Will the Kazakhs go ahead in the first leg?

Georgian football is going through a good phase at the moment. On the one hand, this became clear in recent weeks when the U21 team surprisingly advanced to the quarter-finals of the European Championship at home and put the fear of God into some of the favourites along the way. On the other hand, Kvicha Kvaratskhelia has also played a major role in the fact that the fans are currently wearing their country’s jersey with great pride.
Only the club teams still have some catching up to do on the international stage. But that is set to change in the 2023/24 European Cup season, although reigning champions Dinamo Tbilisi will find it very difficult to get through even one UEFA Champions League qualifying round.

Ahead of the first leg between Astana and Dinamo Tbilisi, the best bookmakers are predicting a narrow win for the Kazakhs. The To-Qualify market is offering a 1.70 for Astana, a 2.07 for the title holders from Georgia to progress.

Compared to many other teams who will play their first competitive match of the season on Tuesday or Wednesday, the clubs from their respective country’s capitals are in full juice. A lack of match practice or a clearly different fitness level are therefore irrelevant and do not need to be taken into account with regard to the Astana vs Dinamo Tbilisi tip for this first leg in Eastern Europe. In a match of equals, we therefore expect rather few goals.

Astana – Statistics & current form

Astana Football Club have had quite an eventful past in the European Cup. In 2015/16, the Kazakh top team qualified for the UEFA Champions League group stage for the last time, in which the underdogs even remained unbeaten in four of six games, but were ultimately eliminated without a win. Four appearances in the main draw of the Europa League have followed to date, although the trend has not necessarily been upwards in the recent past.

Last season, for example, the Blue and Yellows were eliminated in the second round of the Conference League by Polish representative Rakow. The score was 0:6 after the first and second legs, which is why the tenure of coach Srdjan Blagojevic was to end only a short time later. In the end, however, the change of coach to Grigoriy Babayan was the best thing that could have happened to the club, which was only founded in this form in 2009.

FK Astana does not stand for spectacle

Under the 43-year-old, who was once employed in the role of co-coach, interim coach and head coach (2018) in the capital, things went steadily uphill, with 22 wins in 31 competitive matches (four draws, five defeats). With a one-point lead, they finally won their first league title since 2019 and thus punched their ticket for the qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League.

In the current season, the Blue and Yellows currently have to make do with second place. Nevertheless, their record of eleven wins, two draws and two defeats is impressive. However, the goal difference of 22:13 underlines the fact that the matches involving FK do not end with many goals.

In fact, in six of the past nine league matches, a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through. At international level, the three-goal mark has also not been broken in five of the last seven matches. Statistically, therefore, there is much to be said for another under-match for Babayan’s side, who were eliminated in the cup semi-finals a week ago but had previously gone ten consecutive league matches without defeat (eight wins, two draws). Between Astana and Dinamo Tbilisi, the odds on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match therefore include appealing value.

Predicted Astana line-up:
No information available.

Dinamo Tbilisi – Statistics & current form

With a total of 19 championships as well as 13 cup victories, Dinamo Tbilisi is the most renowned and successful football club in Georgia. After an interim dry spell, the traditional club has already won three domestic league titles in the past four years.

It is therefore all the more surprising that coach Giorgi Chiabrishvili’s team has fallen short of expectations this season. After 19 match days, the team is only in fourth place. They are already eight points behind the leaders. Above all, the five defeats already conceded are the highest among the top teams in the Georgian top flight.

Dinamo Tbilisi will travel to Kazakhstan with a broad chest

The biggest weakness of the team, which has already played 170 matches in the European Cup during its long and successful history, is certainly its defence. The 28 goals conceded impressively underline this thesis and definitely serve as an argument to focus on the odds of a good result for the home team in the upcoming qualifying first leg of Astana vs Dinamo Tbilisi.

This is also supported by the fact that Chiabrishvili’s team has only been back in action since last week after a month-long summer break. Nevertheless, there is no question of a lack of match practice, especially since Dinamo Tbilisi recently won the small final four of the national Super Cup against Dila Gori and Dinamo Batumi.

Both the semi-final and the final ended with under 2.5 goals. In the end, the penalty shootout had to decide in both cases. On Wednesday evening, too, the underdog’s approach must be to first be compact defensively and to set pinpricks in the transition game. But since we think the Georgians are a little weaker in terms of quality, our prediction between Astana and Dinamo Tbilisi is more in favour of the hosts. A (narrow) “to-nil” victory should be within the realms of possibility in any case.

Predicted line-up of Dinamo Tbilisi:
No information available.

Astana – Dinamo Tbilisi Direct comparison / H2H-balance

The two clubs have never met at competitive level. Astana, moreover, have never played against a Georgian representative at all. For Dinamo Tbilisi, too, it is a premiere against a club from Kazakhstan. The return match will take place next week in the Georgian capital.

Astana – Dinamo Tbilisi Tip

Astana are favourites against Dinamo Tbilisi according to betting odds. In front of their home crowd, the bookmakers give the Kazakhs the slightly better chances of winning the first leg. We agree with this assessment, although it is incredibly difficult to compare the performance of the two teams.

For this reason, we also look at the teams’ form and see, for example, that FK Astana are unbeaten in the league for ten games and have made a very solid impression, especially defensively. The same cannot be said of the visitors, who have already conceded 28 goals in 19 league games and, as reigning champions, are currently in fourth place, falling far short of their own expectations.

We therefore believe that the home side will have the upper hand. It is even conceivable to bet on FK Astana winning the first leg in their own stadium without conceding a goal. For the more risk-averse bettors, Betano’s special bet that the match will end 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 may be worth considering.

In our eyes, however, there is an attractive value hidden between Astana and Dinamo Tbilisi in the bet on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match.