Belgrade travel to Cyprus in the role of favourites
Only four games stand between the teams still in contention and the Europa League group stage. Two aspirants for participation are the Cypriot representatives AEK Larnaca and the Serbs of Partizan Belgrade. That the guests are to be favoured in this duel becomes clear when we take a look at the current market value of the squads. While the home side’s market value is eleven million euros, the black and white team’s is in the three-digit range.
In the domestic league, the Yellow-Greens are overshadowed by the teams from Nicosia. APOEL in particular is the international flagship of Cypriot football. Nevertheless, three-time national champions Larnaca want to make the most of their chance to reach the lucrative group stage. But there is a thick board to be drilled with the Serbs.
The guests are already in full competition mode and have already played four league games. The steamrollers are regulars in the European competitions and naturally want to play a good role in the Europa League this year. Kick-off at the AEK Arena will be at 17:30 on Thursday. Will the hosts be able to surprise Belgrade and create a good starting position for themselves?
AEK Larnaca – Statistics & current form
Although AEK Larnaca regularly qualify for the championship round of the Cypriot First Division, they just can’t seem to hit the big time. In 1970, the Yellow-Greens’ supporters celebrated their last championship. This year, too, Apollon Limassol and APOEL Nicosia are two teams that have to be beaten first.
Last year, the Yellow-Greens finished a very good second behind the Blue-Whites from Limassol. AEK were only four points behind at the end of the championship round, for which the first six teams of the regular season qualify. The Yellow-Greens thus made it into the Champions League qualifiers.
Out in CL qualifying after penalty shootout
This was against the Danish representative Midtjylland. In the first leg, the team of the new head coach Jose Luis Oltra won a 1-1 draw and gained a good starting position. But the second leg ended with the same result and in the penalty shoot-out the Danes proved to have the better nerves and eliminated the Cypriots from their Champions League dream.
Now it is up to them to find their luck in the Europa League. But with the Serbians from Belgrade, an internationally experienced team awaits the largely unknown players from Cyprus. Last season’s top scorer, captain Ivan Trickovski, who scored the most goals in the championship round, was retained. Many young players from their own U21s were integrated into the new squad and are to be introduced to a higher level.
Can the defence be relied on again?
It remains to be seen to what extent this eleven will be able to stand up to the visitors. The bookmakers are rather sceptical and do not make any positive predictions in favour of the home side in the match AEK Larnaca vs. Partizan Belgrade and the odds are at 3.00 at the top. The defence, which only allowed seventeen goals in the regular round last year, will be important again if the dream of the group stage is not to be shattered again.
Predicted line-up of AEK Larnaca:
Piric – Garcia, Milicevic, Tomovic, Rosales – Gustavo, Oier – Faraj, Trickovski, Gyurcso – Olatunji
Last matches played by AEK Larnaca:
Champions League Qualifier
26/07/2022 – AEK Larnaca (3)1 – 1(4) FC Midtjylland
20/07/2022 – FC Midtjylland 1 – 1 AEK Larnaca
Club friendlies
02/07/2022 – Rapid Vienna 2 – 3 AEK Larnaca
1st League Championship Grp.
22/05/2022 – Apollon Limassol 0 – 1 AEK Larnaca
14/05/2022 – AEK Larnaca 2 – 0 Pafos FC
Partizan Belgrade – Statistics & current form
The Serbian Linglong Tire SuperLiga seeks its champion over a regular season of first and second legs, with a subsequent championship round involving the top eight teams. Partizan entered the championship round in second place after 30 match days, narrowly edging out city rivals Red Star. The consolation prize was the chance to qualify for the Europa League group stage.
The Black and Whites have made only a moderate start to the current season. From the first four games, the Serbian record champions picked up just five points and are in sixth place in the table. Head coach Ilija Stolica’s team is now seven points behind the big favourites, Red Star.
Belgrade again rely on Gomes in the offensive
Last year, the strong defence was particularly reliable, allowing only 13 goals in the entire season. This year, things are very different and Partizan have conceded an average of one goal per game so far. On the other hand, the offensive is already running smoothly again. Top scorer Ricardo Gomes from the Cape Verde Islands, who was the league’s top scorer last year with 29 goals, has already scored twice this season.
But even he could not prevent the defeat on the last matchday, when the Black and Whites surprisingly lost 0:1 at Novi Pazar. This was the first defeat of the season after the win over Javor (4:0) and the two draws at Radnicki (3:3) and against Backa Topola (0:0).
Partizan are internationally experienced
The guests are regulars on the international stage. Last year, the Stolica team took part in the Europa Conference League. They made it all the way to the round of 16, where Feyenoord Rotterdam were too big for them. In the first leg they lost 5-2, and in the 3-1 defeat in Holland there was not much to be gained. The Cypriots will now be looking to get out of the way on their way to the group stage of the Europa League.
Predicted line-up of Partizan Belgrade:
Stevanovic – Urosevic, Sanicanin, Vujacic, Belic – Andrade, Zdjelar – Petkovic, Natkho, Terzic – Gomes
Last matches played by Partizan Belgrade:
1st Division
29/07/2022 – Novi Pazar 1 – 0 Partizan Belgrade
24/07/2022 – Partizan Belgrade 0 – 0 TSC Backa Topola
16/07/2022 – Radnicki Nis 3 – 3 Partizan Belgrade
10/07/2022 – Javor 0 – 4 Partizan Belgrade
Club friendlies
02/07/2022 – Fenerbahçe 1 – 0 Partizan Belgrade
AEK Larnaca – Partizan Belgrade Direct comparison / H2H-balance
This Thursday sees the first clash between these two teams and in the match between AEK Larnaca and Partizan Belgrade, the bookmakers’ predictions see the visitors having the advantage. The plus on their side should at least be the fact that the championship is already underway in Serbia and the black and whites are in competitive mode.
AEK Larnaca – Partizan Belgrade Tip
The first legs of the Europa League third qualifying round are on the agenda this week. The Cypriots from Larnaca have to face the Serbian representative after their elimination in the Champions League. In the clash between AEK Larnaca and Partizan Belgrade, odds of 3.00 are being paid at the top for a win for the hosts.
The visitors have the advantage that the Serbian championship started four weeks ago and the Black and Whites have already played a few competitive matches. From our point of view, coach Ilija Stolica’s team is better placed in terms of personnel and is not without reason the favourite in this duel. However, last weekend’s defeat shows that the visitors are far from having everything their own way yet.
Even though we would sign the Serbians as favourites, we take a look at the odds in the goal segment. The last matches between the two teams suggest a low-scoring game, so our recommendation in the match AEK Larnaca vs Partizan Belgrade is to bet on a duel with less than 2.5 goals. We are offered odds of 1.66 for this match.
We think that the visitors hold the better cards in this duel and will win in the end. However, it remains to be seen whether the Black and Whites will make everything clear in the first leg. Nevertheless, we are betting on an away win in the match between AEK Larnaca and Partizan Belgrade at odds of 2.45 with a small stake.
