Can Villa pull off a win against fearful opponents Burnley?

Saturday sees the 100th clash between Aston Villa and Burnley at Villa Park. Two teams with different approaches will meet. On the one side the Villans peppered with top-class players in the offensive. On the other side the Clarets, who primarily rely on good defending.

After the game during the week, both teams go into the conclusion of the English week with different omens. Aston Villa could land a must-win against last-place Norwich four days earlier. Burnley, on the other hand, were able to regenerate a little more days given the cancellation of the game against Watford due to numerous cases of infection on the part of the Bees.

The 18th matchday holds a game in store in the duel between the Villans and the Clarets, where a strong home team receives a weak away team. In Aston Villa vs. Burnley, the betting odds point to a win for the hosts, even though they have looked poor in recent matches. We highlight both forms and the relevant statistics in our analysis.

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

Steven Gerrard, who took over at Villa on 11/11, has decent statistics to look at so far. With Brighton, Crystal Palace, Leicester and Norwich, four victories have already been recorded in a short space of time. In the last six games, only heavyweights such as Manchester City and Liverpool were narrowly beaten.

Having taken over in 16th place in the table, the new coach has already made up six places. Unfortunately, for the ambitions of Aston Villa, who had to accept the departure of Jack Grealish in the summer but welcomed three prominent new arrivals in Buendia, Bailey and Ings and spent a total of over 100 million euros, this is still not quite what was envisaged before the season. Birmingham would love to knock on the door of the top six and get a taste of European competition once again.

Goal threat at Villa Park

Aston Villa always score goals at home. In the last nine games in front of their own fans, they always scored at least one goal. Beyond that, the Villans usually straddle the extremes. None of the last 14 league games ended in a draw.

In the upcoming game, striker Danny Ings in particular could provide a scoring threat again. The 29-year-old is particularly fond of scoring against ex-clubs. He has scored five times in his last seven matches against former employers. Especially against Burnley it seems to be going well. In each of his last three games against the Clarets he was able to increase his goal tally.

Besides Danny Ings, Ollie Watkins should be the focus of the opposing defence. Since the beginning of the last Premier League season, the striker has been involved in 25 league goals. He has scored 19 goals himself and set up six others. It was only during the week against Norwich that he managed two scorer points with a goal and an assist.

The week’s win against bottom side Norwich was the next must-win. Now, in the clash between Aston Villa and Burnley, all predictions again go in the direction of the hosts.

In terms of personnel, coach Gerrad would have no reason to rotate apart from the correct load management in view of the strenuous winter in the Premier League. It is quite possible that veteran Ashley Young will get a breather. He would be replaced by Danny Ings, who should be particularly motivated against his ex-club.

Projected Aston Villa line-up:
Martinez – Targett, Mings, Konsa, Cash – Ramsey, Luiz, McGinn – Ings, Watkins, Buendia

Last matches played by Aston Villa:

Premier League
12/14 2021 – Norwich 0 – 2 Aston Villa

12/11 2021 – Liverpool FC 1 – 0 Aston Villa

12/05 2021 – Aston Villa 2 – 1 Leicester

12/01 2021 – Aston Villa 1 – 2 Manchester City

11/27 2021 – Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Aston Villa

Burnley – Statistics & current form

Once again, Burnley FC represent a certain kind of football this season. Under long-time coach Sean Dyche, they operate from a compact defensive position. The Clarets have now been first class since the 16/17 season. They have always had a negative goal-scoring record at the end of the season. The main reasons for this have always been a relatively harmless attack and a strong defence that concedes relatively few goals.

A look at the last three league games makes it clear what to often expect in games involving Burnley. Burnley have been without a goal of their own for more than three games now. In addition, they have scored only once per game on the opponent’s goal. The last time they went four games without a goal of their own was in November 2020.

The biggest hope to end this negative streak, especially for the upcoming game, is Chris Wood. The striker scored four goals in his last five appearances against Villa. Alongside him, newcomer Maxwel Cornet has been particularly convincing. With five goals in nine appearances, he clearly leads the internal goalscoring list. After recovering from a thigh problem, the speedy dribbler from Côte d’Ivoire is now expected to be back in the starting eleven.

Burnley happy to travel to Villa Park

Even though Burnley are currently on a nine-game winless streak away from home, a visit to Villa Park actually comes in handy. The last time they lost there was in 2010, after which the Clarets went unbeaten seven times in a row.

Apart from their fondness for Villa Park, Burnley are having a poor season away from home. With four points from eight games, they are currently second to last in the away table with six goals of their own and 13 conceded.

Currently, they are two points behind the save shore. To prevent this gap from widening, they need to score in the next match. In the game Aston Villa vs. Burnley, we recommend primarily betting on the odds for few goals. We expect the visitors to keep the score as close as possible for as long as possible, and then to make a few pinpricks in the course of the game. Burnley could possibly live with a draw.

After the decent performance and the point win against a strong West Ham team and the break during the week due to the loss of the match against Watford, no big changes in the starting line-up are expected.

Predicted Burnley line-up:
Pope – Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor – Gudmundsson, Westwood, Cork, McNeil – Cornet, Wood

Last games played by Burnley:

Premier League
12/12 2021 – Burnley 0 – 0 West Ham

12/04 2021 – Newcastle United 1 – 0 Burnley

12/01 2021 – Wolverhampton 0 – 0 Burnley

11/20 2021 – Burnley 3 – 3 Crystal Palace

11/06 2021 – Chelsea London 1 – 1 Burnley

Aston Villa – Burnley Direct comparison / H2H record

The 100th meeting between Aston Villa and Burnley is set to be a landmark fixture. While the hosts would like to look more towards the top third of the table, the visitors are clearly fighting against relegation. Villa have a slight advantage in the direct duel. They have won 42 games. Burnley, on the other hand, have won 35 matches.

Aston Villa – Burnley Tip

Not only because of the individual superiority on the part of Aston Villa, but above all because of the upswing they are experiencing under Steven Gerrard, they go into the upcoming duel with Burnley as clear favourites.

Burnley have regularly made life difficult for their opponents. With only one defeat from their last seven games in the league, Sean Dyche’s men are proving once again that they can always compete with their robust style of football. Still, some question marks remain in their own attack.

The Premier League is currently in a turbulent and unpredictable phase. Again and again matches are cancelled due to numerous cases of infection. In the upcoming match between the two teams dressed in claret, however, we expect a little less spectacle. In keeping with the last meeting of the two teams at Villa Park, which ended goalless, we recommend playing the odds on few goals in the match between Aston Villa and Burnley. We bet 7 units on a game under 2.5.