Second against last: Mandatory win for Atletico at Alaves
It’s the duel between champions and second in the table against last in the table without a win or a point: When Atletico Madrid host Deportivo Alaves at the Estadio Mendizorrotza in the northern Spanish city of Vitoria-Gasteiz on Saturday at 2pm, the omens are clear.
Atleti are the clear favourites, anything less than three points would be a bitter disappointment. In the Deportivo Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid match, the odds naturally also show the reigning champions as the favourites, but with one caveat.
Because a draw would also be conceivable and certainly not out of the question. However, this is less due to Alaves’ previous performances and results, but rather those of Atletico.
The Rojiblancos have often found it more than difficult of late, sometimes playing out draws or only scraping past them very late on.
It is therefore hardly surprising that the best bookmakers are only offering odds of 3.90 on the draw between Alaves and Atletico Madrid.
Spain Alaves – Statistics & current form
What Deportivo Alaves have been showing this season is in fact a good description of tenacious. The Basques are bottom of the La Liga table after 5 match days. Worse still, they have lost all five of their games – Alaves have not yet managed to collect a single point. Only Getafe started the season worse, the team from the Madrid suburbs also has 0 points on their account, but one game more.
Alaves also has the weakest defence (11 goals conceded) and the most harmless attack – coach Javi Calleja’s team has scored just one measly goal so far. No wonder the coach’s chair is wobbling.
Calleja’s magic quickly faded
And yet Calleja only took over Alaves in April and even saved them from relegation last season – with strong results. In the nine games of the 2020/21 season under his leadership, there were only two defeats, so Alaves kept surprisingly comfortable in the end.
But Alaves were unable to carry these strong performances and results into the new season, which is why Calleja is now under pressure after the disastrous false start.
Having to face the hard-to-beat champions from the Madrid capital is not a pleasant task, but Atletico are anything but solid, as their last games show. A point for the home side is anything but utopian; last year Atleti already had a hard time at the Medizorrotza and only won by a goal in the 90th minute.
For us, a draw is therefore not out of the question for Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid – even if Alaves are still without a point so far.
Predicted line-up of Alaves:
Pacheco – Aguierregabiria, Tachi, Laguardia, Duarte – Loum, Pina, Rioja, Garcia – Guidetti, Joselu
Last matches played by Alaves:
Spain Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
The reasons why for us the prediction on a draw in Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid, even if it seems risky, is quite plausible, are quickly explained:
Atletico have not been convincing at all in their last five matches, sometimes had serious problems – and by a hair’s breadth, they even managed a draw at best from all five games. Atletico scored several important goals in the final minutes or even seconds. They drew 2-2 against Villarreal, where Atletico equalised literally at the final whistle thanks to a curious Villarreal own goal in the 95th minute.
Atletico keep striking late to rescue points
Even later, Atletico scored the winner in a 2-1 away win at Espanyol, scoring the much-celebrated winner in the 99th minute (with ten minutes of stoppage time). There were two disappointing nil-nil results in the Champions League (0-0 against FC Porto) and in the league (0-0 against Athletic Bilbao) before coach Diego Simeone’s last-minute men struck again at Getafe.
On Matchday 6 during the week on Tuesday, Atletico were once again behind (as they had been against Villarreal and Espanyol), but Luis Suarez’s brace saved victory for the Rojiblancos, who were once again lacklustre in the minor derby. The winning goal came – when else – in the 90th minute.
Tough games, tough performances, a few draws and late goals that saved victories – that is Atletico’s formula of the last few weeks. The champions are in second place behind Real Madrid in La Liga with 14 points from six games, but it could have been far fewer points.
Ahead of the Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid game, the betting odds on Atletico winning are just 1.55 on average – not a particularly lucrative proposition given the lacklustre performances of the champions, who are of course favourites but have also shown that they regularly struggle to score.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak – Savic, Felipe, Hermoso – Trippier, Koke, Llorente, Carrasco – Griezmann, Suarez, Correa
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
Alaves – Atletico Madrid Direct comparison / H2H Record
Atletico also struggled twice against Deportivo Alaves last season, although both games were won. At home it was a tired 1-0, but it was really close away from home in the last match. Atletico were behind here and turned the game around in the final stages to win 2-1, including the winner in the 90th minute, of course.
For Deportivo Alaves, the negative streak against Atleti continued: The team from Vitoria-Gasteiz has been waiting for a win against Atletico Madridfor twelve matches. There have been four draws and eight defeats in the process.
Spain Alaves – Atletico Madrid Spain Tip
If you only look at the table and not at the performances of the last weeks, you will expect a clear thing. Alaves are last and have not yet picked up a single point, champions Atletico are unbeaten in second place, only Real Madrid have started the season better. For Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid, the odds clearly show the visitors as favourites.
However, Atletico’s performances have left a lot to be desired in recent weeks, with many wins and points only coming in the closing minutes. So you can expect a tough affair on Saturday as well, because Alaves will build a defence – and Atletico regularly have a hard time with that, especially away from home.
A lot of struggle and cramp and few goals – that’s what you can expect from this game. In the end, however, the Rojiblancos should have the better end in their favour, because Alaves has been extremely weak so far and lacks any self-confidence.
For example, a narrow 1-0 victory for the champions would certainly not surprise anyone. Ultimately, our prediction for Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid is: Atletico win and Under 3.5 goals
