Who will accompany the Blues to the final?
After two wins over Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea FC are already the first finalists in the 2022 EFL Cup. The Blues will now either be followed by city rivals Arsenal in the final or a Tuchel vs Klopp clash at Wembley at the end of February if LFC hold off the Gunners. In any case, everything is still open after the goalless draw in the first leg.
The record speaks for the Reds, who have lost only three of their last 17 games against the Londoners (nine wins, five draws). Thus, in the run-up to the prestige duel between Arsenal and Liverpool, the odds are in favour of the visitors.
For both teams, whose main focus is on the Premier League, this cup match is definitely somewhat disruptive, with the Gunners at least benefiting from the fact that their league match against Spurs was cancelled on Sunday. As such, Arsenal go into this game more rested and potentially need to rotate less than the Reds.
Still, we don’t expect either team to push themselves beyond the breaking point in this contest. With that in mind, there is a lot to be said for betting on another low-scoring game in Arsenal vs Liverpool.
Arsenal – Statistics & current form
Arsenal have reached the final of the EFL Cup eight times so far, but have only won it twice in total, in 1987 and 1993. Accordingly, the FA Cup record winners should be motivated to punch their ticket to the final in order to improve their record somewhat.
After all, this competition could also represent an easy route for the Gunners into international competition. The Londoners are still on course for the Champions League in the Premier League. Last season, however, they finished eighth in the final table and missed out on qualification for Europe altogether.
Rested after match cancellation
In two ways, it would therefore be pleasing for Arsenal to win the EFL Cup for the first time in 28 years and thus have a safe ticket to European competition up their sleeve.
For that to happen, however, Mikel Arteta’s side will have to build on the first leg, when they managed to hold on for a goalless draw at Anfield Road exactly a week ago despite being shorthanded for 66 minutes. Granit Xhaka, the culprit, is now suspended. However, in view of the fact that the Premier League match at the weekend had to be cancelled at short notice, there will not have to be much rotation.
Can Nketiah extend his goal tally in the EFL Cup?
Accordingly, the Gunners can concentrate fully on their stable defence in their own stadium and have legitimate hopes of a ninth appearance in the final. Eddie Nketiah could also be a factor in Arsenal’s hopes of progressing against Liverpool.
The 22-year-old, who could once again deputise for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who is away at the Africa Cup, has already scored five goals in four appearances on the Gunners’ road to the semi-finals and will most likely start alongside Alexandre Lacazette once again.
Predicted Arsenal line-up:
Ramsdale – Tierney – Magalhaes – White – Soares – Lokonga – Ödegaard – Martinelli – Saka – Nketiah – Lacazette
Last matches played by Arsenal:
Carabao Cup
01/13 2022 – Liverpool FC 0 – 0 Arsenal London
FA Cup
01/09 2022 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 0 Arsenal London
Premier League
01/01 2022 – Arsenal London 1 – 2 Manchester City
12/26 2021 – Norwich 0 – 5 Arsenal London
Carabao Cup
12/21 2021 – Arsenal London 5 – 1 Sunderland
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
Liverpool reached the final of the EFL Cup in their first year in charge under Jürgen Klopp in the 2015/16 season, but dropped the title there on penalties against Manchester City. Since then, the Reds, who are the most successful team in the competition with twelve finals and eight overall victories, have never reached the final again.
Now it could be the first time they have done so again, although the Merseyside kickers did not set out to get this far. In the quarter-finals, a B team packed with youth players triumphed over Leicester City in a penalty shootout win on 22 December 2021.
Will load control be the deciding factor?
Nonetheless, the Reds are now in the semifinals and are just one win away from reaching what is already their 13th final. Accordingly, the time for sparing should now be over. Jürgen Klopp must nevertheless control the strain on his players.
After a senior eleven scored a 3-0 win over Brentford in the Premier League at the weekend, there could therefore now be further rotations. All the more surprising that the Scousers are favoured.
So far 30 goals in eleven Premier League away games
The Reds’ favouritism is justified not only by their strong record against the Gunners, who have won nine of their last 17 competitive matches (five draws, three defeats). The Scousers’ away record is also very consistent overall.
In the Premier League, LFC won six of their eleven games away from home and have already conceded an incredible 30 goals in foreign stadiums. No other team in England’s top division has even come close to scoring as many goals away from home.
Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson – Robertson – van Dijk – Matip – Alexander-Arnold – Milner – Fabinho – Henderson – Minamino – Jota – Firmino
Last matches played by Liverpool:
Premier League
01/16 2022 – Liverpool FC 3 – 0 Brentford
Carabao Cup
01/13 2022 – Liverpool FC 0 – 0 Arsenal London
FA Cup
01/09 2022 – Liverpool FC 4 – 1 Shrewsbury
Premier League
01/02 2022 – Chelsea London 2 – 2 Liverpool FC
12/28 2021 – Leicester 1 – 0 Liverpool FC
Arsenal – Liverpool Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Head to head: 81 – 62 – 92
The two teams have faced each other a total of 235 times so far and LFC clearly lead the head-to-head comparison with 92 wins. Among the last 17 competitive matches against the Gunners alone, there have only been three defeats (nine wins, five draws).
Arsenal – Liverpool tip
When it comes to Arsenal against Liverpool, the prediction goes in favour of the Reds, who have already collected ten more points than the Gunners in league play and won 4-0 against the Londoners in the Premier League on 20 November. However, Arsenal had a game off at the weekend and can therefore afford to send the first eleven into the semi-final rested, while Jürgen Klopp must keep an eye on the strain control.
Accordingly, we expect the visitors from Merseyside to rotate a little more, which could come at the expense of the Reds’ offensive punch. There is a lot to be said for a defensive match that ends as low-scoring as the first leg.
