Mourinho vs. Xabi Alonso – Coach foxes among themselves

Italian club soccer is enjoying a real revival this season. The Champions League semifinals feature two Serie A clubs, as do the UEFA Europa League preliminary round. Then there is Fiorentina, who are considered to have a realistic chance of winning the Europa Conference League title.

While no less than five Italian teams will be playing at international level this week, the Werkself from the Rhineland will be the only Bundesliga team to fly the black, red and gold flag.

Coach Xabi Alonso’s team now faces a crunch task, but is by no means considered a glaring underdog ahead of the first leg on Thursday evening. Instead, almost identical odds are currently being offered between AS Roma and Leverkusen for the bet on who will advance to the final. So everything seems to be open!

What speaks for the home side is in any case the experience and cleverness at European level, which clearly bears the signature of Jose Mourinho and which already led the Giallorossi to the trophy in the Conference League last year.

With regard to a veritable AS Roma vs. Leverkusen forecast, however, it must also be taken into account that the host will be missing several players and the guests from the Rhine, despite the derby defeat at the weekend, go into these highlight matches in the second most important European club competition with plenty of momentum as well as self-confidence.

AS Roma – Statistics & current form

With one and a half legs, Roma was actually already out of the Europa League in the quarterfinals. After a 0:1 defeat in the first leg at Feyenoord Rotterdam, it was 1-1 in the second leg shortly before the end of regulation time, before the Argentine world champion Paulo Dybala marked the 2-1 goal with a fabulous individual performance and sent the match into extra time. There, the capitals finally followed up with two more goals to punch their ticket to this semifinal after all.

Looking at the recent results in the domestic league, one could almost come to the conclusion that the focus is rather on the international business this season anyway. After only two points from the past four Serie A matches, the Giallorossi have dropped to seventh place in the standings. Accordingly, should AS Roma fail to win the Europa League, the Champions League group stage will likely remain a pipe dream in 2023/24.

The defense is outstandingly stable in the Europa League

In addition, the recent dip in form is also due to the strained personnel situation. For example, with Kumbulla out through injury and currently not much to suggest that defender Chris Smalling will make his comeback, Jose Mourinho may have to move the skilled midfielder Cristante to the back of his back three.

Despite this measure, we have no doubts that the defense of the reigning Conference League winners will leave a very stable impression in this semifinal first leg. The numbers in the competition so far also speak for this. In fact, in six knockout games, only three meager goals were conceded, and keeper Rui Patricio even kept his clean sheet in three of the six cases, including in two of the three home games against good opponents like RB Salzburg or Real Sociedad.

For this reason, among others, we see appealing value in the odds on the double chance 1X in the first leg at the Stadio Olimpico between AS Roma and Leverkusen in conjunction with a maximum of three goals in the course of the match. The fact that the Romans have won eight of their last nine knockout home games, as well as the last four matches at home in the Europa League, also underlines our assessment. The combination with the Under 3.5 should also make sense, as eleven of Roma’s twelve matches in the EL so far have seen a maximum of three goals after regular time.

Last matches played by AS Roma:

Serie A

• 06/05/2023 – AS Roma 0 – 2 Inter Milan
• 04/05/2023 – Monza 1 – 1 AS Roma
• 29/04/2023 – AS Roma 1 – 1 AC Milan
• 25/04/2023 – Atalanta Bergamo 3 – 1 AS Roma

Europa League Final Stage

• 21/04/2023 – AS Roma 4 – 1 Fey. Rotterdam

Leverkusen – statistics & current form

Very much like Bayer Leverkusen to slip into the same role as Eintracht Frankfurt did last season. The Hessians, too, not only fought their way to the final as the sole entertainers, but also sensationally lifted the Europa League trophy. The fact that the Werkself can also be expected to reach the final is impressively underlined by their performances on the international stage so far.

After the Champions League group stage did not go according to plan, Leverkusen were relegated to the second most important club competition at European level, where they were able to convince all along the line, especially away from home. The Rhinelanders celebrated victories at AS Monaco, Ferencvaros Budapest and Royale Union SG in Belgium, scoring a total of nine goals in the process.

Leverkusen would be satisfied with a draw

But because now awaits an opponent who will take a very different approach and probably focus on the defensive, we believe that a maximum of two goals will fall and between AS Roma and Leverkusen the odds on the under 2.5 could be a profitable betting option. After all, in three of the past four matches in the Europa League, such a forecast would have been the correct one, by the way.

With a view to the chances of Florian Wirtz and Co. we are, however, a little skeptical. On the one hand, this is due to the fact that last Friday the previously 14-match unbeaten streak ended with the derby defeat against 1. FC Köln. On the other hand, however, it is also due to the club’s mixed record against Italian clubs. In addition to five wins and just as many draws, there have already been 13 defeats against Serie A clubs. In eleven international guest appearances in Italy, only one triumph was achieved.

It should also be taken into account that tactician Xabi Alonso will surely tell his team that even a draw at the Stadio Olimpico would be a good result and catapult the Werkself into a good starting position. Therefore, the Rhinelanders will not start with the last consequence and incalculable risk, so that sometimes the AS Rome vs. Leverkusen prediction on the X after 90 minutes in the first leg also makes sense.

Last matches of Leverkusen:

Bundesliga

• 06/05/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 1 – 2 1. FC Cologne
• 29/04/2023 – Union Berlin 0 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
• 23/04/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 0 RB Leipzig

Europa League Final Stage

• 21/04/2023 – Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 1 – 4 Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga

• 17/04/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 0 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen

AS Roma – Leverkusen Direct comparison / H2H balance

Four meetings have been recorded so far between AS Roma and Leverkusen. The head-to-head is balanced. Both teams have won once each, and there have also been two draws.

Incidentally, all four of the head-to-head meetings took place in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League – most recently in 2015/16, when the Italians won 3:2 at home after the first leg ended 4:4 at the BayArena. The spectators will definitely not get to see that many goals next Thursday.

AS Roma – Leverkusen tip

Jose Mourinho vs Xabi Alonso. The semi-final in the UEFA Europa League promises plenty of excitement, tactical finesse and explosiveness. The fact that, according to the AS Roma vs. Leverkusen betting odds, no clear favorite for advancement can be named, increases the excitement and anticipation even more.

In front of a home crowd, however, we reckon that the Romans have the slightly better chances. On the one hand, this is due to their good home record in this competition, where the Giallorossi have now gone nine games in a row without defeat. On the other hand, it is also due to the impressive defensive strength that is almost ingrained in the DNA under coach Mourinho. Also on Thursday we expect few goals in the course of the game.