Final match for the Bullen eleven at the San Siro Stadium
Twelve of the 16 round of 16 tickets have already been allocated ahead of the final matchday in the UEFA Champions League group stage. Although a decision has already been made in many groups, there is no lack of excitement. Especially from the red-white-red point of view, the focus will be on neighbouring Italy on Wednesday evening. AC Milan and Red Bull Salzburg will face each other at the San Siro Stadium, a direct duel for one of the last four places in the last 16.
In Group E, Chelsea are already confirmed as promoted and group winners. The Italian champions from Milan only need a draw against the Bulls to secure second place. The Salzburgers have to beat the Rossoneri to reach the knockout phase again. However, in a worst-case scenario, the Jaissle eleven could even face a complete international knockout. If Dinamo Zagreb win at Stamford Bridge and Salzburg lose at the San Siro, the Bullen would be bottom of the group. The Bullen managers will (have to) keep one eye on England at all times.
This difficult balancing act is a great challenge for Salzburg’s very young team (the average age of the starting eleven in this CL season is 22 years and 279 days). In the duel between AC Milan and Red Bull Salzburg, bets on the bulls can be as much as six times as much. Accordingly, the home side from Milan are considered to be the heavy favourites.
AC Milan – Statistics & current form
While Red Bull Salzburg were already in action on Saturday at 5pm this weekend, the Pioli eleven were not allowed to play their current championship match until Sunday evening at 8:45pm. The regeneration time before the final group game is therefore much shorter than for the Bullen. In addition, the dress rehearsal did not go according to plan for the reigning champions, as the garnets of FC Torino celebrated a surprising 2:1 home victory. This means that AC Milan are already six points behind leaders SSC Napoli after twelve matchdays.
Convincing performance at the Maksimir
Despite the fluffed dress rehearsal, there is much to suggest that the Pioli eleven will be able to rejoice on Wednesday evening and spend the winter in the top flight. Last week, the difficult away match at Dinamo Zagreb’s Maksimir Stadium was won 4-0. For the first time since February 2012, Milan scored four goals in a CL match. The Rossoneri scored four goals in the top flight twice in a row in the spring of 2004.
Such a goal festival is not necessarily to be expected, but the chances of Milan winning two CL games in a row for the first time since October 2011 can be quantified as very good. Before the defeat in Turin, Pioli’s team had collected 18 of a possible 21 points in seven league games. So the Italian champions can definitely be said to be in good shape, and the defeat against the Garnets is undoubtedly also due to the strong rotation. Kjaer, Bennacer, Giroud and Rebic will all return to the starting line-up against the Bulls.
Milan not only have the home advantage, but also the far greater international experience in their own ranks. Pioli’s team does not have to play to win and can therefore reduce the risk very well. Unconditional offence is therefore not to be expected, which between AC Milan and Red Bull Salzburg makes the odds for the forecast Under 2.5 appear very interesting.
Predicted line-up of AC Milan:
Tatarusanu – Theo Hernandez, Gabbia, Kjaer, Kalulu – Tonali, Bennacer – Rafael Leao, de Ketelaere, Rebic – Giroud
Last matches played by AC Milan:
Serie A
31/10/2022 – FC Torino 2 – 1 AC Milan
Champions League Grp. E
26/10/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 0 – 4 AC Milan
Serie A
22/10/2022 – AC Milan 4 – 1 Monza
17/10/2022 – Verona 1 – 2 AC Milan
Champions League Grp. E
12/10/2022 – AC Milan 0 – 2 FC Chelsea
Red Bull Salzburg – Statistics & current form
In between the two CL clashes, the duty in the domestic championship was on the agenda late on Saturday afternoon. In the clash between the league leaders and the last team in the league, the aim was to save energy for the decisive clash in the San Siro stadium. The match was by no means a foregone conclusion, however, and in the end the Austrian champions struggled to a narrow 1:0 victory, thanks to which they also defended their lead in the table.
Blood young Bullen eleven looking forward to “awesome game “
Now the biggest game of their career so far is on the agenda for many Salzburg players. After the 1:2 defeat against Chelsea last Tuesday, the Bulls did not dwell on the defeat, but immediately turned their gaze to the future. Luka Sucic is literally looking forward to the “awesome game in Milan”. The prerequisite for this not ending in defeat, however, is that the quality of passing in the Bulls’ game improves.
In the game against Chelsea, Red Bull Salzburg had a disastrous pass rate of 50% (115 out of 230 passes), which is the second lowest in CL history (since data collection in 2003/04). Only CFR Cluj had a far more disastrous record (30.1% successful passes) against Galatasaray in October 2012.
Due to the difficult balancing act with the threat of a complete shutout, Salzburg will take very few risks, especially at the beginning. Should Chelsea take the lead in the parallel game, Salzburg would certainly (be able to) risk more, but as long as the score at Stamford Bridge is 0-0, their own point gain will have top priority. This constellation does not promise any offensive spectacle at the San Siro, so between AC Milan and Red Bull Salzburg, in addition to betting on the under 2.5, the bet “Will both teams score? No” is also interesting.
Predicted line-up of Red Bull Salzburg:
Köhn – Wöber, Bernardo, Pavlovic, Dedic – Seiwald, Gourna-Douath, Kjaergaard – Sucic – Okafor, Sesko
Last matches played by Red Bull Salzburg:
Bundesliga
29/10/2022 – RB Salzburg 1 – 0 Hartberg
Champions League Grp. E
25/10/2022 – RB Salzburg 1 – 2 FC Chelsea
Bundesliga
22/10/2022 – RB Salzburg 0 – 0 Sturm Graz
Cup
20/10/2022 – Admira Mödling 1 – 6 RB Salzburg
Bundesliga
16/10/2022 – Austria Wien 1 – 3 RB Salzburg
AC Milan – Red Bull Salzburg Direct comparison / H2H-balance
The final match of the CL group stage will be the fourth meeting between the two teams. Prior to this season, this clash took place in the 1994/95 season in the top flight. On that occasion, the Rossoneri won both home and away. In the first leg of the current season, the Italian champions had to describe the 1-1 draw as thoroughly fortunate. The team from the city of Mozart was clearly closer to victory, but the Jaissle eleven failed to make the most of its chances. Thus, AC Milan have lost only one of twelve competitive matches against Austrian teams (against Rapid Wien in 1957/58).
AC Milan – Red Bull Salzburg Tip
The very young team from Salzburg has made a name for itself on the international stage in recent years and has already put some renowned teams in their place. Nevertheless, advancing to the San Siro on Wednesday would be a big surprise.
The danger of losing out on the Europa League in a worst-case scenario means that Salzburg cannot play freely. The creativity and youthful recklessness of the Bullen’s game will be curtailed as a result. Therefore, Salzburg will not want to take many risks, especially at the beginning, which in turn leads to few scoring scenes/chances. In addition, four of the five previous RBS CL games ended with a score of under 2.5. Therefore, the prediction of a score of under 2.5 between AC Milan and Red Bull Salzburg is attractive with surprisingly high odds.
