Next derby win for the league leaders?
For Arsenal Football Club, the 2022/23 European Cup season has been over since last Thursday. Although the Gunners were still considered as joint favourites for the Europa League title ahead of the second leg against Sporting Lisbon, the Londoners lost on penalties in front of their home crowd and can now fully concentrate on league action.
Coach Mikel Arteta’s side are still going strong in the league. They are five points ahead of their closest rivals Manchester City. This cushion could even be extended next weekend, because while the Citizens are challenged in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup, the leaders have a feasible capital derby in front of them. Ahead of the match between Arsenal and Crystal Palace, betting on a home win is only rated at 1.30. Accordingly, the role of the favourites is very clear.
This assessment is admittedly absolutely plausible, after all, the Eagles are not only one of the least fit teams in the Premier League, but also one of the most offensively harmless. Nevertheless, with regard to the Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace prediction, it should not be disregarded that Crystal Palace have recently been very happy to travel the few kilometres towards the Emirates Stadium. Palace have remained unbeaten at Arsenal in the Premier League four times in a row.
Arsenal – Statistics & current form
Arsenal had a surprising bye on the international stage during the week. In the Premier League, however, everything is still going according to plan. Most recently, the Gunners celebrated five wins in a row and thus maintained their position at the top of the table. As already mentioned in the introduction, the lead over Manchester City is still eight points. However, as the remaining schedule, including a visit to the Citizens, is a tough one, Arteta’s team would be well advised to keep the pedal to the metal.
In Arsenal’s home match against Crystal Palace, the prediction of success for the favourites should actually be a mere formality. The Gunners remain the second best home team in the English top flight with ten wins from 13 home games, have scored at least three goals in three of their last five matches in front of their own fans and also have an impressive derby record this season.
Spanish head coach Mikel Arteta’s side have won eight of the previous nine capital duels (one draw) and could even set a new record on Sunday afternoon. In the history of the English top flight, no London club has ever won nine derbies in the same season.
Arsenal’s attack has been convincing in the league of late
In addition, the offensive strength already hinted at also speaks in favour of the front-runners. In a review of the past five league games, Gabriel Martinelli and Co. scored three or more goals in four of them. Good creativity and penetrating power will also be needed at the weekend against a very structured, many-legged and compactly defending Crystal Palace.
In this context, there is certainly also particular pressure on individual protagonists. Leandro Trossard has been a strong provider of assists recently, setting up a total of five goals in his last four PL games. Gabriel Martinelli was the main enforcer. The Brazilian winger not only leads the internal goalscoring list with twelve goals, but has also scored five goals in his last five league games.
If you want to bet on Martinelli crossing the line again on Sunday, you can find exciting odds of 2.75 at the top of the table between Arsenal and Crystal Palace.
Last games played by Arsenal:
Europa League Final Stage
17/03/2023 – Arsenal FC (3)1 – 1(5) Sporting CP
Premier League
12/03/2023 – Fulham 0 – 3 Arsenal FC
Europa League Final Stage
10/03/2023 – Sporting CP 2 – 2 FC Arsenal
Premier League
04/03/2023 – Arsenal FC 3 – 2 Bournemouth
02/03/2023 – Arsenal FC 4 – 0 Everton
Crystal Palace – Statistics & current form
The air is getting thinner for Crystal Palace in the bottom of the table. Although the capital club remains in the supposedly safe twelfth place in the standings, the lead over the relegation zone has recently shrunk to three points. Moreover, the form curve has been pointing in the wrong direction for several weeks. Criticism of head coach Patrick Vieira, who as is well known has a long and successful Arsenal past, has also increased significantly.
In particular, the fact that the Eagles hardly score any goals is being pinned on the French coach. A lack of courage, faltering automatisms and a lack of self-confidence are the result of a stagnant development of the Londoners, who actually have a squad in terms of quality that should be aiming for the upper midfield rather than a relegation battle.
The Eagles’ last win dates back to 31 December 2022
The harmlessness of their forward play, meanwhile, is also very well illustrated by the numbers: Only Wolverhampton and Everton (20 each) have scored less often than Crystal Palace (21). In the last four Premier League games, Crystal Palace did not score a single goal. In fact, in seven of their last eleven matches at league level, they have scored zero.
Since the Eagles have only managed a clean sheet in one of the last 22 direct duels against Arsenal, the odds on a surprise coup for the underdogs between Arsenal and Crystal Palace are virtually impossible to play.
Particularly because in the numerous London derbies this season, not much has gone right for the twelfth-placed team in the table. The Vieira team has only won one of these city duels. No other club in the capital has scored fewer goals in these derbies or has a worse goal difference than the Eagles, who, incidentally, have not won a single match in the Premier League in the entire 2023 football year. The winless streak has now lasted eleven matches.
Last matches played by Crystal Palace:
Premier League
16/03/2023 – Brighton 1 – 0 Crystal Palace
12/03/2023 – Crystal Palace 0 – 1 Manchester City
04/03/2023 – Aston Villa 1 – 0 Crystal Palace
26/02/2023 – Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Liverpool FC
18/02/2023 – Brentford 1 – 1 Crystal Palace
Arsenal – Crystal Palace Direct Comparison / H2H Record
45 Matches played so far in the best football league in England. The direct comparison is clearly in favour of the Gunners, who left the pitch as winners in 26 matches. 14 draws and only five defeats round off the head-to-head. However, the Eagles have not lost any of their last four matches at the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal FC’s last home win against Crystal Palace dates back to 2018.
Arsenal – Crystal Palace Tip
Arsenal Football Club can take the next important step towards the Premier League championship on Sunday afternoon. There is little doubt of a home win against Crystal Palace, although it remains to be seen how the Gunners have coped with last Thursday’s Europa League exit.
Regardless of that, coach Mikel Arteta’s side will naturally go into the home game against their city rivals as heavy favourites. Between Arsenal and Crystal Palace, the betting odds imply a win probability in favour of the hosts of a whopping 76%. This lopsided assessment is largely linked to the home strength of the leaders. As well as the visitors’ winless streak, which now spans eleven PL matches and lasts the entire 2023 football year.
But since Vieira’s side are usually defensively sound and have regularly outperformed at the Emirates Stadium in the recent past, we will not place a bet on a shock victory and instead opt for a home win between Arsenal and Crystal Palace in conjunction with the Under 3.5.
