Will the hosts continue their home winning streak?
In the 2-2 draw in the first leg at the Estádio da Luz, Ajax Amsterdam squandered two leads. In the end, the Godenzonen nevertheless secured a good starting position for the second leg. So far, the Dutch have won all three of their home games in the 2021/22 Champions League season. If they now manage a fourth Champions League home win in a row for the first time since 1996, their ticket to the quarterfinals is secure.
For their part, the Encarnados need either the extra-time draw or the away win for a first quarterfinal appearance in six years. However, the Portuguese have won only one of their last ten guest matches in the Netherlands. Consequently, ahead of the second leg between Ajax Amsterdam and Benfica Lisbon, the odds are swinging in the direction of the Godenzones.
It should be noted, however, that the Dutch have always conceded two goals in four of their last five competitive matches. Considering that Ajax have also scored twice in their seven Champions League games so far this season (22 goals in total), we expect a high-scoring second leg.
We see the greatest value in betting on Ajax Amsterdam against Benfica Lisbon to score over 3.5 goals.
Ajax Amsterdam – Statistics & current form
Ajax Amsterdam could not only already win the European Cup of national champions three times in 1971, 1972 and 1973. The Godenzonen also secured the Champions League back in 1995, making them four-time overall winners in the competition.
Erik ten Hag’s squad last reached the semifinals in the 2018/19 season and tragically failed to advance to the next final after a dramatic second leg against Tottenham despite leading 2-0 at one stage, losing 3-2 due to the away goals rule.
Won all six group matches in preliminary round
At the new season, however, the Dutch are reaching for the stars again. Not only is Ajax finally marching towards their next national championship in the domestic Eredivisie, where they have won 20 of their 26 league games while scoring 77 goals and conceding just eleven.
Internationally, too, the Godenzones have impressively won all six of their group games in the Champions League preliminary round on 20:5 goals to secure group victory. Among others, they also defeated reigning Portuguese champions and Benfica city rivals Sporting CP in first and second legs.
Scored twice in all seven Champions League games
The Dutch side’s offense has been particularly striking, scoring at least two goals in all seven Champions League matches so far in the 2021/22 season, taking their total to 22.
The Godenzones, who have also conceded two goals in four of their last five competitive matches, will be favored in the second leg.
Predicted lineup of Ajax Amsterdam:
Onana – Blind – Martínez – Timber – Mazraoui – Gravenberch – Álvarez – Tadic – Berghuis – Antony – Haller
Last matches played by Ajax Amsterdam:
Eredivisie
03/11 2022 – SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 2 – 3 Ajax Amsterdam
03/06 2022 – Ajax Amsterdam 3 – 2 RKC Waalwijk
KNVB Cup
03/03 2022 – AZ Alkmaar 0 – 2 Ajax Amsterdam
Eredivisie
02/27 2022 – Go Ahead Eagles 2 – 1 Ajax Amsterdam
Champions League Final
02/23 2022 – Benfica 2 – 2 Ajax Amsterdam
Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form
Benfica Lisbon have also recorded two overall victories in this competition, dating back to 1961 and 1962, before the infamous Guttmann Curse took hold. The Encarnados still reached a European final a total of seven times, but missed out on winning the title on all seven occasions.
The Águias have not reached the final of the top flight since 1990. Since the competition was renamed the Champions League, Benfica’s last appearance was in the quarterfinals, which they reached in the 2015/16 season.
Won only one of the last 14 Champions League away games
Now, the Encarnados need an away win in Amsterdam after the 2-2 draw from the first leg to enter the round of the best eight teams in Europe again. A draw could also force extra time and a penalty shootout.
The fact that the Portuguese have not lost any of their last seven competitive matches (four wins, three draws) speaks in their favor. Against the Águias, however, speaks that only one of the last 14 away games in the Champions League was won (four draws, nine defeats).
National already twelve points behind first place
On Friday, the team, which occupies a sobering third place in the Liga Portugal with twelve points behind FC Porto, also failed the dress rehearsal. The Encarnados couldn’t get beyond a 1-1 draw at home against promoted and underdog Vizela.
Nevertheless, Nélson Veríssimo’s team showed great morale in the first leg and always came back after two setbacks. Accordingly, there is a lot of value to be found in the betting on Ajax Amsterdam against Benfica Lisbon, which could be very high-scoring.
Predicted lineup of Benfica Lisbon:
Vlachodimos – Grimaldo – Vertonghen – Otamendi – Gilberto – Éverton – Weigl – Taarabt – Silva – Yaremchuk – Núnez
Last matches played by Benfica Lisbon:
Liga Portugal
03/11 2022 – Benfica 1 – 1 Vizela
03/05 2022 – Portimonense 1 – 2 Benfica
02/27 2022 – Benfica 3 – 0 Vitoria de Guimaraes
Champions League Final
02/23 2022 – Benfica 2 – 2 Ajax Amsterdam
Liga Portugal
02/18 2022 – Boavista 2 – 2 Benfica
Ajax Amsterdam – Benfica Lisbon Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 4 – 3 – 1
The two teams have faced each other a total of eight times so far and with four wins Ajax Amsterdam leads the direct comparison. The Godenzonen also won their last three home games against the Encarnados, while the last three guest games in Lisbon all ended in draws.
Ajax Amsterdam – Benfica Lisbon tip
When it comes to Ajax Amsterdam vs Benfica Lisbon, the prediction goes in the direction of the home side, who are still unbeaten in seven games in the Champions League this season (six wins, one draw) and have scored at least two goals in every single match (22 goals in total). This compares to Encarnados who are weak away from home, having lost nine of their last 14 Champions League away games.
Even with a view to the low odds offered for tip 1, however, it makes much more sense to leave the outcome of the match open and instead bet on another goal festival. After all, the Godenzonen have also conceded two goals in four of their last five competitive matches.
