Tough debut for Unai Emery as Villa manager

The penultimate matchday in the English Premier League before the start of the 2022 Winter World Cup has a lot to offer. In addition to top matches such as the derby between the Blues and the Gunners, Unai Emery’s coaching comeback on the island is a central topic in particular. The Spaniard will take his place on the Villians’ bench for the first time on Sunday afternoon in Aston Villa’s home game against Manchester United.

Emery exercised his get-out clause to leave the Villarreal yellow sub to take up Steven Gerrard’s legacy at the Birmingham club. The former Arsenal coach does not have an easy task ahead of him on his comeback to the island, as the hosts are considered clear underdogs in the clash against the in-form Red Devils. Odds of 2.10 are on offer between Aston Villa and Manchester United, while a home win attracts odds of 3.50.

Not necessarily a glimmer of hope is the fact that none of the last nine PL coaches to make their debut against the Red Devils have managed to pick up a point. A certain Alan Curbishley in 2006 was the last head coach to avoid defeat in his first competitive game (with West Ham).

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

Steven Gerrard was considered by many football pundits to be the legitimate successor to Jürgen Klopp at Liverpool FC. He led Glasgow Rangers to the Scottish title before returning to England. That return was far from successful and after 40 competitive games averaging 1.18 points per game later, Gerrard is out of a job again. The aforementioned Unai Emery has been unveiled as the new head coach and is expected to finally lead the Villians back towards single-digit league positions.

Disastrous record against top teams

After interim coach Aaron Danks enjoyed a thumping 4-0 win over Brentford in his first game in charge, Aston Villa suffered another 4-0 defeat last weekend, underlining once again that the Villians are nothing more than a points supplier against teams in the top six.

13 of Aston Villa’s last 14 Premier League games against a current top-six side have ended in defeat. Aston Villa have conceded no less than 33 goals and have only managed one draw. So the omens for a point on Emery’s debut are anything but good.

On average, 2.38 goals per game have been scored in Villa matches so far this season. The attack is far from outstanding with only eleven goals (four of them against Brentford), while the defence has conceded 20 so far. Those who know Emery know that he does not stand for unconditional offensive football, but rather wants to stabilise the defence. Especially on his debut against a top team, a very destructive football is expected. This logically leads to the prediction of few goals in the duel between Aston Villa and Manchester United.

Predicted line-up of Aston Villa:
Olsen – Young, Mings, Konsa, Cash – Dendoncker, Douglas Luiz – Bailey, Buendia, Watkins – Ings

Last matches played by Aston Villa:

Premier League
29/10/2022 – Newcastle 4 – 0 Aston Villa

23/10/2022 – Aston Villa 4 – 0 Brentford

21/10/2022 – Fulham 3 – 0 Aston Villa

16/10/2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 2 Chelsea FC

11/10/2022 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 1 Aston Villa

Manchester United – Statistics & current form

As a Manchester United fan, you’ve had to suffer a lot in recent years and rarely had reason to rejoice. The signing of Ajax coach Erik ten Hag certainly caused euphoria, but after the first few weeks it had completely disappeared. The familiar problems were still present at the beginning and games like the 0:4 against Brentford on the second matchday represented a historic negative record. However, shortly before the start of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the tide has turned and gradually the Red Devils are able to show some consistency again.

Nine matches without defeat

23 points from twelve league games are still a plus of six points compared to last season. Manchester United last had more points after a dozen league games in the 2017/18 season (26 points). In recent weeks, the team has played itself into a frenzy and has not lost a game since the 3:6 in the derby against Manchester City. There were seven wins (four of them in the Europa League) and two draws. They drew against Newcastle (4th) and Chelsea (6th).

In the Europa League, they managed a 1-0 win against Real Sociedad de San Sebastian in the Basque Country on Thursday evening, but still missed out on winning the group. The direct comparison with the Basques was even, but RSSS had a goal difference that was one goal better. Thus, the Red Devils have to play an additional knockout round in spring.

All in all, a clear rise in form can be seen. In addition, Manchester United have shown in recent weeks that they can keep a cool head even in tight games. Eight of their 13 wins this season have come by a one-goal margin. Between Aston Villa and Manchester United, the prediction on a handicap win is therefore not recommended.

An interesting option could be a somewhat riskier goal bet on a goal by former star Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese was reprieved after being denied a substitution against Tottenham and was recently allowed to start in the league as well. Aston Villa are his favourite opponents, as he has not scored more against any other team in the PL (eight goals).

Predicted Manchester United line-up:
de Gea – Shaw, Martinez, Maguira, Dalot – Eriksen, Casemiro – Rashford, Bruno Fernandes, Elanga – Cristiano Ronaldo

Last matches played by Manchester United:

Europa League Grp. E
04/11/2022 – Real Sociedad 0 – 1 Manchester United

Premier League
30/10/2022 – Manchester United 1 – 0 West Ham

Europa League Grp. E
28/10/2022 – Manchester United 3 – 0 FC Sheriff

Premier League
22/10/2022 – Chelsea FC 1 – 1 Manchester United

20/10/2022 – Manchester United 2 – 0 Tottenham

Aston Villa – Manchester United Direct Comparison / H2H Record

Last season, Aston Villa surprised in their two games against the Red Devils, picking up four points. The away win at Old Trafford also broke a long negative streak, as in the 17 games before, Aston Villa also only managed four point wins against Manchester United (without a win, four draws, 13 defeats).

The home advantage is not really there for the home side on Sunday, as the last time they managed a home win against the Red Devils was in the 1995/96 season. Since then, Manchester United have played 23 times at Villa Park, winning 15 and drawing eight. The run of 23 away games without defeat against any opponent is the longest in the history of English professional football.

Aston Villa – Manchester United Tip

For Manchester United, the name has usually been bigger than the performance on the field in recent years. Gradually, the Red Devils have understood Erik ten Hag’s philosophy and are delivering strong performances and results. The home side, on the other hand, have been one of the disappointments of the season so far. As a result, the odds on an away win between Aston Villa and Manchester United seem disproportionately high.

A new head coach certainly provides new impetus and a sense of optimism, yet there is a lack of belief that Unai Emery can surprise on his debut on the Villa bench. The home side certainly have more quality to offer than they have shown recently, but given the current form curves of both teams, a bet on the visitors is the logical choice. Moreover, Manchester United have not lost at Villa Park for almost three decades. Between Aston Villa and Manchester United, the prediction “Win Manchester United” is recommended with six units bet.