Next test of patience for Messi and his Argentinians?
Whoever would have bet on Argentina and Australia meeting in the last 16 after the first matchday of this World Cup group stage would definitely have been rewarded with an appealing win.
While Lionel Messi and Co. famously lost sensationally to Saudi Arabia in their opener, the Australians also had their backs to the wall early on after their emphatic defeat to France. However, both teams were able to book their ticket to the knockout round with two wins in a row.
Before the second round of 16 match at this World Cup between Argentina and Australia, the odds on the South Americans to win as favourites are logically much lower. At the top, just 1.20 is offered for the victory of the title contenders after regular playing time. However, the Socceroos have surprised so far and have not conceded a goal twice in a row. Apart from that, the glaring underdogs can go into this uneven clash on Saturday night completely liberated.
This is the first time the two teams have ever faced each other at a World Cup. For the Albiceleste, it is even a real premiere, as it is the first time that the two-time world champions will meet a national team from Oceania at a finals.
The Australians, meanwhile, are winless in their four World Cup matches against South American nations so far. Between Argentina and Australia, a prediction that this drought will not end on Saturday is absolutely obvious.
Argentina – Statistics & current form
Apocalyptic doomsday scenarios have already been created with regard to the Argentinian national team after the disgraceful 2-1 defeat against Saudi Arabia on the first matchday. In fact, the South Americans put themselves in a dangerous situation with their poor performance against the clear outsiders in Group C, but in the end they managed to overcome it with flying colours.
The Himmelblauen first beat Mexico 2-0 and even secured group victory thanks to Wednesday night’s 2-0 win over Poland. Despite initial difficulties, the reigning Copa America winners are on target and are still considered one of the hottest candidates for the World Cup title. Only eternal rivals Brazil are offered lower odds to win the World Cup ahead of the round of 16 clash between Argentina and Australia.
Argentina usually takes a little time to get going
The main reason to hope for a deep run in the tournament for the Albiceleste is the fact that coach Lionel Scaloni’s team has improved from game to game so far. In the 2-0 win over Poland in the final group game, the Argentines put in by far their best and most concentrated performance. On balance, however, the finalists of the 2014 World Cup finals will even look a little too critical; after all, no other team has allowed fewer shots on goal than the Gauchos in the tournament so far.
For this reason, among others, it can be an interesting option to make a prediction on the favourites’ victory between Argentina and Australia, including a clean sheet. From a purely tactical point of view, however, it can be assumed that Lionel Messi and Co. will have to be patient once again. The South Americans have scored only one of their five goals in the tournament so far in the first half. All four goals from play came after the break, so – as so often at this Winter World Cup in Qatar – betting on more goals in the second half makes sense.
Will Messi finally score in a knockout match?
It is also exciting to note that since the introduction of the round of 16 in 1986, Argentina have only been eliminated before the quarter-finals once – in 2018 after a loss to eventual title winners France. Everything points to the co-favourites once again living up to their billing and making it through to the next round in style. The winner of the first round of 16 between the Netherlands and the USA would then be waiting there.
Lionel Scaloni will be using the starting eleven from the Poland game. On the one hand, because the Socceroos will also focus on defence and will be extremely deep. On the other hand, because of the good performance of the individual players. Lionel Messi is and remains the main hope, but he has never scored in a knockout match at the World Cup finals.
Predicted line-up of Argentina:
Martínez – Acuna, Otamendi, Romero, Molina – Fernandez, de Paul, Mac Allister – Alvarez, Messi, Di Maria
Last matches played by Argentina:
World Cup Group C
01/12/2022 – Poland 0 – 2 Argentina
27/11/2022 – Argentina 2 – 0 Mexico
22/11/2022 – Argentina 1 – 2 Saudi Arabia
Friendly matches
16/11/2022 – United Arab Emirates 0 – 5 Argentina
28/09/2022 – Argentina 3 – 0 Jamaica
Australia – Statistics & current form
For only the second time in the federation’s history, an Australian national team has made it past the preliminary round. After 2006, when they also made it to the last 16 under Guus Hiddink, but lost out to eventual world champions Italy after Francesco Totti scored a last-minute penalty, the underdogs from Oceania will once again be playing in the 2022 finals. Hardly anyone would have expected this in the run-up to the tournament.
In a complicated group with France, Denmark and Tunisia, the Socceroos finished a more than respectable second thanks to two wins against Tunisia and Denmark. In the last six days, the Australians have celebrated as many victories as in the previous 17 World Cup matches combined. No wonder their confidence has soared and the anticipation of the upcoming World Cup round of 16 is electrifying an entire continent.
Australia with two wins and two clean sheets in a row
Despite this, there are doubts that Mitchell Duke and Co. will be able to stand up to the Gauchos, who are clearly stronger in terms of quality. It will be important for the defence to perform at a similar level as it did recently against Denmark and Tunisia. In both games, the Australians did not concede a goal and threw themselves into every ball.
With the necessary passion and commitment, as well as the necessary luck in one or the other scene, it cannot be ruled out that coach Graham Arnold’s team will be able to keep up for at least a half. As a reminder, Australia also scored the first goal of the match against France.
How long will the Socceroos hold out?
Those of a similar opinion might think about considering double HTX2/FT1 odds between Argentina and Australia. A bet on the match being tied at the break and the favourites only taking control of the match in the second half is worth a whopping 3.50 at the top, which can be placed at Bet3000.
Coach Arnold is unlikely to make any changes to his winning starting eleven. Offensively, the team is led by Mitchell Duke, who is under contract in Japan’s second division, and Mathew Leckie, who has a Bundesliga past with Hertha or Ingolstadt. Defensively, a certain Harry Soutar keeps things tight. The 24-year-old Stoke City defender has been missing through injury for many months and, combined with the Mooy/Irvine double-six, now provides some stability against the ball.
Projected line-up of Australia:
Ryan – Behich, Rowles, Souttar, Degenek – Goodwin, Mooy, Irvine, Leckie – Duke, McGree
Last matches played by Australia:
World Cup Group D
30/11/2022 – Australia 1 – 0 Denmark
26/11/2022 – Tunisia 0 – 1 Australia
23/11/2022 – France 4 – 1 Australia
Friendlies
25/09/2022 – New Zealand 0 – 2 Australia
22/09/2022 – Australia 1 – 0 New Zealand
Argentina – Australia Direct comparison / H2H balance
As mentioned in the introduction, these two nations have never faced each other at a World Cup finals. Nevertheless, there have already been seven international matches, of which the Argentines have won five. The only Australian victory dates back to 1988 and can be safely disregarded. The most recent direct encounter, meanwhile, took place in September 2007 with Argentina getting the better end. On Saturday, the cards will be reshuffled.
Argentina – Australia Tip
After Argentina’s opening defeat to Saudi Arabia, Lionel Messi and his team-mates could not afford another slip-up. Without convincing all along the line, but with a certain effectiveness and basic defensive stability, the South Americans then celebrated two victories that catapulted them to first place in Group C and thus into the last 16.
This will now be a clash between Argentina and Australia. According to the betting odds, there are no two opinions about who is the clear favourite in the duel. Quotes of 1.20 at the top imply a probability of 82%. However, as there have already been a few surprises in this winter tournament, isolated victory bets on the title contender should definitely be treated with caution.
We have therefore decided to combine the favourite win with a maximum of three goals in the course of the match. In our eyes, it is most likely that the Gauchos will win the match 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0. For our Argentina vs. Australia tip on win Argentina & Under 3.5 we get an appealing 1.72, which we play with six units.
Alternatively, it is conceivable to bet on more goals coming in the second half or Argentina winning the game after a draw at the break. Four of the five goals scored by the 2014 World Cup runners-up so far have come after the break.
