Are the Romans going to overtake Rasgrad after all?
The week of decisions in the European competitions is upon us. The last matchday of the group stage in the Champions, Europa and Conference League will decide which teams will advance to the knockout rounds. Our focus is on Group C of the Europa League, where a real final will take place between Rome and Rasgrad.
With Betis Sevilla, the group winner and thus the entry into the round of 16 is certain. For the Finns from Helsinki, on the other hand, the excursion into international business is over. HJK have collected just one point so far.
The final decision in this group will be made on Thursday at the Stadio Olimpico. The host AS Rome will receive the guests from Ludogorez Rasgrad from Bulgaria. Both teams are level on points.
As the direct comparison counts in this table constellation, the Eagles are currently ahead of the Italian representatives. In order to reach second place in the standings, the home side must win their match at all costs. And preferably with a two-goal difference
In the domestic league, Rasgrad has been the measure of all things for years and has won one championship after the next. In the much more competitive Serie A, the hosts are once again fighting for a place in international competition and are among the favourites to win the Europa League.
An elimination of the Giallorossi would be a big surprise. In the match AS Roma vs Ludogorez odds of 1.34 are paid for bets on the Italians.
AS Roma – Statistics & current form
Through sixth place in the last season, the Italians qualified for the Europa League. The Giallorossi had to let the competition from Milan go and also city rivals Lazio went through before the Wolves. This season, the hosts have come to compete in the battle for a Champions League spot and the Yellow-Red are playing a good role in Serie A.
After twelve matchdays, the home side have eight wins to their name. With a total of 25 points, the Wolves are in fourth place in the standings. Even if contact with the leaders from Naples has been lost somewhat, it is at least very close behind them. The gap between second place and the eighth-placed team from Udinese is just five points.
Rome must beat Rasgrad
In the Europa League, on the other hand, the Romans had a hard time getting going. In the five games they have played, head coach Jose Mourinho’s team has already suffered two 2-1 defeats against Sevilla and their upcoming opponents from Rasgrad.
Since the direct comparison counts for advancement in the event of a points tie, the hosts are under pressure to win in order to jump past the Bulgarians into second place. But the bookmakers are very optimistic and offer odds of 1.34 on the Wolves to win the match between AS Roma and Ludogorez Razgrad.
Roma are relying on a stable defence
In the league, the Giallorossi shine with their stable defence. Roma have only conceded eleven goals. They have conceded six in the Europa League so far. The offensive certainly still has a lot of room for improvement. Sixteen goals scored mean only a midfield position in this balance. Paulo Dyballa is their best scorer with five goals. However, just like Wijnaldum, Darboe and Spinazzola, he will be missing on Thursday due to injury.
The form curve of the Romans has been showing a steady upward trend in recent weeks. Of the last six competitive matches, only the game against leaders SSC Napoli was lost 0:1. The dress rehearsal on Monday evening in Verona was solved confidently and with 3:1 all three points were taken.
Predicted line-up of AS Roma:
Patricio – Mancini, Smalling, Roger Ibanez – Cristante, Pellegrini, Camara, Zalewski – Zaniolo, Abraham, El Shaarawy
Last matches played by AS Roma:
Serie A
01/11/2022 – Verona 1 – 3 AS Roma
Europa League Grp. C
28/10/2022 – HJK 1 – 2 AS Roma
Serie A
24/10/2022 – AS Roma 0 – 1 SSC Napoli
17/10/2022 – Sampdoria Genoa 0 – 1 AS Roma
Europa League Grp. C
13/10/2022 – Real Betis 1 – 1 AS Roma
Ludogorez Rasgrad – Statistics & current form
The club, which was only founded in 2001, was promoted to the top Bulgarian league in 2011. Since then, it has been the measure of all things in the domestic Parwa Liga. The national title has been won eleven times in a row and this year, too, the battle for the title can only go through the Eagles from northern Bulgaria.
The visitors have won eleven and drawn two of their first fourteen games so far this season. With a total of 35 points, the Green-Whites are currently in second place in the highest Bulgarian division. Only due to the fact that the Orlites have one more match to play, head coach Ante Simundza’s team is two points behind ZSKA Sofia. At the end of the regular season, the top six teams in the standings will play off for the championship.
Rasgrad with a top goal difference
Both the offensive and defensive teams have excellent records. The opposing keeper has already been overcome forty times. The absolute top value in the Parwa Liga. The best scorers in their ranks are Bernard Tekpetey and the Argentine Matias Tissera, who each netted seven times. The defensive line conceded only eight goals. Only Levski Sofia conceded fewer goals.
Ludogorez need a draw to progress
The Bulgarians have won five of their last six games in the competition. Their only defeat came in the Europa League with a 1-0 loss to Betis Sevilla. Nevertheless, the visitors still have every chance of progressing. The Eagles currently occupy second place in Group C. Due to the 2-1 first leg win against the Romans, the Green-Whites are ahead of their upcoming opponents and would defend this position with a draw.
However, the bookmakers see the visitors in the underdog role in their predictions for the match between AS Roma and Ludogorez Rasgrad and offer odds of 9.25 at the top for bets on the Simundza eleven. The Bulgarians have always been represented in the international competitions in recent years – with a wide variety of successes. The biggest success was reaching the round of 16 in 2014.
Predicted line-up of Ludogorez Rasgrad:
Padt – Gropper, Verdon, Witry, Nedyalkov – Piotrowski, Show, Cauly, Jorginho – Tissera, Tekpetey
Last matches played by Ludogorez Rasgrad:
First Professional League
30/10/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 3 – 1 Septemvri Sofia
Europa League Grp. C
27/10/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Rasgrad 0 – 1 Real Betis
First Professional League
23/10/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 1 – 0 PFK Botev Plovdiv
17/10/2022 – PFC Beroe Stara Zagora 0 – 4 PFK Ludogorez Razgrad
Europa League Grp. C
14/10/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Rasgrad 2 – 0 HJK
AS Roma – Ludogorez Rasgrad Direct comparison / H2H record
The first and only comparison between the two teams came in the first leg of this year’s Europa League group stage. Surprisingly, the Bulgarians kept the upper hand and won the match 2:1. All the goals came in the last twenty minutes and after the Romans had equalised, the Eagles scored the decisive goal two minutes before the end. For the second leg of the AS Roma vs Ludogorez Rasgrad clash, the bookmakers see the home side with a clear advantage in their predictions.
AS Roma – Ludogorez Rasgrad Tip
A real final awaits the fans at the Stadio Olimpico on Thursday. The omens in this duel are clear. The hosts must win this match if they want to advance to the next round. For the losers, the consolation is relegation to the Conference League. The home side have come into form on time, losing only one of their last six competitive matches. The next win should come against the Bulgarians and odds of 1.34 are offered for betting on the Wolves in the AS Roma vs Ludogorez match.
The guests know about their good starting position. A draw is enough for the Eagles to make it into the last 32. From a stable defence, the Green-Whites are always in a position to set small pinpricks with their goal-threatening top players. The Simundza eleven have won five of their last six competitive matches.
Although the Bulgarians should by no means be underestimated, we see the hosts as having a clear advantage. The level of the Bulgarian league is in no way close to that of the Serie A, so the series of the Eagles should be put into perspective.
The visitors will try to keep the 0:0 for a long time from a secure defence. Our recommendation for the match AS Roma vs. Ludogorez Rasgrad is therefore a win for the Wolves with less than 4.5 goals scored.
As two strong defensive lines meet, in the match AS Roma vs Ludogorez Rasgrad, at betting odds of 2.40, we will play the slightly riskier tip on a match with less than 2.5 goals with a small stake.
