Do the Villans undermine their CL ambitions?

Around the turn of the year, the English Premier League kicks off the second half of the current season. Matchday 20 runs from December 30 to January 2. Six games will be played on Saturday, including a clash of opposites in Birmingham. In the match between Aston Villa and Burnley, a bet on the home side is clearly favored. Emery’s side are dreaming of the top flight, while promoted Burnley are mired in the depths of relegation

Although the home side have suffered setbacks in their last two games, there is a lot to be said for predicting a home win at Aston Villa v Burnley on Saturday afternoon from 4pm. The Villans are in outstanding form, especially in front of their home crowd, and have collected no fewer than 46 points in their last 16 PL home games. The Clarets have picked up eight of their eleven points this season away from home, but another points haul at Villa Park would definitely fall into the surprising category.

A win in the final game of the year would be the Villans’ 26th win of the calendar year. It would also see them secure second place in the table in 2023. Emery has formed a strong and, above all, successful team from Aston Villa, who are quite rightly the clear favorites going into this game.

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

46 points from 16 home games were already mentioned at the outset and represent an almost spotless record. Until a few days ago, Emery’s side had even won 15 home games in a row over the course of the season, before drawing 1-1 with promoted and bottom-placed Sheffield United. Aston Villa have been warned after their slip-up against a relegation candidate and will not be taking the game against the Clarets lightly.

Moreover, the memories of a home game in the last league match of the year are not particularly good. In fact, the last home win in such a game was a whopping 20 years ago (2003: 3-0 against Fulham). Since then, the Villans have won their last game at home nine times and only managed four draws. However, Emery’s record against the Clarets is a good omen, as the Spanish head coach has won all four games, three times 3-1. Based on this, the betting tip for Aston Villa vs Burnley could be “home win & both teams score”

2:0 lead not enough at Old Trafford

The unexpected point loss against the Blades from Sheffield was not the only setback in recent days. Aston Villa also suffered disappointment in their first game after Christmas. The visitors started brightly at Old Trafford and quickly took a 2-0 lead, but Aston Villa actually let that lead slip and Rasmus Höljund’s first Premier League goal finally gave Manchester United a 3-2 comeback win.

Despite these two setbacks, Emery’s side will in all likelihood finish the 2023 calendar year in second place. In 41 league games, the team from Birmingham has an outstanding 82 points (25 wins). Only Manchester City are ahead in this statistic with 90 points. Aston Villa have picked up 50 of these 82 points at home and, with 16 home wins, have won more often than at any time since 1983 (18 home wins).

Top striker Ollie Watkins could also set a club record with a goal. He has scored eleven times in front of a home crowd this year, only the legendary Dwight Yorke has ever surpassed this (twelve goals in 1996).

Predicted Aston Villa line-up:

Burnley – Statistics & current form

The difference between the Championship and the Premier League is considerable. Vincent Kompany’s team will also have to acknowledge this by now. The former professional caused quite a stir in the basement with the Clarets last year. He injected Burnley with a new style, instead of kick-and-rush there was modern attacking soccer. The Championship was played into the ground, but in the Premier League one negative experience followed the next. Despite only eleven points from 19 games, the club’s management is still holding on to the Belgian. At five points, the gap to the safety zone is still manageable, but the turnaround must gradually be achieved

Lots of talent, little experience

After 19 matchdays, Kompany’s team has already conceded more goals than in 46 Championship games last season. European Under-21 champion James Trafford has already conceded 38 times this season. But it is not only the defense that has not been up to Premier League standard so far this season, the same applies to the offense. With only 18 goals scored, Burnley have not even scored one goal per league game on average. Both figures are only undercut by bottom club Sheffield United. Speaking of Sheffield – Burnley have scored five times against the Blades. This leaves a meagre 13 goals in the remaining 18 games.

One problem in the Burnley squad is certainly the lack of experience. Kompany wants technically well-trained players who show a lot of creativity. However, there are hardly any experienced players to lead the youngsters. The few oldies such as Jay Rodriguez, Johann Berg Gudmundsson or Jack Cork are only supplementary players. The youngsters desperately need a sense of achievement to get them out of the maelstrom.

In their last away game, Burnley celebrated a 3-0 win against the Cottagers from Fulham. If the prediction for Aston Villa v Burnley on Saturday is successful, betting odds of over 8.00. This would be the first back-to-back away win since the spring of 2021.

Predicted Burnley line-up:

Aston Villa – Burnley head-to-head comparison / H2H record

If the betting tip on the favorite goes through for Aston Villa vs. Burnley on Saturday afternoon, the team from Birmingham would win the so-called “League Double” against the Clarets for the first time since the 1925/26 season. Back then, the Villans won the home game with a commanding 10-0 victory, but it is unlikely to be as clear-cut this weekend. Emery’s side won the first clash of the season at Turf Moor (August 27) 3-1. A small glimmer of hope for the visitors is the fact that Burnley have scored in each of their last four visits to Villa Park (one win, three draws).

Aston Villa – Burnley betting tip

For the first time this season, Aston Villa missed out on two successive wins. This is a clear indication of the Emery team’s outstanding season. The team is going from success to success, especially at home. No fewer than 26 goals have been scored in nine home games, which is also the highest figure in the current PL season. The Clarets have the second weakest defense, which makes Aston Villa vs Burnley the odds for betting on many goals

Our main betting tip finally falls in the direction of the Over 3.5. In six of the nine home games, this was the right decision and accordingly, odds of up to 2.40 for Aston Villa vs Burnley are interesting for this tip. A moderate four units is the stake for this bet.

Other exciting bets from our point of view are the bets on “Both teams to score” and the bet “Aston Villa to win and both teams to score”. Surprising at first glance (Aston Villa, for example, have only conceded six goals at home), but the two recent setbacks could well create opportunities for the Clarets, which is why we consider a goal by the visitors to be likely