Will the Gunners struggle to reach the semi-finals?
Eight teams are still in contention for the English League Cup this season. The quarter-finals are on the agenda immediately before Christmas. In addition to seven Premier League clubs, there will also be a third division team in the last eight. We are talking about the traditional club from Sunderland, who will be playing Arsenal FC in the capital on Tuesday evening and will of course be considered as the underdogs
Ahead of the Arsenal vs Sunderland clash, maximum odds of 1.18 are being offered on the favourites to win after regulation time. So far, the Black Cats have benefited from the luck of the draw in particular, as they have not yet had to knock out a first division team on their way to the quarter-finals. But that is about to change, especially as the Gunners have been in good form of late and are looking to put the years of mediocrity behind them once and for all.
Nevertheless, when making a prediction between Arsenal and Sunderland, it must of course be taken into account that the home side will in all likelihood start the rotation machine. With a tight end-of-year schedule in mind, many of Mikel Arteta’s key players are likely to be given a rest, so the encounter could potentially be more exciting and competitive than many expect.
Arsenal – Statistics & current form
Arsenal Football Club have four competitive games left to play up to and including New Year. Three of them in the Premier League, one in the EFL Cup quarter-finals, where the Cannoniers have set their sights on a lot this match year. The Londoners have not won the less important of the two English cup competitions since 1993. And that despite having reached the final in 2007, 2011 and for the last time in 2018.
Admittedly, it has to be said that in 2021/22, too, the top priority is to perform well in the league. Coach Mikel Arteta’s team is currently doing surprisingly well in the league. The last three games have all been victorious, with a 4-1 statement win at Leeds United at the weekend and a 2-0 home win against city rivals West Ham before that.
Will Leno swallow first league cup goal this season?
Thanks to these good results, the capital club have moved up to fourth in the standings and have already built up a five-point lead over sixth position, although their pursuers all have catch-up games in hand.
Nevertheless, the Gunners will not jeopardise their good Premier League season for an EFL Cup quarter-final. Consequently, we expect at most an improved B eleven that the Spanish coach will send out on the pitch on Tuesday evening in the home match against third division side Sunderland.
Even though Arsenal have not conceded a single goal in three rounds of the competition so far, we can well imagine that Bernd Leno, who is now only the number 2 behind Aaron Ramsdale in London, will have to make at least one save against the Black Cats. The defence is not rehearsed, the workload in the last few weeks has been quite high and the fact that the own attack will probably score two or more goals increases the likelihood that the visitors will also score at least one goal.
Predicted Arsenal line-up:
Leno; Soares, Holding, Chambers, Tavares; Maitland-Niles, Elneny; Pepe, Smith Rowe, Nketiah; Lacazette
Last matches played by Arsenal:
Premier League
12/18 2021 – Leeds 1 – 4 Arsenal London
12/15 2021 – Arsenal London 2 – 0 West Ham
12/11 2021 – Arsenal London 3 – 0 Southampton
12/06 2021 – Everton 2 – 1 Arsenal London
12/02 2021 – Manchester United 3 – 2 Arsenal London
Sunderland – Statistics & current form
For Sunderland, Tuesday night’s quarter-final in the EFL Cup is a huge deal. The finalists in that 2014 competition are looking forward to finally making an appearance on England’s big football stage. Instead of having to play week in week out in League One against clubs of little repute such as Accrington Stanley or Fleetwood Town, coach Lee Johnson’s men can’t wait to get a leg up on former league rivals Arsenal.
With the Black Cats’ next league game not until 27 December, the 40-year-old manager is likely to field his best line-up at the club. This, in turn, is a clear indication that the odds on a home win between Arsenal and Sunderland are far too low. A well-rehearsed third division side that is also in third place, has plenty of confidence and sees the encounter as a highlight is definitely capable of standing up to a young B/C side from a Premier League club.
Sunderland already with four away wins in current competition
The club from the north-east of England has already eliminated two second division teams, Queens Park Rangers and Blackpool, in the competition so far. Also interesting: All four victories in the previous rounds came away from home. Only against QPR did they score less than two goals of their own.
Incidentally, this continues an exciting trend from the English League One, because in 22 league games, Johnson’s eleven have only failed to score four times, the last time at the beginning of November! The Black Cats have the third best attack in the third division and have scored at least one goal in eight of their last nine matches. So we’re not going too far out on a limb when we predict that both teams will score in 90 minutes on Tuesday night between Arsenal and Sunderland.
Predicted Sunderland line-up:
Hoffmann; Wright, Flanagan, Doyle; Hume, Neil, Pritchard, Embleton, Gooch; Broadhead, Stewart
Last matches played by Sunderland:
League One
12/18 2021 – Ipswich 1 – 1 Sunderland
12/11 2021 – Sunderland 2 – 1 Plymouth
12/07 2021 – Sunderland 5 – 0 Morecambe
12/04 2021 – Sunderland 1 – 1 Oxford
EFL Trophy Final Stage
12/01 2021 – Sunderland 0 – 1 Oldham
Arsenal – Sunderland Direct Comparison / H2H Record
152 competitive matches have already been played between the two clubs. 140 of them in the highest division of the country, also the most recent two direct duels dates back to the last joint Premier League season 2016/17, when the Gunners won in the first and second leg.
However, if we look at the cup history of these teams, things are much closer. While the Londoners have won six times in eleven attempts, the Black Cats also have four victories. In the League Cup, Arsenal have reached the next round on two out of three occasions.
Arsenal – Sunderland Tip
On paper, the EFL Cup quarter-final Arsenal v Sunderland is certainly the one with the clearest of omens. The fourth-placed team in the Premier League receives the third-placed team in League One, England’s third-highest division. Moreover, the Gunners still enjoy home advantage and have celebrated three commanding victories in the competition so far.
Nevertheless, we have to take a more differentiated view of the starting position. After all, this knockout game comes at an inopportune time for Arteta’s team, as they are still required to play three more times in the league until 01.01.2022. The Spanish coach therefore has little choice but to give some of his key players a break. Accordingly, a B or C eleven from the capital club is expected on the pitch.
Apart from that, the Black Cats should not be underestimated. They have already eliminated two second division teams in QPR and Blackpool. In addition, the Johnson eleven scored at least once in almost all competitive matches this season. In addition, there is the mental aspect that this game just before Christmas is a real highlight for the Sunderland professionals, which they will approach with full band and utmost seriousness.
All in all, we believe that the betting odds on both teams scoring between Arsenal and Sunderland offer promising value.
