Will Arsenal extend their lead over Newcastle?

On matchday 19 – the official last matchday of the first leg in the English Premier League – a top match is on the agenda, which hardly anyone had in mind before the start of the season. The league leaders and the third-placed team will face each other at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday evening at 20:45, with Arsenal hosting Newcastle. A bet on the home side is rewarded with odds of around 1.80, while a win for the newly rich visitors from the north of the country is worth more than four times that amount.

Arsenal fans have had to cope with countless setbacks in recent years, so the last few weeks and months have been a balm on the wounds. They are already seven points ahead of the current title holders Manchester City. A win against the surprisingly strong Magpies from Newcastle could significantly increase the pressure on Guardiola’s eleven. The Citizens face a tough away game at Chelsea on Thursday night.

Before looking to the competition, however, they must do their own homework. The first competitive match of 2023 will be a tough task, as Newcastle have only lost once so far this season. However, a number of draws (seven in all) have left the Howe side nine points behind the Gunners.

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

The road to a possible title win is still a marathon, although the end of the first leg is on the agenda due to postponements, it is only the 17th league game in the current season. However, the current starting position is promising in any case and it is completely natural that the question of the championship arises in this situation. After Manchester City’s 1-1 draw with Everton, Arteta’s team did not show any weakness at Brighton & Hove Albion with a 4-2 victory. It was the Gunners’ 14th win in their 16th league game.

White as a sheet at Emirates Stadium

The foundation for the outstanding season so far was laid by the Arteta eleven, especially in the home games. The current leaders of the English league have not yet lost a point at home. After seven games, they have a maximum of 21 points. Three times the Gunners have won by a one-goal margin, three times by two goals and in the match against promoted Nottingham Forest, Arsenal even celebrated a 5:0 smash-and-grab victory.

Given the home strength of Arsenal and Newcastle, the odds for the prediction of the next full success at home are extremely interesting. It would be a milestone for Arsenal, as never before in Premier League history have the Gunners had eight wins after eight home games. The team from the capital has now won ten matches in a season.

The absence of top striker Gabriel Jesus can certainly not be adequately replaced, but the loss can still be compensated for, because the team is clearly the star of the Arteta eleven this year. This is also illustrated by the fact that the burden of scoring goals is spread over many shoulders. Four players have between five and seven goals to their credit. The Jesus spot will once again be taken by Eddie Nketiah, who has scored eleven goals in his last eleven starting appearances at the Emirates Stadium. He also got on the scoresheet in the 4-2 win over the Seagulls from Brighton.

Predicted Arsenal line-up:
Ramsdale – Zinchenko, Magalhaes, Saliba, White – Partey – Martinelli, Odegaard, Xhaka, Saka – Nketiah

Last matches played by Arsenal:

Premier League
01/01/2023 – Brighton 2 – 4 FC Arsenal

27/12/2022 – Arsenal FC 3 – 1 West Ham

Club friendlies
18/12/2022 – Arsenal FC 0 – 2 Juventus FC

13/12/2022 – Arsenal FC (4)2 – 1(3) AC Milan

08/12/2022 – Arsenal FC 3 – 0 Lyon

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

The arrival of investors from Saudi Arabia sparked much criticism. Although money no longer plays a role at the Magpies, the sporting management has used it wisely in recent months. They succeeded in setting the right accents and the squad was not strengthened with well-known (old) stars, but a clear concept was recognisable. Eddie Howe, one of England’s most talented young coaches, took over the reins and after just 13 months in office has collected an outstanding 1.83 points on average. The threat of relegation was quickly averted last year and now the dream of the top division is by no means pure utopia.

Only one defeat this season for the Magpies

The Howe eleven’s convincing performances are made even more surprising by the fact that the 2022 summer transfer kingpin has just three PL games under his belt. Former Dortmund player Alexander Isak suffered an injury after a brilliant debut (two goals in three games) and will still not be available at the beginning of the year. In his absence, veteran Callum Wilson (six goals) and attacking midfielder Miguel Almiron (nine goals) have shone.

34 points after 17 competitive games is, of course, the best start to a season in ages. Last year, the Magpies had collected a meagre ten points at this stage. Newcastle have been extremely difficult to beat this season, with their only defeat coming in an away game at Liverpool, which they lost 2-1. That defeat came on 31 August, meaning Howe’s side have gone more than four months without defeat in the league.

In the first two league games after the World Cup break, Nick Pope kept his box clean. In the 3-0 win at Leicester City, the attack provided a successful re-start in the league, in the last game of the year they had to settle for a goalless draw. Due to the offensive strength of the Gunners on Tuesday evening between Arsenal and Newcastle, the bet on the over 2.5 or even the bet “both teams score” still seems very realistic/probable. After all, Arsenal have a different quality than the two opponents from the bottom half of the table.

Predicted Newcastle line-up:
Pope – Burn, Botman, Schär, Trippier – Longstaff, Guimaraes, Willock – Joelinton, Wood, Almiron

Last matches played by Newcastle:

Premier League
31/12/2022 – Newcastle 0 – 0 Leeds

26/12/2022 – Leicester 0 – 3 Newcastle

Carabao Cup
21/12/2022 – Newcastle 1 – 0 Bournemouth

Club Friendlies
17/12/2022 – Newcastle 2 – 1 Rayo Vallecano

08/12/2022 – Al Hilal 0 – 5 Newcastle

Arsenal – Newcastle Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

With Newcastle United, a true favourite opponent makes a guest appearance at the Emirates Stadium. A look at the stats underlines a home win prediction between Arsenal and Newcastle, as this has been the case in the Gunners’ last eleven league home games. Only against Stoke City have Arsenal won more times in a row in their long football history (16 wins). However, in the last meeting, this time at St. James Park, the Magpies won 2-0. Newcastle have never had two wins en suite against Arsenal in the 21st century. In fact, should that streak end, Newcastle would win both duels in North London for the first time since the 2001/02 season (2-1 win over Tottenham in October).

Arsenal – Newcastle Tip

Who would have thought it? From a purely tabular point of view, this match even eclipses the duel between Chelsea and Manchester City. The Gunners are currently in first place in the table, and quite rightly so, after the Arteta eleven’s brilliant development in recent months. Although Newcastle are also riding the wave of success, between Arsenal and Newcastle the low odds on the home side winning are fully justified.

The young Gunners team is bursting with enthusiasm for the game and always looking for the way forward. With an ease of days gone by, the team shines and exudes enormous danger. Newcastle have kept a clean sheet twice recently, but expect a high-scoring game on Tuesday. The visitors are also very attractive in their forward play, but the tendency is nevertheless towards a home win. Based on this, we play the betting odds between Arsenal and Newcastle on “Home win & Both teams meet” with a moderate four units as stake.