Can Sevilla keep up the pressure on Real Madrid?
During the week, the two finalists in the King’s Cup were determined and already on Friday evening the whistle sounds in Andalusia for the 27th matchday of the current LaLiga season. The Mendizorrotza stadium will be the scene of a duel of differences. The clash between Alaves and Sevilla can also be described as a duel between relegation fear and championship dreams.
The Basques from Alaves have been in the top flight for six years, but are now threatened with a bitter fall into the second division. They are already four points behind the bottom of the league. The gap is slightly larger for Lopetegui’s team from Andalusia, who are still quietly dreaming of the title despite being six points behind Real Madrid. The prerequisite for this, however, is an away win, for which there are betting odds of just under 2.00 in the match between Alaves and Sevilla.
A landmark clash for both teams, in which the quality and form advantages are clearly to be found with the visitors. The match kicks off on Friday evening at 9pm, live on DAZN.
Alaves – Statistics & current form
Last season was already a pure disappointment for Deportivo Alaves, but in the end the Basques saved themselves by a razor-thin margin and fixed another year of first division football. This season, the Blue and Whites have picked up only 21 points after 26 games, which is even one point less than last year. Once again, Alaves fans will have to hope for a successful final third.
Only one win under Mendilibar
At the turn of the year, the relegation candidates also made a coaching change. Javier Calleja was succeeded by Jose Luis Mendilibar, who was given a contract until the end of the season. The mission is clear: if the team stays in the relegation zone, the cooperation will continue. In the meantime, Alaves have played eight games under his wing, but have only managed one victory (2-1 against Valencia).
He has not been able to stabilise the defence in particular, which becomes clear when looking at the goal difference of 6:15 in these eight games. With a total of 44 goals conceded, the 18th-placed team has the second-weakest defence in the league. Only last-placed Levante has a worse record with 51 goals conceded. Alaves have kept their clean sheet in just four of their 26 league games, the lowest figure in LaLiga.
Life insurance Joselu
But it’s not just the defence that’s causing major worry lines, it’s the offence too. So far, Alaves have only scored 21 goals and more than half of those goals are to the credit of former Germany legionnaire Joselu (Hoffenheim, Frankfurt, Hannover). With twelve goals and two assists, he was directly involved in exactly two thirds of all Alaves goals. If you are considering a prediction on an Alaves goal in the clash between Alaves and Sevilla, you can also take advantage of the interesting betting odds for a Joselu goal. More than triple the stake is waiting for a successful goal bet on the 31-year-old full-blooded striker.
Predicted line-up of Alaves:
Pacheco – Duarte, Lejeune, Laguardia, Tenaglia – Pina – Rioja, Escalante, Loum, Mendez, Joselu
Last matches played by Alaves:
LaLiga
02/26 2022 – Getafe 2 – 2 Deportivo Alaves
02/19 2022 – Real Madrid 3 – 0 Deportivo Alaves
02/13 2022 – Deportivo Alaves 2 – 1 Valencia
02/05 2022 – Elche 3 – 1 Deportivo Alaves
Club friendlies
01/27 2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 0 – 1 Deportivo Alaves
Sevilla – Statistics & current form
Sevilla FC took the crown in Spanish football in 1945/46 – this was the only championship for the Andalusians so far. In the recent past, the club has been able to lift a few trophies to the sky, but the championship has never been an issue due to the dominance of the competition. This season, Julen Lopetegui’s side are the only serious contenders for the white ballet from Madrid.
Away the consistency is missing
The reasons for the current deficit can be found quickly. While the team has been outstanding at home in the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium (10-3-0 record), there have been repeated unnecessary losses of points away from home. Sevilla have averaged “only” 1.62 points in their 13 away games so far. The only two defeats of the season were away from home (against Granada and Real Madrid), but the many points shared are particularly problematic. The Sevillistas have had to settle for just one point on six occasions, including the last three league away games.
A point loss at a relegation candidate would probably make even the boldest optimists slowly come to their senses. For Sevilla, who face West Ham United in the Europa League next week, a full success is more or less mandatory on Friday night. In terms of personnel, winger Suso is the only absentee. Otherwise, the Andalusians can draw from the full range.
What is striking about Alaves against Sevilla are the high odds on the over 2.5, because in view of the strong Sevilla offensive, a game with at least three goals would not be a surprise. Value is definitely given at betting odds of just under 2.50. However, it must be mentioned that such a bet goes against the statistics. Especially in the away games so far, the Lopetegui team has been stingy with goals. In 13 league games, there were only 18 goals (11:7 goal difference) and only one game (the 1:2 against Real Madrid) ended with three goals.
Predicted Sevilla line-up:
Bono – Acuna, Diego Carlos, Fernando, Navas – Jordan, Delaney, Rakitic – Papu Gomez, En-Nesyri, Jesus Corona
Last matches played by Sevilla:
LaLiga
02/27 2022 – Sevilla 2 – 1 Real Betis
Europa League Final Stage
02/24 2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 1 – 0 Sevilla
LaLiga
02/20 2022 – Espanyol 1 – 1 Sevilla
Europa League Final Stage
02/17 2022 – Sevilla 3 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb
LaLiga
02/11 2022 – Sevilla 2 – 0 Elche
Alaves – Sevilla Direct comparison / H2H record
Not surprisingly, the direct comparison in this duel speaks a clear language in favour of Sevilla FC. The red and whites have won 18 of the 34 duels so far, while Deportivo Alaves have only managed a full success against their big neighbours eight times. However, the last win in LaLiga was a while ago – on 14 January 2018. Since then, there have been nine games, with five Sevilla wins and four draws. In the first leg, a sensation was in the air for a long time before Ivan Rakitic finally gave Sevilla a point in injury time (2-2).
Alaves – Sevilla Spain Tip
The two extremes meet in this match on Friday night and yet the teams have one thing in common. For both teams, only a full success counts in order not to lose sight of their goals. Although the title candidates have often stumbled away from home this season, a prediction on Alaves against Sevilla can be made with a clear conscience.
Alaves have not caught on under Mendilibar either and still have huge problems defensively. Sevilla are often stingy with goals away from home, however, the match-free week (one of very few for the Andalusians) is certainly a big advantage to be able to play this guest game with a full battery. The quality is undisputed and so is the weak form of the home side. Accordingly, betting on the visitors is recommended for Alaves against Sevilla. A riskier value bet is the over 2.5 and a Joselu goal.
