North London derby as a duel for the top of the table
After the relegation of the English national team from the Nations League A, the focus in the motherland of football is once again on the domestic championship. Matchday eight is on the agenda this weekend and it opens early on Saturday afternoon with an absolute treat. It’s hard to get more topsy-turvy than that in the North London derby between Arsenal and Tottenham. The Gunners are top of the table, with Tottenham a point behind in third place.
Arsenal have won six of their seven games so far this season and have suffered one defeat. The Conte eleven has not yet experienced the feeling of defeat this season, with Spurs still unbeaten with five wins and two draws. Nevertheless, the visitors are considered relatively clear underdogs in Saturday’s derby. Betting odds of just over 2.00 are on offer for an Arsenal home win over Tottenham, while a Spurs win will be rewarded with 3.5 times the stake in some cases.
One reason for this assessment is certainly the direct comparison, especially in front of the home crowd Arsenal have a clearly positive record against their arch-rivals in recent years. For the first time since 2012/13, Arsenal could win three duels in a row against Tottenham. The match kicks off at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday at 13:30.
Arsenal – Statistics & current form
In the season finale Arsenal already had a hand in a return to the top flight, but in the end Arsenal were caught out by their arch-rivals, who can now play in the Champions League. The Arteta eleven will start the next attempt in 2022/23 and so far they are looking back on a stellar start to the season, as the investments are bearing fruit and Arsenal’s play this season is also reminiscent of the successful years under Arsene Wenger.
Spectacle is guaranteed at Arsenal
Neither Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang nor Alexandre Lacazette have lived up to the high expectations of a centre-forward in the past. With City newcomer Gabriel Jesus, Arteta finally has a clear number nine again who is always good for a goal. The Brazilian has already scored four goals this season and also provided three assists. But it is not only thanks to the attacker that goals are guaranteed, but in general a bet on many goals can always be considered at Arsenal. On average, 3.43 goals were scored per game in the first seven games of the season. In all games there were at least two goals, six out of seven times at least three goals were scored.
Another statistic that suggests a lot of goals is that Arsenal have always conceded at least one goal in their last eight home games. Although Aaron Ramsdale has never been able to keep a clean sheet, Arsenal have won all of their last six home games. In PL history, only Liverpool have recorded more consecutive home wins with at least one goal conceded (eight wins between August and December 2019). Between Arsenal and Tottenham, betting odds of up to 3.75 are currently on offer for Arsenal and both teams to score.
In terms of personnel, there is a question mark behind Zinchenko and Thomas Partey, who are both suffering from ailments. Elneny and Reiss Nelson are two other absentees who are not options. But in the meantime, Arsenal have a squad that can compensate well for these absentees.
Predicted Arsenal line-up:
Ramsdale – Tierney, Gabriel Magalhaes, Saliba, White – Xhaka, Sambi Lokonga – Martinelli, Vieira, Saka – Gabriel Jesus
Last matches played by Arsenal:
Premier League
18/09/2022 – Brentford 0 – 3 Arsenal FC
Europa League Grp. A
08/09/2022 – FC Zürich 1 – 2 FC Arsenal
Premier League
04/09/2022 – Manchester United 3 – 1 FC Arsenal
01/09/2022 – Arsenal FC 2 – 1 Aston Villa
27/08/2022 – Arsenal FC 2 – 1 Fulham
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
Even more spendthrift than Arsenal, Tottenham have been a lot more spendthrift this transfer summer and the club’s management has tried everything to fulfil the wishes of successful coach Antonio Conte. As a result, the expectation level has once again risen significantly with new arrivals such as those of Richarlison. So far, the Italian head coach has delivered and has not conceded a defeat in the domestic championship. Only in the 2016/17 PL season did Tottenham also start with eight games without defeat.
The offence in dazzling form
Tottenham have averaged even more goals than Arsenal games this season. There have been 3.57 goals per game so far, which is mainly due to the very strong attacking department. Tottenham have scored 18 times so far, while only Manchester City have scored 23 goals. South Korean Heung-Min Son in particular shone before the international break, scoring a hat-trick as a wild card in a 6-2 win over Leicester City despite playing just 31 minutes.
He also has good experience at Arsenal, having failed to score in the first nine derbies, but has recently collected six in five games (four goals, two assists). Harry Kane, who scored no fewer than 13 times against the Gunners, has an even better statistic. No other player in the Premier League has scored more times against Arsenal. So a bet on a goal between the two players is certainly worth considering. Between Arsenal and Tottenham, a prediction on a Kane goal is offered at 2.50, with a Son goal tempting at 3.20.
Predicted Tottenham line-up:
Lloris – Sanchez, Dier, Lenglet – Sessegnon, Höjbjerg, Bentancur, Perisic – Son, Richarlison – Kane
Last matches played by Tottenham:
Premier League
17/09/2022 – Tottenham 6 – 2 Leicester
Champions League Grp. D
13/09/2022 – Sporting CP 2 – 0 Tottenham
08/09/2022 – Tottenham 2 – 0 Marseille
Premier League
03/09/2022 – Tottenham 2 – 1 Fulham
01/09/2022 – West Ham 1 – 1 Tottenham
Arsenal – Tottenham Direct Comparison / H2H Record
The rivalry between the two teams is enormous and accordingly the direct duels in the domestic championship are explosive. In recent years, Tottenham have always finished ahead of Arsenal in the final standings, yet the direct comparison speaks a clear language in favour of the Gunners. Arteta’s side have won their last two league games, and if they do so on Saturday, Arsenal will have won three league games in a row against Spurs for the first time in almost ten years (the last time was between February 2012 and September 2013).
The chances of this happening are quite good, as Arsenal have lost only one of their last 29 league home games against Tottenham (17 wins, 11 draws) and are unbeaten in 11 games. Given these statistics, between Arsenal and Tottenham, the low odds on betting on the home win are quite understandable.
Arsenal – Tottenham Tip
The direct comparison suggests a bet on the Gunners. Another realistic possibility between Arsenal and Tottenham is predicting goals from both teams. Arsenal have not scored nil in eight league home games, plus Tottenham have scored at least once in their last ten derbies against the Gunners. Moreover, with 17 goals themselves, Arsenal have a potent attack at their disposal that is always up for a goal.
Although there are enough arguments for betting on the home side, there seems to be no value in the odds on offer. The Spurs themselves are in excellent form and an offence with Kane, Richarlison and Son can be dangerous for any defence. Therefore, our tip for the derby between Arsenal and Tottenham is also an over bet. Not only the over 2.5 is interesting, but a spectacular derby with four goals does not seem unlikely. Five units are chosen as stake for this bet
