Do Leeds stalk Villa?
After a lot of disjointed fixtures around the turn of the year, as well as the FA Cup ties the week before, we can look forward to another regular fixture day in the Premier League this coming weekend, with some highlight fixtures.
The match kicks off on Friday evening when Aston Villa and Leeds face each other. A bet on the outcome of the match is quite complicated, as both teams have lacked any consistency in the course of the season so far and especially in recent weeks. Good approaches can be seen in some cases, but there are always slip-ups as well.
For the prediction between Aston Villa and Leeds, it must also be taken into account that both teams not only had a hard time against lower-class opponents in the FA Cup, but in the case of the Villans even disgraced themselves to the bone. Emery’s side lost 2-1 at home to fourth division Stevenage and will need to redeem themselves in the upcoming league game if they are not to suffer lasting damage.
Aston Villa – Statistics & current form
Unai Emery has now been on the Aston Villa bench for seven competitive games. Their record of three wins, one draw and three defeats reads average at best. The Spaniard’s first real blow in his new role came last weekend, when his team lost 2-1 at home to fourth-division Stevenage despite leading 1-0 and were thus eliminated from the FA Cup. The goals were scored in minutes 88 and 90.
It will be interesting to see what effect this bitter pill will have on the rest of the season and the upcoming matches. On the positive side, there is already a chance to make amends on Friday evening. In Aston Villa’s home match against Leeds, the odds are even in favour of the home side, even though they have only managed to win one of their past six Premier League home matches against their upcoming opponents.
Already 13 goals in the first 15 minutes of all AVFC encounters
But the bottom line is that the Villans are definitely stronger at home than away. Four of their six wins this season have come at home. 13 of 20 goals were scored in front of their own fans and they also looked more vulnerable defensively away from home (16 goals conceded) than at Villa Park (ten). The basis for a pleasing result on Friday evening is therefore actually in place. Nevertheless, we would rather refrain from predicting a home win between Aston Villa and Leeds.
The reason for this is the recent disappointing performance in the league with a 1-1 draw against Wolverhampton or in the FA Cup match mentioned above. Even in the 2-0 away win against Tottenham, the Birmingham players were clearly inferior, but were convincing on this day with their merciless efficiency. Nevertheless, it is becoming increasingly clear that Emery’s team is less comfortable in the role of favourites and has problems taking the initiative. Another point loss is therefore quite possible from the point of view of the 11th-placed team.
This is also supported by the fact that the Villans have lost six of their last nine Premier League matches played on Fridays. Apart from that, goals are to be expected at the start of matchday 20. There have been at least two goals in 15 of the 18 league games involving AVFC. Also interesting: In the past five PL home games, the ball has always crossed the goal line at least once in the first 15 minutes. John McGinn, Diego Carlos and Leander Dendoncker are out. Cash and Augustinsson are question marks.
Predicted line-up of Aston Villa:
Martinez; Young, Konsa, Mings, Digne; Cash, Kamara, Luiz, Buendia; Watkins, Bailey
Last matches played by Aston Villa:
FA Cup
08/01/2023 – Aston Villa 1 – 2 Stevenage
Premier League
05/01/2023 – Aston Villa 1 – 1 Wolverhampton
01/01/2023 – Tottenham 0 – 2 Aston Villa
27/12/2022 – Aston Villa 1 – 3 Liverpool FC
Club friendlies
16/12/2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 1 Villarreal FC
Leeds – Statistics & current form
Leeds United remain trapped in the lower mid-table. At the moment, the Whites are in 14th place, but are only two points clear of the first relegation spot. Emotionally, however, the squad actually has a bit more going for it, so former RB coach Jesse Marsch often has to put up with the question of why his team doesn’t get the available horsepower on the road on a regular basis.
In recent weeks, the traditional club has been able to stabilise somewhat in the top flight. Only two of the last six Premier League games were lost. These two defeats came against Manchester City and Tottenham and were therefore easy to cope with.
Gorgeous attacking football with defensive lapses
Recently, there were two deserved draws against Newcastle United (0-0) and West Ham (2-2), which once again showed that it has recently become more complicated to defeat the Peacocks. For this reason, among others, we are not averse to considering odds on the double chance X2 before the duel Aston Villa vs Leeds.
Also conceivable is an approach that at least three goals will be scored in the course of the match. After all, there have already been 56 goals in 17 games for the northerners, i.e. an average of more than three per match. Away from home, there have been 27 goals in only eight games. In five cases, a bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through. In total, betting on 3+ goals would have paid off in six of the Whites’ past seven PL matches.
Defensively, in particular, the Marsh team continues to reveal deficiencies. Only four other teams in the English top flight have conceded more goals away from home than last year’s 17th-placed team, which relies primarily on Rodrigo offensively. The centre-forward has ten goals to his name this season, but is now being bolstered by the arrival of TSG Hoffenheim’s Georgino Rutter. The French U21 international will still be absent on Friday, however. As will Sinisterra, Forshaw, Gray and Dallas. Bamford, on the other hand, could make his eagerly awaited comeback after injury.
Predicted Leeds line-up:
Meslier; Ayling, Koch, Cooper, Struijk; Roca, Adams; Aaronson, Gnonto, Summerville; Rodrigo
Last matches played by Leeds:
FA Cup
08/01/2023 – Cardiff 2 – 2 Leeds
Premier League
05/01/2023 – Leeds 2 – 2 West Ham
31/12/2022 – Newcastle 0 – 0 Leeds
29/12/2022 – Leeds 1 – 3 Manchester City
Club friendlies
22/12/2022 – Leeds 2 – 4 AS Monaco
Aston Villa – Leeds Direct comparison / H2H record
83 clashes to date in the English top flight. With 28 wins compared to 28 draws and 27 defeats, Aston Villa lead the direct comparison by a whisker. 19 of their 28 wins have come at home, although the visitors from the north of England have only lost one of their six most recent PL fixtures at Villa Park (three wins, two draws).
While the first leg ended goalless 0-0 in the ninth matchday this season, we expect a spectacular match with at least three goals after 90 minutes this time. Just like in the 2021/22 pre-season, when there was a 3-3 draw at Villa Park.
Aston Villa – Leeds Tip
The 20th Premier League matchday opens with a duel from the mid-table. Although Aston Villa and Leeds are separated by five points, we still see the two teams on an equal footing in terms of quality and football. Consequently, it is not an option for us to place a bet on the three-way market between Aston Villa and Leeds.
Instead, we prefer a bet on the number of goals. Although there was not a single goal in the first leg at the beginning of October, we assume that there will definitely be goals this time. This is supported by the statistics of the last matches on the one hand and on the other hand by the latest subjective impressions, which have revealed defensive weaknesses in both teams.
