Aston Villa go into the match as heavy favourites
The long cup weekend in England also sees duels with uneven conditions, one of which takes place in Birmingham. An Aston Villa vs Stevenage tip that doesn’t go in favour of the hosts would be quite surprising. The home side clearly have the favourites on their side.
Three leagues difference between Aston Villa and the visitors. Premier League against League Two, and at the stadium of the team with the higher league standing: the omens are not exactly good for the visitors. Nevertheless, the fighting spirit is likely to be unbroken.
The Aston Villa vs. Stevenage prediction also includes that there should be some goals to see. Especially if the hosts put in a good day’s form and manage to take an early lead, a lot can happen. Whether it will be exciting depends mostly on how seriously the hosts go into this game.
Aston Villa – Statistics & current form
It has not been an easy season for Aston Villa so far. The team has had to fight off a lot of adversity, including having their manager sacked. Unai Emery is now at work, but the Spaniard has not yet found the key to consistency either. But: Most recently, there was a win against Tottenham, followed by a draw against improved Wolves. So the trend under the 51-year-old is at least pointing in the right direction.
With only two defeats from the last six games and three wins in this phase, this is also underpinned by the balance sheet. In addition, six goals were conceded in the last five league games, which already shows where Unai Emery wants to go with his team. There should be more compactness, and at the same time he attaches importance to his team managing to play flat from their own defence.
Opponents Stevenage, who are at home three leagues below Aston Villa, could be just the right place to practise some procedures. The favourites are so clearly the home side that a little rotation is also possible to get some freshness on the field. Nevertheless, some key players are likely to be on the pitch from the start
Aston Villa with solid home record
Aston Villa are doing slightly better at home than away. The hosts have scored almost twice as many of their own goals at home, and four of their six wins in the league have also come at Villa Park. Nevertheless, this only conceals the problem in the offensive. 20 goals from 18 games is not a good rate, and now there are rumours about the departure of Danny Ings, the best striker.
That’s something the managers have to solve now. Ings should really only be given away if a new striker is signed. In any case, the hosts have only scored more than two goals in two games so far, so perhaps the opponents from the fourth division will come at just the right time. Due to the clear superiority of the home side, our prediction before the Aston Villa vs Stevenage match is that more than 2.5 goals will be scored.
Predicted Aston Villa line-up:
Olsen – Cash, Mings, Bednarek, Augustinsson – Douglas Luiz, Nakamba, McGinn – Buendia, Bailey, Watkins
Last matches played by Aston Villa:
Premier League
05/01/2023 – Aston Villa 1 – 1 Wolverhampton
01/01/2023 – Tottenham 0 – 2 Aston Villa
27/12/2022 – Aston Villa 1 – 3 Liverpool FC
Club friendlies
16/12/2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 1 Villarreal FC
11/12/2022 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Aston Villa
Stevenage – Statistics & current form
Stevenage FC play in the English League Two, the fourth highest division in English football. Consequently, a very clear distribution of roles is already emerging before this match. However, Steve Evans’ team feels quite comfortable in the role of outsider, because even in the league the team often plays quite defensively.
With five defenders in the line-up, they last played against Gillingham in the league. The narrow 1-0 win meant that Stevenage remain in second place in League Two and have a very good chance of promotion. This goal drives the team and a positive outcome of the game against Aston Villa would of course ensure a broad chest.
But just being able to keep up to some extent should please the spectators and the players. An away trip to a first division team is not an everyday occurrence. The visitors are in good form, with only one defeat in their last ten games. The team has been at the top of the league for a long time, playing consistently throughout the season.
The defence is the showpiece
24 games have been played in the league, with only defeats for Stevenage. The showpiece is the defence, 17 goals conceded so far only. That should undoubtedly be a good basis for this cup match, but the qualities of the usual opponents cannot be compared with those of Villa.
To make matters worse, there is a clear discrepancy between home and away games. Stevenage conceded 11 of their 17 goals away from home and have only managed four of their 15 wins away from home this season. The discrepancy in points average per game is 1.17!
That could have an impact on this game, because the support of the crowd is especially important for outsiders. For this reason, ahead of the Aston Villa v Stevenage game, our value tip is for the home side to win by more than a two-goal difference.
Predicted Stevenage line-up:
Chapman – Smith, Piergianni, Bostwick, Sweeney, Clark – Campbell, Gilbey, Roberts, Amoo – Norris
Last matches played by Stevenage:
League Two
02/01/2023 – Stevenage 1 – 0 Gillingham
31/12/2022 – Stevenage 3 – 1 Crawley
27/12/2022 – Leyton Orient 0 – 0 Stevenage
EFL Trophy Final Stage
14/12/2022 – Portsmouth 3 – 0 Stevenage
League Two
10/12/2022 – Stevenage 0 – 0 Mansfield
Aston Villa – Stevenage Direct comparison / H2H balance
It happens very rarely in English football, but these two teams have never faced each other. That’s why there is no data in direct comparison
Aston Villa – Stevenage Tip
Aston Villa cannot dismiss their own role as favourites. The differences between the two teams are too great. Consequently, the signs also clearly point to a win for the hosts.
With such a difference in quality, it could definitely be a high-scoring affair, especially if the hosts score early. Therefore, ahead of the Aston Villa vs Stevenage match, our tip is that more than 2.5 goals will be scored.
