Will Romans benefit from home advantage?

With Roma or FC Porto, a heavyweight will definitely have to leave the international stage for this season on Thursday evening. After the 1-1 draw in the first leg in Portugal, anything is still possible ahead of the second leg at the Stadio Olimpico. However, the role of favorites goes to the Romans, who have hardly allowed themselves any slip-ups in recent weeks and months, especially in front of a home crowd. Should a bet on the Italians advancing between AS Roma and Porto actually come true on Thursday evening, a city duel against Lazio could be on the cards in the round of 16. The other potential opponent would be Athletic Bilbao.

Ahead of that, however, coach Claudio Ranieri’s side face an intense 90 minutes or even more. If you take the first leg from a week ago as a blueprint, the spectators in the Olympic Stadium should be prepared for a tough affair and lots of duels rather than lots of goals. The AS Roma vs Porto prediction from the German-licensed bookmakers is also pointing towards under-scoring.

In the Italian capital, those in charge are definitely confident, especially as the referee on Thursday will not be Tobias Stieler. The Bundesliga referee drew the hatred of the Romans the previous week after handing out a total of eight yellow cards and sending off Cristante. A visibly angry Ranieri even asked his charges to refuse to shake the referee’s hand after the final whistle.

Regardless of this, the clash between these clubs is highly charged and guaranteed to be exciting. Nevertheless, the odds between AS Roma and Porto favor “I Lupi”. The highest odds for a home win are provided by Winamax.

AS Roma – Statistics & current form

20 competitive matches have been played by Claudio Ranieri following his third appointment as Roma head coach. His record is impressive, with ten wins, five draws and five defeats. Especially when you consider that three of the five defeats mentioned above came in the first six games. The Romans have lost just two of their last 14 matches in all competitions (8-4-2).

In Serie A, “La Magica” are still completely unbeaten in the 2025 calendar year. The capital club even lead the isolated form table for the last five matchdays with 13 out of a possible 15 points in the Italian top flight. 21 out of a possible 27 points have been collected in the past nine league matches. The bottom line is that the Yellow and Reds are in really good shape, which logically serves as a powerful argument for predicting the home team on Thursday evening between AS Roma and Porto.

Roma are brimming with confidence

The argument for Ranieri’s team is further supported by their home strength. They have not lost a competitive match at the Stadio Olimpico since the beginning of December. They have won seven of their last eight home games. The only draw was a 1-1 draw against leaders Napoli. Four goals conceded in this period also underline the defensive stability that has been brought to the Eternal City with the appointment of the experienced Claudio Ranieri.

The Romans also impressed in front of their own fans in the Europa League. Ten points came from four home games in the league phase. The last three victories even included a clean sheet. In fact, 13 of the last 16 Europa League home games have ended in victory for the Giallorossi, so there is almost no alternative but to put the odds on a three-pointer for the hosts on the betting slip ahead of AS Roma’s second leg against Porto. However, if you believe in another win without conceding a goal, you can pick up a 2.80 at Interwetten and benefit from the Interwetten bonus of up to 100 euros.

Predicted line-up of AS Roma:

Porto – Statistics & current form

The 39-year-old Porto head coach Martin Anselmi can confidently be described as a globetrotter. Despite his relatively young coaching career, the Argentinian-born coach has not only worked in his home country, but also in Chile, Brazil and Mexico. He was discovered in a position of responsibility at Cruz Azul and signed by the former Champions League winners from the Portuguese port city.

Although Anselmi is still unbeaten after five competitive matches, he has not been able to spark any euphoria either. In addition to two lackluster wins against Farense at the weekend (1-0) and on his debut against Maccabi Tel Aviv (1-0), there were three draws, including the 1-1 draw in the first leg, which means the Dragons will not be traveling to the Italian capital in a particularly good position. Despite having around 56% possession, the Portuguese side were only able to create a few high-calibre chances and ultimately had to be satisfied with the draw.

Porto have failed to deliver in the EL away from home

The task will be much tougher for the Blue & Whites away from home, especially as they have picked up just four points from four away games in the league phase. Defeats came at Bodö/Glimt and at Roma’s city rivals Lazio. Seven goals conceded in four EL matches and almost twice as many goals conceded in total compared to their upcoming opponents also show that the current third-placed team in the Primeira Liga are not getting the desired consistency in their performances, especially defensively.

In terms of tactics, however, I believe that the initial focus will be on a compact approach. It’s quite possible that the “Dragões” will keep the match open for at least half a game and ultimately have to pay tribute to the Romans’ boldness, cleverness and experience. Particularly risk-averse bettors will find attractive odds of 4.50 in the NEO.bet app for the risky bet on the HTX/FT1 between AS Roma and Porto. With the NEO.bet promo code, you also have a free bet at your disposal.

Predicted Porto line-up:

AS Roma – Porto head-to-head / H2H record

After seven meetings so far, FC Porto lead the head-to-head with three wins and three draws. Only in the 2018/19 Champions League round of 16 did Roma prevail at home in the first leg, but were subsequently eliminated in Portugal. Incidentally, the “Dragões” advanced to the next round against “I Lupi” in all three knockout encounters. So will Porto remain a fearful opponent for the Giallorossi in the European Cup knockout phase?

AS Roma – Porto betting tip

My answer to the question posed in the previous section is: No! I assume that the experienced Romans, who have proven several times in recent years at knockout level how ripped off they are, will make it to the round of 16. Ranieri’s side were more determined and consistent in the first leg a week ago. Defensively, the Italians conceded very little – as has been the case throughout the Europa League season.

On Thursday evening, home advantage will be added to the mix, which is particularly important for the Giallorosi. They have won seven of their last eight competitive matches at the Stadio Olimpico. Since the beginning of December, “La Magica” have not conceded a defeat in their own stadium. My AS Roma vs Porto betting tip therefore aims for a home win. This is quoted at Winamax with a top price of 1.76. My bet is six out of a maximum possible ten units