Will the Catalans cause excitement in the last 16?
While Athletic Bilbao have made a mediocre return to La Liga after the World Cup break with just two points from a possible nine in their first three league games, Espanyol Barcelona have now gone six consecutive competitive games without defeat (four wins, two draws). Nevertheless, according to the bookmakers, betting on a home win for the Basques is by far the more likely choice for Athletic Bilbao against Espanyol Barcelona.
The Leones’ favouritism can be explained by the Basques’ home strength. Bilbao have only lost two of their nine league games at home and have conceded just four goals in those nine games.
This also favours the prediction of a not too high-scoring cup tie between Athletic Bilbao and Espanyol Barcelona, especially as the visitors from Catalonia only have 21 goals on record from 17 league games.
Two betting options stand out accordingly. In addition to betting that the Leones will advance to the Copa del Rey quarter-finals with a home win, betting on a maximum of two goals in regulation time makes a lot of sense. We consider the ratio between risk, probability of occurrence and winning possibility to be better for the under-bet, which is why we bet on less than 2.5 goals. Moreover, more goals have only been scored in two of the last eleven competitive matches between the two clubs.
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
Athletic Bilbao belong to a very elite circle in Spain. The Leones are not only a founding member of the Primera División, they are also the only team in Spain’s top division, along with Real Madrid and FC Barcelona, not to have been relegated once since 1928.
The Basques have won eight national championships and a staggering 24 Copa del Rey titles, but have not won the Spanish Cup since 1984 and have just lost two consecutive finals in 2020 and 2021.
Only one win in last four competitive matches
The longing of the Zuri-gorriak (the Red and Whites) to finally secure the Copa del Rey once again is correspondingly great. In view of the fact that Athletic Bilbao are not represented in any international competition and are currently in a sobering eighth place in La Liga, Ernesto Valverde’s team can also concentrate fully on the cup.
In the last round, the Leones celebrated a convincing 6:1 away win at third division side Eldense. Significantly, however, this was the Basques’ only win in their last four competitive matches. In La Liga, the duels with Real Betis, Osasuna and arch-rivals Real Sociedad have yielded only two points out of a possible nine.
The second best home defence in La Liga
Despite this, the Zuri-gorriak go into the Copa del Rey round of 16 favoured. The betting odds on Athletic Bilbao against Espanyol Barcelona are clearly in favour of the Basques, who have the second-best home defence in La Liga behind Barcelona, conceding just four goals from nine games.
Moreover, they have already won five of their nine home games at San Mamés (two draws, two defeats), which means that everything is basically set for a place in the quarter-finals in front of a home crowd. The Leones have only lost one of their last six games against the Catalans (two wins, three draws).
Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Simón – Berchiche – Álvarez – Vivian – de Marcos – Vesga – García – N. Williams – Sancet – I. Williams – Guruzeta
Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:
La Liga
15/01/2023 – Real Sociedad 3 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
10/01/2023 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 0 Osasuna Pamplona
Copa del Rey
06/01/2023 – Eldense 1 – 6 Athletic Bilbao
La Liga
30/12/2022 – Real Betis 0 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
Copa del Rey
21/12/2022 – Sestao 0 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
Espanyol Barcelona – Statistics & current form
Reial Club Deportiu – short RCD – Espanyol de Barcelona exists since the year 1900. Although it has never been enough for the Spanish championship. However, the Blanquiazules have won the Copa del Rey four times.
Currently, the Catalans have been back in La Liga for two years, where they finished 14th in the final table last season. At the moment, however, the Periquitos are in a relegation battle. After 17 league games, Espanyol are 14th in the table, just one point clear of the first relegation spot.
Haven’t lost in six consecutive competitive games
At least recently, however, things have clearly been looking up for Blanquiazules, who, following a 1-0 home defeat to Villarreal at the beginning of November, have gone unbeaten in six consecutive competitive games (four wins, two draws).
The highlight of that run was undoubtedly the away game at Camp Nou against arch-rivals FC Barcelona. In the Derbi barceloní, the Periquitos secured an important point in a 1-1 draw, which gave them new self-confidence. Immediately afterwards, the Catalans won 3-1 after extra time against Celta Vigo in the Copa del Rey and picked up another four points out of a possible six in league play.
Won first three of 17 league games
However, the Blanquiazules’ offensive remains a bit of a weak spot. The Catalans have only scored 21 goals in 17 league games, which has meant that they have only won three of their 17 league games (eight draws, six defeats).
In combination with the strong home defence of the Leones, there is a lot to be said for betting on Athletic Bilbao against Espanyol Barcelona not to score too many goals in this cup match.
Predicted line-up of Espanyol Barcelona:
García – Oliván – Cabrera – Montes – Sánchez – Martínez – Souza – Puado – Expósito – Lazo – Braithwaite
Last matches played by Espanyol Barcelona:
La Liga
15/01/2023 – Getafe 1 – 2 Espanyol
08/01/2023 – Espanyol 2 – 2 Girona
Copa del Rey
04/01/2023 – Espanyol 3 – 1 Celta Vigo
La Liga
31/12/2022 – FC Barcelona 1 – 1 Espanyol
Copa del Rey
21/12/2022 – CD Atletico Paso 0 – 1 Espanyol
Athletic Bilbao – Espanyol Barcelona Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 80 – 39 – 67
There have been a total of 186 meetings between the two teams so far and with 80 wins the Basques lead the direct comparison. However, Athletic Bilbao lost their last home match at the San Mamés 1-0 to Espanyol Barcelona on matchday four of the current season.
Athletic Bilbao – Espanyol Barcelona Tip
When it comes to Athletic Bilbao against Espanyol Barcelona, the prediction does tend to go in the direction of the Leones, who have only conceded four goals in nine home La Liga games at their own stadium. However, it must also be taken into account that the visitors from Catalonia have not lost in six competitive matches and are in good form coming to the San Mamés, where RCD Barcelona also won their last away match to date 1-0 on Matchday 4 of the 2022/23 season.
More value than betting on a home win for the Basques is to bet on a maximum of two goals in this cup clash between two first division teams. After all, there have only been two more goals between the two teams in the past eleven meetings.
