Will Bilbao keep up with the European places?
After the international break, the Spanish LaLiga plays its 23rd matchday of the current season. It concludes on Monday evening in the Basque Country with the clash between Athletic Bilbao and Espanyol Barcelona. A duel between two teams that are currently in the midfield of the table. However, the home side in particular can regain their grip on the international places with a home win.
If the bookmakers have their way, this triumph is very likely, as betting odds around 1.60 are offered for a home win for the Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol Barcelona match. The Basques are a team that is generally considered to be very strong at home. The visitors are one of the three promoted teams and can draw a very satisfactory conclusion with 27 points and 13th place. However, Espanyol is a welcome guest away from home and accordingly the underdog role is absolutely justifiable.
However, it should be noted that Athletic Bilbao already have to play their Copa del Rey semi-final against Valencia on Thursday. The Marcelino eleven has hardly any time for regeneration and will therefore have to rotate a little. The match kicks off on Monday evening at 9 p.m.
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
Once again, the Basques underlined their sympathy for the Spanish King’s Cup. Athletic Bilbao have won the title 24 times, but the last time was in 1983/84. In the last two editions of the Spanish Cup, the dream was shattered in the final. In 2021/22, the Basques could now reach the final for the third time in a row, because the clash against Valencia (the semi-final is played in a return match) is a feasible task. Especially after the recent elimination of Barcelona and Real Madrid in the cup.
Four of the five defeats were at home
The home side were described at the start as traditionally strong at home, but this is an assessment that has not really been borne out so far this season. Athletic Bilbao have suffered five defeats so far this season, four of them at home.
Another finding is that Bilbao score far more goals in their home matches than in their away matches. At the San Mames, the average is 2.50 goals per game, in the away games a meagre 1.08 goals. Three of the last four home games ended with three or more goals, so a bet on the over 2.5 is definitely of interest. Especially since odds of over 2.00 are offered on Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol Barcelona.
Rotation is to be expected
Bilbao will be back in action at home on Thursday night (21:30) as they await the bats of Valencia. The third cup final in a row is within reach, but before that it is also important to maintain the good position in the league. The international starting positions are within reach for the Basques.
In terms of personnel, of course, the tight schedule has an impact and load management is absolutely necessary. Vencedor and Nico Williams will not be available to Marcelino on Monday due to injury. Bilbao, however, have a squad that hardly drops in width and accordingly such absences do not pose major problems.
Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Simon – Balenziaga, Martinez, Vivian, Lekue – Serrano, Zarraga, Garcia, Berenguer – I. Williams, Garcia
Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:
Copa del Rey
02/03 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 0 Real Madrid
LaLiga
01/23 2022 – Rayo Vallecano 0 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
Copa del Rey
01/20 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 3 – 2 Barcelona
Super Cup
01/16 2022 -Athletic Bilbao 0 – 2 Real Madrid
01/13 2022 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Athletic Bilbao
Espanyol Barcelona – Statistics & current form
For the promoted Barcelona side, the away game in the Basque Country is their first football match since 21 January. The break came at a time when things were not going according to plan for Espanyol. This gave head coach Moreno plenty of time to address the deficiencies, but also no opportunity to end the negative run of the last few weeks.
Life insurance is locked
The Catalans’ last win came in 2021, a fortunate 2-1 victory away at Valencia on 31 December thanks to a strong final phase. January was then absolutely disappointing. In the league, there were two defeats against Elche and Betis Sevilla as well as a draw against relegation candidates Cadiz, and in the cup they had to cope with the elimination in Mallorca.
Espanyol managed to score at least one goal in all four games, but the defence was the weak point. During the break, Vicente Moreno not only had to try to stabilise the defence, but also get creative for the offensive. Top striker Raul de Tomas was sent off in the final phase of the 1:4 against Betis Sevilla. He scored twelve goals and is Espanyol’s second best scorer with three goals. His absence is a serious weakening. Espanyol will also have to do without the strong midfielder Yangel Herrera.
Espanyol stand for high-scoring games
With de Tomas, Espanyol had an attacker who always provided danger. Loren Moron will now take his place, he too has proven his qualities several times in LaLiga.
If the trend of the last weeks continues, the end of the matchday on Monday will be very entertaining. If you only look at Espanyol Barcelona’s last eight league games, there has been an average of no less than 3.50 goals scored. In addition to over 2.5, you can also predict that Athletic Bilbao will score against Espanyol Barcelona.
Predicted line-up of Espanyol Barcelona:
Lopez – Pedrosa, Calero, Gomez, Gil – Morlanes, Darder – Puado, Melendo, Vidal – Moron
Last matches played by Espanyol Barcelona:
LaLiga
01/21 2022 – Espanyol 1 – 4 Real Betis
01/18 2022 – Cadiz 2 – 2 Espanyol
Copa del Rey
01/15 2022 – Mallorca 2 – 1 Espanyol
LaLiga
01/10 2022 – Espanyol 1 – 2 Elche
Copa del Rey
01/04 2022 – Ponferradina 1,1 – 1,3 Espanyol
Athletic Bilbao – Espanyol Barcelona Direct comparison / H2H balance
In three of the last four league encounters between Athletic Bilbao and Espanyol Barcelona, betting on a draw has been the right choice – with all three games ending 1-1, the only exception being the last match at San Mames Stadium. In the 2019/20 season, the Basques prevailed at home with a commanding 3-0 win. In general, Bilbao have a stellar home record against the Catalans, winning 54 of their 85 LaLiga home games (14 draws, 17 defeats).
Athletic Bilbao – Espanyol Barcelona tip
Thanks to their recent cup successes, the hosts are brimming with self-confidence and will be able to go into Monday’s match with a broad chest. The situation is completely different for the visitors, who have not been in action for more than two weeks and were previously winless three times in a row. Now de Tomas, their top scorer, is also missing. In view of this, Athletic Bilbao’s betting on Espanyol Barcelona is clearly in favour of the home side.
Only the upcoming Copa del Rey semi-final is a bit of a concern, as Marcelino will (have to) rotate. The bet on the home win is still justified, but even more interesting seems to be the forecast for Athletic Bilbao against Espanyol Barcelona at good betting odds on the over 2.5. Perhaps a little surprising due to de Tomas’ absence at Espanyol, but Espanyol’s defence is by no means solid. In addition, Bilbao score far more goals at home than away, so the 2.06 offered seems a bit too high.
