Home-strong Basques receive away-weak Rojiblancos

The winner of the 120th edition of the Spanish Copa del Rey will be decided on April 11. The two finalists will be determined this week, which could lead to a prestigious Basque derby. The traditional clubs from the Basque Country are favorites to reach the final after the first legs. The team from San Sebastian will be in action on Wednesday evening, before the latest betting providers favor a home win in the clash between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid on Thursday.

A successful bet on a home win for the Basques offers the lowest odds at 2.40. This assessment may come as a surprise to the neutral soccer observer at first glance, as the Rojiblancos of long-term coach Diego Simeone enjoy a much higher international reputation. However, Bilbao are very strong at home in San Mamés, while the capital’s team have repeatedly suffered setbacks away from home. With this in mind, we also see a prediction for Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid in favor of the hosts as a good possibility. Interesting odds are also offered for the bet type Draw No Bet.

The Copa del Rey has been played in the current format for five years now. This involves a first and second leg in the semi-finals, albeit without an away goals rule. If the Madrilenians win by one goal, extra time will be played. The match kicks off on Thursday evening at 9:30 p.m.

Athletic Bilbao – statistics & current form

Ernesto Valverde was head coach of the tradition-conscious Basques from 2003 to 2005 and from 2013 to 2017, averaging 1.64 points per game in 213 competitive games during his second spell in charge. After a manageable stint at the great FC Barcelona and a two-year break, he returned to his old stomping ground and is ensuring that the founding member of the Spanish LaLiga will almost certainly return to Europe.

The San Mamés is a fortress

After 26 league games, the Basques have an impressive 49 points on their tally, a figure only surpassed in the 21st century in the 2013/14 season (50 points). In fifth place in the table, the Basques are just three points behind cup opponents Atletico Madrid and can even dream of the UEFA Champions League. The decisive factor here is their impressive record at home. Valverde’s team are even in third place in the home table. They have won no fewer than ten of their 13 home games, compared to two draws (Getafe and Valencia) and a defeat on the first matchday against Real Madrid (0:2).

This means the Basques are now unbeaten in twelve league home games and have already knocked Valverde’s former team Barcelona out of the current cup competition. Since October 29, every Bilbao home game has ended in victory for the hosts. Given these figures, it should be understandable why the bookmakers are offering the lowest odds on Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid when betting on the home side.

Predicted Athletic Bilbao line-up:
Agirrezabala – Berchiche, Paredes, Alvarez, Lekue – Ruiz de Galarreta, Prados – Berenguer, Sancet, N. Williams – I. Williams

Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form

Speaking of home strength: this is what characterizes the Rojiblancos from Madrid this season. With 37 out of a possible 39 points, Simeone’s side are the best home team in the league. Including the cup (including a win in the derby against Real Madrid) and the three CL matches to date, the capital side have played 19 home games. The first leg of the cup semi-final was the only defeat the Madrilenians have suffered at the Civitas Metropolitano

Catastrophic away record for a top team

Thanks to their outstanding home record, the team is in contention for the CL starting places. However, the Madrilenians will not be able to do more than that, as Simeone’s side are a welcome guest on the road. Only four of their 13 away games to date have ended in victory. A look at their most recent away appearances makes their weakness on the road all the more apparent, as only Granada have been victorious since the beginning of November. On the other hand, there have been five defeats and two draws. Just last weekend, Simeone’s side had to settle for a disappointing 2-2 draw at bottom club UD Almeria

In view of this disastrous away record (in combination with the home strength of the Basques), we find the odds on Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid on Thursday evening clearly too low. Griezmann, Morata & Co certainly have more individual quality, but outside their own stadium, Simeone’s team don’t seem to be able to bring it to the pitch. Although the visitors can draw virtually on a full complement of players, they are unlikely to reach the final

Predicted line-up for Atletico Madrid:
Oblak – Witsel, Savic, Mandava – Lino, Koke, de Paul, Barrios, Molina – Depay, Morata

Athletic Bilbao – Atletico Madrid head-to-head / H2H record

The direct comparison underlines our main betting tip across the board. In the last five league games and in the semi-final first leg between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid, the prediction that neither team would score was the correct one. In 2022/23, Simeone’s side won both league games 1-0, while the Basques have won both of their games so far this season. They won 2-0 in the league in mid-December, and Valverde’s side narrowly won the first leg three weeks ago 1-0 thanks to a penalty from Alex Berenguer.

Athletic Bilbao – Atletico Madrid betting tip

Home strength meets away weakness and yet the bookmakers do not see the prediction for a home win in the duel between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid on Thursday evening as a clear favorite. With these statistics, a 2.40 has its appeal. However, since any draw will be enough for the Basques to reach the final, Valverde’s team will not (want to) take many risks as the game progresses. In this respect, we do not recommend a win on the three-way market in our top tips, but “only” a bet on the draw-no-bet

Our main tip is supported in particular when looking at the direct comparison in recent years. Five units are used in the semi-final second leg between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid for the prediction “Both teams to score? No”. Simeone’s team are aware of the Basques’ home strength and will therefore start relatively cautiously. Conceding a goal would probably put an early end to their dreams of reaching the final, as Bilbao are unlikely to let such an advantage slip from their grasp in their current form. Our third top tip, the Under 2.5, is also derived from this