Will the Werkself lay the foundations for the final in the eternal city?

Roma and Bayer Leverkusen already faced each other in the semi-finals of the UEFA Europa League last season. Back then, the Bundesliga side enjoyed home advantage in the first leg, which ended 0-0. A week later, a narrow 1:0 home win in the second leg was enough for the Italians to book their place in the final. Since then, however, much has changed for both teams. The Giallorossi are no longer coached by Jose Mourinho, but by Daniele de Rossi, and the Werkself were crowned German champions for the first time just over two weeks ago.

Because the Rhinelanders have not lost a single match in the entire 2023/24 season and are now unbeaten in 46 competitive matches, they are considered to have a very good chance of reaching the final this time. If we take a look at the odds of the few bookmakers that allow you to bet tax-free ahead of the first leg between AS Roma and Leverkusen at the Stadio Olimpico on Thursday evening from 21:00, it becomes clear that the providers already believe the charges of successful coach Xabi Alonso will win the first leg in the eternal city

How complicated the task really is for the current Bundesliga leaders is underlined, among other things, by Roma’s remarkable home record in the Europa League, their recent performances on the international stage and the generally good record that GDR coach Daniele de Rossi has had since taking up his post.

If you still believe that Florian Wirtz and Co. will win, you can pick up a maximum price of 2.15 at Interwetten for a corresponding tip ahead of the AS Roma vs.

AS Roma – Statistics & current form

Daniele de Rossi has been the new coach at AS Roma since mid-January. Initially, the successor to Jose Mourinho was viewed rather critically and the former world-class midfielder was sometimes denied the ability to coach at this level. A good three months later, the former enfant terrible with legendary status in the Italian capital has long since silenced all his critics.

The Romans have won 13 of their 20 competitive matches under the former international. There have also been four draws and just three defeats. In the league, the Giallorossi are in a thrilling battle for the Champions League places; in the Europa League, they have reached the semi-finals, similar to the previous season. Incidentally, this is the fourth time in a row that the club has reached a European final round. In 2022/23, the final against Sevilla was lost on penalties, and Roma will be looking to take the final step towards winning the title this season

Roma only knows about EL home defeats from hearsay

First, however, the hottest, most consistent and, for many, perhaps even the best soccer team in Europe must be brought to its knees. For the first leg between AS Roma and Leverkusen on Thursday evening to pay off, a prediction of a good result in favor of the home side will require just as concentrated and passionate a performance as in the competition so far. After a satisfactory first half of the season with 13 points from six matches, three high-caliber teams – Feyenoord, Brighton and AC Milan – were eliminated in succession. Above all, the two victories in the quarter-finals against their league rivals from Lombardy should have been warning enough for Bayer 04.

On a more positive note, the Romans have lost just one of their last 25 Europa League home games (19-5-1). They have even won ten of their last eleven home games in the second most important club competition at UEFA level. Only Villarreal, Valencia and Benfica Lisbon have won more home games in the Europa League than AS Roma.

Whether they will now also manage a win against the Bundesliga club must nevertheless be critically questioned, as the immense pressure has meant that the Red & Yellows have recently suffered the odd slip-up. They have only won two of their last five matches in Serie A. At the weekend, they drew 2:2 in Naples. In addition, the involvement of goalscorer Romelu Lukaku is still up in the air. The Belgian has already scored seven goals in nine EL games against German teams. Although Roma can still call on the in-form Paulo Dybala in attack, we expect a rather defensive-minded home team that will have great respect for their opponents and will therefore initially focus on securing goals.

Predicted line-up for AS Roma:

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

Leverkusen are currently going through their most difficult phase of the season. The Rhinelanders have already failed to win three competitive matches in a row. Nevertheless, the Bayer managers are as far away from gloom, disillusionment or dissatisfaction as FC Bayern are from signing Wirtz in the summer of 2024. Coach Xabi Alonso’s team have not lost any of their 46 competitive matches this season. The Bundesliga championship is already secure, the chances of winning the DFB Cup against second-division Kaiserslautern are also excellent and the Werkself are even aiming for the treble on the European stage.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have eight wins and two draws in the current Europa League season. Chelsea, Villarreal and Eintracht Frankfurt are the only three teams in history to have reached the final without defeat. Incidentally, all three clubs went on to lift the trophy. In view of this, anyone wishing to bet on a far from unrealistic Europa League triumph for the German champions can only get odds in the region of 1.77 in the Bet365 app ahead of the first leg between AS Roma and Leverkusen.

Will Leverkusen score late goals again in Rome?

For the sake of completeness, however, it must be mentioned that Leverkusen did not necessarily produce the dominance in terms of results in the round of 16 and the quarter-finals that one might have expected. The Bundesliga side had already started as the clear favorites against Qarabag Agdam and West Ham United. However, it always took a lot of patience and late goals to secure their progress. It’s quite possible that the Werkself will have to work hard again on Thursday evening and practice perseverance in order to throw a good Roma defense off its stride.

With this in mind, we are not averse to placing a combined bet between AS Roma and Leverkusen that a maximum of three goals will be scored during the match, but that Xabi Alonso’s side will not leave the pitch as losers. Alternatively, there are interesting odds of under 2.5. Meanwhile, the particularly risk-averse bettors might even consider an away win without conceding a goal. Bet365 is offering 3.50 for this.

Predicted Leverkusen line-up:

AS Roma – Leverkusen head-to-head comparison / H2H result

We have already discussed the two matches from last year’s Europa League semi-final in the introduction. In total, the clubs with whom DFB sporting director Rudi Völler is particularly close have met in six competitive matches. Roma have the edge with two wins and one defeat. Three encounters ended in draws. Incidentally, Leverkusen’s only victory dates back to the 2004/05 Champions League season, after which the Rhinelanders had five consecutive winless matches against the Italian capital club

AS Roma – Leverkusen betting tip

Bayer 04 Leverkusen is a phenomenon. There have never been 46 unbeaten competitive matches in the top European leagues before. The number of last-minute goals scored by the Werkself is also top of the international league. Against Dortmund, they equalized 1:1 at the last second and last weekend, Xabi Alonso’s side saved their impressive run with a last-gasp goal to make it 2:2 against VfB Stuttgart. The German champions’ self-confidence could hardly be more pronounced. This is one of the reasons why the Rhinelanders are also considered favorites in the 2023/24 Europa League semi-final against Roma.

On the “to qualify” market, betting odds of no more than 1.25 are offered on the Bundesliga club reaching the final between AS Roma and Leverkusen. However, we do not believe that the starting position ahead of this match is that clear-cut. Bayer have recently had to take a deep breath after winning the championship, while Roma have taken three top teams out of the competition with Feyenoord, Brighton and AC Milan. What’s more, it’s always difficult to play against an Italian team, especially away from home

We have therefore decided against the Leverkusen away win in our main bet and instead try it between AS Roma and Leverkusen with the X2 & Under 3.5 bet, which covers many eventualities and additionally minimizes the risk. Interwetten offers 1.75 for this. The Under 2.5 after 90 minutes also plays a major role in our considerations.