Two teams fight against the false start

During the week, Sevilla FC almost scored a very big coup. In the final of the European Super Cup, the Andalusians were leading 1-0 against the Champions League winners for a long time, but conceded the 1-1 equalizer in the second half, which resulted in an immediate penalty shootout. In this shootout, Nemanja Gudelj became the tragic figure as the last shooter on the side of the southern Spaniards with his miss.

Nevertheless, this match against the best club team on the continent at the moment showed once again what coach Jose Luis Mendilibar’s team is capable of. The only annoyance is that the “Nervionenses” bring the undisputed potential on the pitch at international level much more regularly than in league play.

This assessment, however, is also due to the fact that the home side from the Basque Country is considered one of the hottest relegation candidates in La Liga. This, in turn, was also evident in the previous week when the promoted side lost their first away game of the season 1-0 at Cadiz. Both teams are now fighting on the second matchday to avoid a complete false start. Perhaps this starting position increases the likelihood that in the duel Alaves against Sevilla a prediction on under-goals will come true.

Alaves – statistics & current form

At the last minute, Deportivo Alaves managed to return to the Spanish top flight last season. After having to settle for fourth place in the regular season, the Basques went into the playoffs, where they were able to hold their own against first Eibar and finally Levante. In four games, the score was zero three times. Finally, it was a 129th-minute (!) penalty in the final second leg at Levante that secured promotion.

In general, the defense is the showpiece of coach Luis Garcia’s team. In 42 match days in La Liga 2, the team conceded a meager 33 goals. Only a third of those goals were conceded at home (eleven), where the club from the basketball stronghold of Vitoria-Gasteiz won 13 of their 21 games and only lost one (seven draws).

Spectacle does not know Alaves

With those impressive home and defensive statistics in mind, it will be exciting to see how the possibly somewhat tired visitors from Andalusia counter on Monday night. However, since Garcia’s team already had problems during the preparation, losing against the underclass Burgos (1:2) or against Valencia (0:2), among others, and finally also on the first matchday at the direct competitor Cadiz with 0:1, we deliberately refrain from taking a closer look at the odds on the home win in the duel Alaves vs. Sevilla.

Instead, we assume that the preferred approach of the blue and white team will be to stay without conceding a goal for as long as possible and to pose problems for their opponents with pinpricks. Therefore, if you don’t want to take the big risk in the form of an away win, you’ll be much safer with the low Alaves vs. Sevilla odds of Under 2.5 goals. In no less than 17 of the past 20 (!) matches involving the Basques, the mark of three or more goals has not been broken.

Predicted lineup of Alaves:

Deportivo Alaves (Expected lineup) 5-4-1

Sevilla – statistics & current form

Sevilla FC started the new season with great ambitions. After a largely messed up 2022/23 season at national level, the Andalusians had a lot planned before the first matchday. In the end, however, virtually everything that could go wrong did. The “Blanquirrojos” lost 2-1 at home to Valencia and thus made a colossal false start.

This first setback could almost have been erased, at least to some extent, with Wednesday’s success in the European Super Cup against Manchester City, but the lead against the Sky Blues did not last until the end. Nevertheless, the defense of the southern Spaniards left a good impression against the star ensemble from the island, which in turn increases the chance that also on Monday night between Alaves and Sevilla the odds on tend to pay off rather few goals.

Sevilla finished last season as a dangerous visitor

Although, of course, we can expect a very different game in the context of the second matchday in La Liga, we would not be surprised if the team of coach Jose Luis Mendilibar remains without conceding a goal in the Basque Country. Qualitatively, the White and Reds are definitely stronger and that despite the fact that regular keeper and World Cup hero Bono left the club for Saudi Arabia immediately after the Super Cup final. Marko Dmitrovic will therefore be in charge at the start of the week.

Another argument in favor of the “Nervionenses” on Monday evening is the fact that Sevilla FC have lost only one of their last six away games in La Liga, conceding just three goals in total and even keeping a clean sheet in four of the aforementioned six matches. If this away consistency built up under Mendilibar can continue, it’s not unreasonable to predict that the visiting side might win the match between Alaves and Sevilla by a clean sheet after all

Predicted Sevilla lineup:

SevillaFC (Expected lineup) 4-2-3-1

Alaves – Sevilla Direct comparison / H2H balance

24 matches have been played between the two clubs so far in the Spanish top flight. With eleven wins, seven draws and only six defeats, Sevilla leads the direct comparison as expected. In the Basque Country, however, the Andalusians have only managed three wins in twelve attempts to date. The last away game at Alaves ended 0-0 in the joint La Liga season of 2021/22, while the previous year saw a narrow 1-0 away win for the southern Spaniards in the Copa del Rey round of 16. In both cases, there was no goal in the first half, which will still be important for our main tip.

Alaves – Sevilla tip

The second matchday in La Liga will end on Monday evening with two games at once. At 9:30 p.m., promoted Granada will face Rayo Vallecano, and two hours earlier, CD Alaves, another promoted team, will take on reigning Europa League winners FC Sevilla.

On paper, it is understandable that the Mendilibar eleven is given the slightly better chances of success. Nevertheless, the betting odds between Alaves and Sevilla underline quite impressively that we can expect a duel at eye level. Since both teams started the season with defeats in the previous week, the total false start in the form of two defeats from the first two games should of course be prevented.

In our opinion, this will mean that the very big risk will not be taken in the first half. Therefore, we are in good spirits that you can dust off both nice odds and decent value with the Alaves vs Sevilla bet on a goalless first half. The 2.30 is interesting in that even in the Basques’ most recent two home games against the Andalusians, there was only one goal in total, and it came after the break. Five units is our notional stake