bilbao several times, in addition to Valencia, Villareal, Espanyol and FC Barcelona. In addition to his work as an assistant, he has also coached Athletic B (2002/03) and the professional team (2003-2005/2013-2017/2022-present).

His CV includes Greek and Spanish championships, cup victories and doubles. Much more admirable, however, is the fact that he reached the UEFA Cup final in 2007 with Espanyol Barcelona and won the Supercopa with Bilbao. So he can conjure up great things from few resources. That is what Bilbao need year after year. Whether that will be enough against Real remains to be seen. In any case, Athletic Bilbao is considered the underdog against Real Madrid in the odds.

The Preparation

The Basques have faced some interesting opponents in their preparation and have done some good things. They played six games in which they won one, drew three and lost two. The opponents were Guadalajara (0:2) and Necaxa (2:0) from Mexico, Celtic (2:3) and ManUnited (1:1) from the island, and Santander (0:0) and Eibar (1:1) from home. With the majority of the squad unchanged, it was probably all about the finer points and the way the game was played. In that respect, results are probably only of secondary interest. Now, however, it counts for the first time and the task is as difficult as can be.

Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:

Athletic Bilbao (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

It’s a turnaround in instalments at the Santiago Bernabeu. After the departures of Christiano Ronaldo and Zinedine Zidane, the Madridistas had to say goodbye to two more club greats this summer.

Tree change

Karim Benzema’s move to Ittihad virtually kicked off the transfer round to the Middle East. But the Merengues also lost one of their faces with the departure of Marco Asensio (also on a free transfer) to Paris. The departure of Eden Hazard was virtually silent.

But as is so often the case in the biggest Hollywood production of modern football, new leading actors were quickly found. Jude Bellingham from BVB (103 million) and Arda Güler from Fenerbahce (20 million) are supposed to form the future of the Blancos. Both are young, dynamic and could still give the fans a lot of fun. But not only for them.

The grey eminence

A rock in the wall is and remains the coach of the star ensemble. With Carlo Ancelotti, one of the greatest coaching personalities of the modern era is on the sidelines. He has already coached everything of distinction. More importantly, however, those who have been coached by him have been successful.

Four Champions League trophies, multiple club world champions, Premier League, Serie A, La Liga and German Bundesliga. This is not a Panini booklet but an excerpt from his CV as a coach. No wonder no one in Madrid has seriously considered a change after last season.

The preparation

However, if the preparation is any indicator of the season ahead, that could well change. Incorporated into what has become a standard summer world tour, they dueled with four greats of European football. Victories against AC Milan (3:2) and Manchester United (2:0) were followed by a defeat against Juventus (1:3) and a disgraceful 0:3 against Barca.

This defeat in particular should have caused quite a stir at the Bernabeu. They cannot and will not afford another season behind their chronically cash-strapped arch-enemy. The rebuilding process needs time and Ancelotti has repeatedly called for it. In Madrid, however, this time is often not available.

Predicted line-up of Real Madrid:

Real Madrid (Expected line-up) 4-1-2-1-2

Athletic Bilbao – Real Madrid Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Every year, the Basques and the white ballet cross blades. There is always far more at stake than just sporting matters. In the last ten games, however, this duel has gone rather one-sidedly to the capital. Athletic have won two, Real seven. In the last encounter last year, the rivals drew 1-1 for once.

That is a real rarity in the recent past. Just like a goalless game. Fans of goal bets like those at bet-at-home will get their money’s worth. Those who prefer regular bets should bear in mind that the odds on Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid clearly lean towards an away win.

Athletic Bilbao – Real Madrid tip

If the league were purely based on market values, there would be no discussion. Real clearly dominate and have more than four times the value compared to the hosts. However, the Blancos had to grudgingly accept that money does not always score goals in the league.

Bilbao also had to let Osasuna, a supposedly “smaller” club, pass them by. In both clubs, however, the focus was on calm and consistency. This may also be the reason why the forecasts for Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid assume a victory for the capital. The quality is enormous and with time it will come on the pitch.

The preparations of the opponents left something to be desired at times. A test is just a test. But no one likes to concede a defeat like the one Real suffered against Barca. But Bilbao hardly shone either, with only one win in six test matches.

Both will hardly be brimming with self-confidence. But since Real in particular has the global “Mia san Mia” down pat, no one in the white part of the capital expects anything other than a win. The bookmakers see it the same way and we are also betting on Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid as 2.