Will the Équipe Tricolore be able to defend their title against Messi?
The ranks at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar have thinned out, leaving Argentina and France as two absolute heavyweights competing for the overall title on Sunday. It is anything but easy to make a prediction on the World Cup final between Argentina and France. After all, both nations sold themselves very expensively in the course of the tournament, set several exclamation marks, were defensively compact and have top-class individualists who could decide a final on their own.
It is accordingly coherent to make a World Cup final prediction for Argentina against France that includes goals on both sides. After all, the nation that should fall behind has the potential to strike back. While Les Bleus have failed to keep a clean sheet in five of their six World Cup matches, no team has allowed as few shots as Argentina – just 5.7 per game.
Interestingly, this 2022 World Cup final will feature two nations who both lost a game in the preliminary round. The last time that was the case was the 1978 World Cup final between Argentina and the Netherlands. Will this be a good omen for the Albiceleste? At least the South Americans already lost 4-3 to the Équipe Tricolore four years ago in a rousing round of 16 match.
Although both nations are now much more stable defensively. The offensive potential of both finalists is nevertheless enormous, which is why we find the greatest value in betting that both teams will score in regulation time.
Argentina – Statistics & current form
For a long time, the Argentinian national football team has had the reputation of being the “eternal runners-up”. No wonder, because since the peak of the Maradona era, which produced the Albiceleste’s second and to date last World Cup title in 1986, the South Americans had only won the Copa América in 1993.
What followed were no less than six lost finals at World and South American Championships in a row. It was only last year that Argentina were able to strike back and win the Copa America 2021 for the first time in 28 years.
Only one defeat in last 42 internationals
Now in their sixth World Cup final – only Germany have been to the final more times (eight) – the Albiceleste will naturally be looking to claim their third title. The Argentines would then be the first nation since Spain in 2010 to lose their opening match and still land the big one in the end.
Speaking of losing their opening game, that remarkable 2-1 defeat to Saudi Arabia was the only match the reigning Copa América champions have lost in their last 42 internationals (30 wins, 11 draws). The betting odds on Argentina against France in the World Cup final are therefore very slightly in favour of Lionel Scaloni’s team, who at 44 is the youngest coach in a World Cup final since Rudi Völler in 2002 (42).
Will Messi say goodbye with World Cup title?
The question of whether the Albiceleste can win the World Cup title certainly stands or falls with superstar Messi, who has already declared that this final will be his last World Cup game regardless of the outcome. With 26 World Cup games, the 35-year-old will not only go down in history as Argentina’s record international player at World Cups. With his eleven World Cup goals so far, he has also overtaken the legendary Diego Maradona.
By the way, “La Pulga” could immortalise himself in the history books yet another time if he scores in the World Cup final. Not only would he become the second oldest goal scorer in the final behind Nils Liedholm (for Sweden in 1958 against Brazil), but he would also be the first player of all time to score not only in the group stage but also in every single knockout match afterwards.
Only lost three of twelve international matches against France
With a view to the Albiceleste’s extremely strong international record, the Scaloni eleven can certainly go into the World Cup final with a broad chest. After all, in seven of the ten finals in which a South American and a European nation have faced each other, the winner’s trophy has gone to South America.
Argentina, of all countries, has been responsible for two of these three exceptions (against Germany in 1990 and 2014). Nevertheless, the record against Les Bleus reads well. Of twelve international matches against the Équipe Tricolore, Argentina has lost only three.
Argentina’s likely line-up:
Martínez – Tagliafico – Otamendi – Romero – Molina -Fernández – Paredes – Mac Allister – de Paul – Messi – Álvarez
Last matches played by Argentina:
World Cup Finals
14/12/2022 – Argentina 3 – 0 Croatia
10/12/2022 – Netherlands (3)2 – 2(4) Argentina
04/12/2022 – Argentina 2 – 1 Australia
WM Group C
01/12/2022 – Poland 0 – 2 Argentina
27/11/2022 – Argentina 2 – 0 Mexico
France – Statistics & current form
The French national football team secured the World Cup title for the first time in history at the 1998 World Cup and have since gone on to become the all-time champions. For the fourth time in seven World Cups, Les Bleus are already in the grand final in Qatar. That is twice as often as any other nation.
Combined with the overall victory at the 2018 World Cup, Équipe Tricolore currently stands at seven consecutive World Cup knockout games won. In the entire history of the World Cup, only Brazil has won more knockout matches in a row (nine between 1958 and 1970).
The first World Cup title defence in 60 years?
Since the French were beaten by today’s final opponents Argentina at the 1978 World Cup, the Équipe Tricolore has not lost any of its ten subsequent World Cup matches against a nation from South America (six wins, four draws). In 1998, Les Bleus defeated Brazil 3-0 to win a final against a South American team.
In view of the fact that the triumph at the 2018 World Cup was also over the Albiceleste, who were beaten 4-3 in the round of 16, betting on the French achieving their first World Cup title defence in 60 years in the World Cup final between France and Argentina is by no means out of the question.
Is Karim Benzema an option again for the final?
Didier Deschamps, who has already won the World Cup as a player (1998) and as a coach (2018), could even pull a real surprise out of his sleeve.
Rumours have it that the recovered Karim Benzema is on his way to Qatar. The coach would not comment when asked about the matter, which was a deep concern. Even without the Ballon d’Or winner, who was never left out of the squad despite injury and would therefore be ready for action, Les Bleus still provide a brilliant attack.
France scored 13 goals on their way to the final at the 2022 World Cup and also have the highest number of expected goals (excluding penalties) in the tournament. However, the truth is that the Équipe Tricolore only conceded in the semi-final against Morocco (2-0). In all the other five World Cup matches, they conceded exactly one goal each.
Only lost one of the last 13 World Cup matches
Never the less, the French side have won 11 of their last 13 World Cup matches (one draw, one defeat), although the only match lost should certainly not be overrated. In the third preliminary round match against Tunisia (0:1), France were already almost certain to win the group and rotated nine positions.
Only the result against Argentina could have been better. Not only did France win only three of twelve international matches against the Albiceleste, but Les Bleus did not score a single goal in eight of those twelve international matches. However, the Équipe Tricolore scored four times in their last meeting in the 2018 round of 16.
France’s likely line-up:
Lloris – Herández – Upamecano – Varane – Koundé – Rabiot – Tchouaméni – Dembélé – Griezmann – Mbappé – Giroud
Last matches played by France:
World Cup Finals
15/12/2022 – France 2 – 0 Morocco
11/12/2022 – England 1 – 2 France
04/12/2022 – France 3 – 1 Poland
World Cup Group D
30/11/2022 – Tunisia 1 – 0 France
26/11/2022 – France 2 – 1 Denmark
Argentina – France Direct comparison / H2H Ranking
Head to head: 6 – 3 – 3
Twelve times the two nations have faced each other in total and six times Argentina have walked off the field victorious. At World Cup level, too, two of the three meetings so far have gone to the Albiceleste, although they were beaten 4-3 by Les Bleus in the last 16 of the 2018 World Cup in their most recent clash to date.
Argentina – France tip
In the World Cup final between France vs Argentina, our prediction goes to a rather high-scoring match. Although the Albiceleste have probably the most stable defence of the tournament, they were already shaky in the last 16 and quarter-finals after leading 2-0 when their opponents came into the pressure phase with the threat of elimination in sight. Against Holland, they even went into extra time and ultimately a penalty shoot-out after a last-minute goal against the opposition.
So we have a lot of value in betting that the French will also find the Argentinean goal in regulation time, while the Équipe Tricolore itself was not exactly known for white waistcoats during the tournament anyway. We are therefore betting on goals on both sides.
In the World Cup final between France and Argentina, odds of 2.00 are available for both nations to score in regulation time.
