Will Mexico knock Argentina out of the World Cup?
The Argentines have been involved in the biggest surprise so far at this World Cup finals in Qatar. Not in a positive sense, though. Lionel Messi and Co. lost their opening match despite leading 1-0 at half-time against the glaring underdogs from Saudi Arabia and now have their backs to the wall ahead of the second matchday in Group C. Strictly speaking, betting on the South Americans’ success between Argentina and Mexico will have to pay off if they are to get back into the tournament.
The task against the North Americans is by no means a foregone conclusion, however, as coach Gerardo Martino’s team proved against Poland that they can be very uncomfortable opponents. Especially in defence.
Because the Albiceleste did not make a good impression at all, found hardly any offensive solutions against an opponent who is clearly weaker in terms of quality, and because there is also the aspect of pressure, the prediction on the World Cup co-favourites in the Argentina vs. Mexico clash must be viewed with caution.
In view of the fact that El Tri – similar to the opening match against Poland – could live with a point, we expect a very defensive Mexican team that will try to keep the score as close to zero as possible and then create more and more chances against the riskier South Americans as the game progresses. We do not rule out a surprise in the run-up to this match. Especially not if the Scaloni eleven once again falls short of their own expectations.
Argentina – Statistics & current form
The Argentinian national football team has disappointed all along the line in its opening match. Even an early penalty goal by Lionel Messi and three whistled offside goals did not put the South Americans on the winning track. In the end, the World Cup co-favourites lost 2-1 to Saudi Arabia, disgraced themselves to the bone against one of the biggest underdogs and are now in last place in Group C with their backs to the wall.
They will need to improve their performance on Saturday if they are not to be knocked out early. For the first time in their own World Cup history, the Albiceleste could lose their first two group games. The defeat against the Saudis was also the fourth defeat in the last six World Cup matches. Apart from that, a previous 13-match winning streak against non-European opponents came to an end.
Argentina need to make a lot of adjustments
There are not many encouraging signs from Tuesday’s performance. The offensive play seemed to lack ideas and power. The Argentinian players were offside ten times, more than in the entire 2018 World Cup tournament (six times). It is conceivable that the sky-blue-and-white team will also find it difficult to create goal-scoring opportunities against defensively minded Mexicans, which is why bets on sub-par goals are coming into focus.
At the back, however, Otamendi and Co. also revealed major deficits, especially in terms of speed. We could therefore also imagine betting on the double chance X2 between Argentina and Mexico.
Of course, Lionel Messi, who has now scored at least once in his last five international matches for Argentina, is and remains the main hope. Only between autumn 2011 and 2012 was the multiple world footballer even successful in six matches in a row for his country. Should the Paris St. Germain star also score at the weekend, exciting odds of 2.05 are offered at the top. Changes are to be expected in terms of personnel, although coach Lionel Scaloni will not replace the entire team, but rather make selective changes.
Predicted line-up of Argentina:
E. Martínet – Tagliafico, Otamendi, Romero, Molina – Gomez, Paul, Paredes, di Maria – Messi, L. Martinez
Last matches played by Argentina:
World Cup Group C
22/11/2022 – Argentina 1 – 2 Saudi Arabia
Friendly matches
16/11/2022 – United Arab Emirates 0 – 5 Argentina
28/09/2022 – Argentina 3 – 0 Jamaica
24/09/2022 – Argentina 3 – 0 Honduras
06/06/2022 – Argentina 5 – 0 Estonia
Mexico – Statistics & current form
The feeling of scoring a goal at a World Cup is something many Mexicans only know from hearsay. El Tri have now failed to score in three consecutive matches at World Cup finals. In their opening match against Poland (0:0), the North Americans were also harmless on the offensive. Although Lozano and Co. repeatedly made committed deep runs, they lacked precision, conviction and ultimately, somehow, the necessary quality.
After all, coach Gerardo Martino’s team has one more point on its account than the Argentines and is therefore nowhere near as much under pressure. Even in the event of another draw, the tricolours would probably still be in control of their own progress with a win against Saudi Arabia at the end of the tournament.
Mexico will stonewall again
For this very reason, we again expect a very defensive Mexican side that will take very few risks and instead rely on a compact defensive effort. Under normal circumstances, this means that we will see few goals at the Lusail Stadium. Consequently, before the Argentina-Mexico clash, we are looking at the Under 2.5 prediction or betting that no goal will be scored in the first 31 minutes of this encounter.
In coach Tata Martino’s attack, Raul Jimenez could become an interesting alternative off the bench. Although the centre-forward, who once suffered a serious head injury, has not featured for Wolves in the Premier League since August, he was substituted against Poland and could add a different static to Mexico’s play. However, the attacker is not known as a classic switch player either.
Predicted Mexico line-up:
Ochoa – Gallardo, Montes, Moreno, Sanchez – Guardado, Alvarez, Herrera – Vega, Jimenez, Lozano
Last matches played by Mexico:
World Cup Group C
22/11/2022 – Mexico 0 – 0 Poland
Friendly matches
17/11/2022 – Mexico 1 – 2 Sweden
10/11/2022 – Mexico 4 – 0 Iraq
28/09/2022 – Colombia 3 – 2 Mexico
25/09/2022 – Mexico 1 – 0 Peru
Argentina – Mexico Direct comparison / H2H balance
These teams from Argentina and Mexico have met 31 times. Only on four occasions did the Mexicans come out on top. On the other hand, the South Americans have won 15 times and drawn twelve.
The Albiceleste have also won all three previous encounters at a World Cup finals, with a goal difference of 11:5. The last friendly in 2019 ended 4-0 in favour of the Argentines, who are unbeaten in ten games against their upcoming opponents across all competitions.
Argentina – Mexico Tip
For the Argentine national team, the second group match is already a real final. In case of a defeat, the South Americans are eliminated for sure. Even a draw won’t help. A victory is needed. In the run-up to the match between Argentina and Mexico, this is considered extremely likely with betting odds of 1.60 on the three-way market. However, it will not be that easy for the Scolani team.
For one thing, the pressure has increased immeasurably after the opening defeat against Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, Lionel Messi and Co. looked anything but well-rehearsed against the Saudis. Few ideas in the forward play, vulnerabilities in the defence as well as physical problems caused the embarrassing defeat, which will certainly still be in the bones at the weekend.
We therefore refrain from betting on a win between Argentina and Mexico, preferring to play the Under 2.5 at attractive odds of 1.83 at Bet365. Even if the Argentines are much better than they were during the week, two goals should be the maximum in view of Mexico’s good defence.
