Final match character in Lombardy
In some UEFA Champions League groups, all decisions have already been made before matchday six. The situation is different in Group F, however. On Wednesday evening, there will even be a direct final for second place. In this match, Atalanta Bergamo and Villarreal will face each other. According to the odds, many things point to the Italians advancing to the next round.
If the prediction of a home win in the clash between Atalanta Bergamo and Villarreal pays off, Gasperini’s team would definitely overtake the Spaniards, who currently have one point more on their account. Conversely, a draw would be enough for the reigning Europa League champions to successfully defend their second-place position.
The exciting first leg, which ended in a 2-2 draw, underlined the fact that things could well heat up at the Gewiss Stadium on Wednesday evening. In general, the Bergamasques stand for a lot of spectacle in the top division. In five meetings with Spanish teams in the Champions League, they have already scored 21 goals! This might also be an indication that we will see another goal or two on Wednesday evening.
Atalanta Bergamo – Statistics & current form
Atalanta Bergamo are once again one of the hottest teams in Italy at the moment. Since the narrow 2:3 defeat against Milan on 03 October, coach Gian Piero Gasperini’s team has now not lost. They have won seven and drawn two of their last nine Serie A matches. Most recently, they have won five league matches in a row, scoring an impressive total of 15 goals. So the Nerazzurri are by no means lacking in self-confidence at the moment.
In addition to their strong form, however, there are various other reasons for betting on the Italians between Atalanta Bergamo and Villarreal. For example, “La Dea” has emerged as a crunch time specialist in recent seasons.
When it matters, Atalanta are there in the CL
While Atalanta picked up a total of just eight points (0.89 points per game) in nine games on Matchdays 1-3 in their three most recent CL appearances, they have already picked up 13 points (2.00 average) in 8 attempts on Matchdays 4-6. So it seems as if the Lombards can rely on their own nerves of steel in the important and decisive moments and, if necessary, go one or two steps further. This was also evident in the current season, when they drew 2-2 at home against United on matchday four and deservedly won 2-0 in Bern on matchday five.
With the Black and Blues boasting one of the most potent offences in the competition and nine different marksmen scoring the ten goals so far, it should not be a disadvantage that the Gasperini eleven will have to play to win on Wednesday night. In any case, it is in the club’s DNA to celebrate bold attacking football. Unfortunately, this is sometimes at the expense of the defence. In 22 Champions League matches involving the “Gli Orobici”, 78 goals have already been scored, i.e. an average of 3.5 per match – the highest figure of all European clubs that have played at least 20 times in the top flight.
It may therefore even be a possibility to combine our predicted home win for the Italians with the addition of “Over 2.5”.
Predicted line-up of Atalanta Bergamo:
Musso – Demiral, Palomino, Toloi – Maehle, de Roon, Freuler, Zappacosta – Pessina (Pasalic), Malinovksiy – Zapata
Last matches played by Atalanta Bergamo:
Serie A
12/04 2021 – SSC Napoli 2 – 3 Atalanta Bergamo
11/30 2021 – Atalanta Bergamo 4 – 0 Venice
11/27 2021 – Juventus Turin 0 – 1 Atalanta Bergamo
Champions League Grp. F
11/23 2021 – BSC Young Boys 3 – 3 Atalanta Bergamo
Serie A
11/20 2021 – Atalanta Bergamo 5 – 2 Spezia
Villarreal – Statistics & current form
If Villarreal had won their home game against Manchester United a fortnight ago, they would have been safely in the last 16 before the last matchday. However, due to an unbelievable waste of chances in the first half and a clear increase of the “Red Devils” after the break, the team of coach Unai Emery finally had to succumb with 0:2.
Nevertheless, the Spaniards are still in pole position for second place. A draw in Bergamo on Wednesday evening would be enough to move into the last 16. However, the statistics show how difficult it will be to achieve the required result. Villarreal have only won one of their last eight away games in the European Cup against Italian teams. In the UEFA Europa League, the “Yellow Submarine” won 1-0 at AS Roma in 2016/17.
Villarreal fight national results crisis
Making matters worse, the reigning Europa League winners have never won two CL away games in a row in their own club history. The last win was 4-1, which also ended a five-match losing streak away from home in the most important club competition.
Nevertheless, we are far from saying that Emery’s team is in good shape. Quite the opposite. In La Liga, only one of the last eight games ! was won. Instead, they have suffered five defeats, including the one at Sevilla at the weekend. The “yellow submarine” has slipped to 14th place in the standings.
The forecast for a home win between Atalanta Bergamo and Villarreal is therefore primarily based on the different form curves. At least in terms of personnel, things are looking good. It is quite possible that even the long-missing star striker Gerard Moreno will make his comeback to the starting eleven on Wednesday evening after a long injury.
Predicted Villarreal line-up:
Rulli – Estupinian, Torres, Albiol, Foyth – Gómez, Capoue, Parejo, Chukwueze – Alcàcer, Moreno
Last matches played by Villarreal:
LaLiga
12/04 2021 – Sevilla 1 – 0 Villarreal FC
Copa del Rey
11/30 2021 – Victoria CF 0 – 8 Villarreal FC
LaLiga
11/27 2021 – Villarreal FC 1 – 3 Barcelona
Champions League Grp. F
11/23 2021 – Villarreal FC 0 – 2 Manchester United
LaLiga
11/20 2021 – Celta Vigo 1 – 1 Villarreal FC
Atalanta Bergamo – Villarreal Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The first leg in mid-September was the first and only meeting between these two clubs so far. Remo Freuler gave the Italians the lead before the Spaniards turned the match around through Trigueros and Danjuma. National player Gosens, who will not be available on Wednesday, provided the final goal for a 2-2 draw.
Atalanta Bergamo – Villarreal tip
On the sixth matchday in the Champions League, there are not many classic finals for a place in the last 16 still up for grabs. In Group F, however, we can look forward to exactly such a “do-or-die” match. While Manchester United have already won their group and Young Boys from Bern have no chance of advancing, the direct duel between Bergamo and Villarreal will decide who will follow the English record champions into the knockout round.
If we believe the betting odds before the match between Atalanta Bergamo and Villarreal, then the Italians have the advantage on their side. No wonder, because on the one hand the Bergamasques are in an outstanding condition. On the other hand, “La Dea” has been predestined for decisive group matches in the top division in recent years.
In addition, it should be noted that the Spanish guests have no leg to stand on at all at national level, have never won twice in a row in the Champions League and also have a weak record in Italy.
We therefore believe that betting on a home win between Atalanta Bergamo and Villarreal offers promising value.
