Milan are clutching at the last straw
After the first three matchdays in the current Champions League group stage, only four teams are still waiting for their first win. The club with the greatest tradition and the most successful European Cup history is certainly AC Milan. The Rossoneri have already won the most important club competition on this continent seven times.
However, the Italians are currently miles away from an eighth triumph in the top flight. Even a place in the round of 16 will be a complicated hurdle, especially as coach Stefano Pioli’s team, as mentioned, currently has zero points and is at the bottom of Group B. If no prediction of a win for the red and black team pays off in the AC Milan vs. Porto clash on Wednesday evening, the dream of reaching the last 16 will probably have to be buried.
The first leg, which ended in a 1-0 win for the Portuguese a fortnight ago, underlines just how difficult this undertaking will be. Ibrahimovic and Co. fired just four shots towards the opposition’s goal in that match, the fewest in this competition since December 2013. Against this backdrop, it comes as something of a surprise that AC Milan are quite clearly favoured against Porto according to the odds. On Wednesday evening from 21:00, we will get the answer to the question of whether this starting constellation is justified.
AC Milan – Statistics & current form
Three games, three defeats and 3:6 goals – that’s how the Rossoneri’s record reads after the first three completed match days of the current Champions League group stage. At the bottom of Group B, the Italians are already four points off second and third place. If they fail to win a match on Wednesday, they may still be able to reach the Europa League under certain circumstances. If the match is lost, the red and black team will not spend the winter on the European stage.
However, the fact that Pioli’s team was not without chances in all three matches gives some hope in connection with their performance so far. Against Atletico Madrid and Liverpool, the Milanese were even ahead at the break, but let the butter be taken off their bread in the second half. Five of the six goals they conceded came after the break. This could be an interesting piece of information for betting between AC Milan and Porto that more goals will be scored in the second 45 minutes than in the first.
Does Milan finally stay focused defensively for 90 minutes?
It is also conceivable to focus on bets that, similar to the first leg a fortnight ago, not many goals will be scored on Wednesday evening. This is supported by the statistic that the Rossoneri have conceded three times in five home games in league play.
Even in the narrow 2-1 defeat in their only CL home match to date against Atletico Madrid, keeper Maignan only had to make two saves in the last six minutes of the game; the decisive goal was scored from the penalty spot in the 97th minute. Attractive quotes for a maximum of two goals in the course of the match are offered via the new Tipwin app, among others.
Florenzi, Castillejo, Rebic and regular keeper Maignan will continue to be absent due to injury. The Romanian Ciprian Tatarusanu will once again play between the posts. Whether Olivier Giroud or Zlatan Ibrahimovic will start in attack is still up in the air. At the weekend, “Ibra Kadabra” was able to warm up with a goal in the 2-1 win at Roma.
Predicted line-up of AC Milan:
Tatarusanu; Calabria, Tomori, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Kessie, Tonali; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Giroud
Last matches played by AC Milan:
Serie A
10/31 2021 – AS Roma 1 – 2 AC Milan
10/26 2021 – AC Milan 1 – 0 Torino
10/23 2021 – Bologna 2 – 4 AC Milan
Champions League Grp. B
10/19 2021 – FC Porto 1 – 0 AC Milan
Series A
10/16 2021 – AC Milan 3 – 2 Verona
Porto – Statistics & current form
In a group with Liverpool, Atletico Madrid and AC Milan, it would be a medium surprise if FC Porto, of all teams, were to qualify for the round of 16 as one of the top two. The Portuguese are currently in a real battle for second place with the Spanish champions. Both teams have four points on their account, but the Dragoes still have a slight advantage, having fought their way to a 0-0 draw in Madrid.
As the Colchoneros have to play at Anfield Road on Wednesday evening and are considered underdogs, the blue and white from the Portuguese port city have every opportunity to move past them in the Group B standings and clearly improve their own starting position. The prerequisite would be an away win in Lombardy, which at least on a statistical level seems anything but out of the question.
Porto very stable on the European stage away from home recently
Coach Sergio Concecaio’s side have lost only one of their last five away matches in the top flight and have also celebrated two successive victories against the Rossoneri in the recent past. This was also the case in the aforementioned first leg a fortnight ago, which was deservedly won 1-0 by the Portuguese Primeira Liga leaders, who have won eight times in ten attempts at domestic level, drawn twice and never conceded more than one goal in 90 minutes.
Defensive stability is also a trump card in international business. This is proven by the fact that the former Champions League winners have not conceded a goal in four of their last five matches in the top flight. If the odds on a clean sheet for the Dragons also pay off on Wednesday evening between AC Milan and Porto, it would be the third consecutive “to nil” from the Concecaio side in this competition. The last time there was such a series was in 2012.
Midfielder Mateus Uribe had to be substituted early in the commanding 4-1 home win over Boavista at the weekend and will most likely not be available on Wednesday. Former Leverkusen player Wendell will also have to miss the match. Otherwise, however, all men are on board, including attacker Mehdi Taremi, who has been directly involved in Porto’s last three goals in the Champions League. The 29-year-old Iranian also scored the decisive goal in the first leg.
Predicted Porto line-up:
Marchesin; Corona, Pepe, Mbemba, Sanusi; Otavio, Oliveira, Grujic, Diaz; Evanilson, Taremi
Last matches played by Porto:
Liga Portugal
10/30 2021 – FC Porto 4 – 1 Boavista
Liga Cup Group D
10/26 2021 – Santa Clara 3 – 1 FC Porto
Liga Portugal
10/23 2021 – Tondela 1 – 3 FC Porto
Champions League Grp. B
10/19 2021 – FC Porto 1 – 0 AC Milan
Cup
10/15 2021 – Sintrense 0 – 5 FC Porto
AC Milan – Porto Direct comparison / H2H balance
A total of ten encounters have already taken place between AC Milan and FC Porto. With four wins compared to three defeats and three draws, the Italians lead the direct comparison by a very narrow margin. Before the first leg, however, the last direct encounter took place in 2003, so the current influence and relevance for the upcoming match is not necessarily given. Nevertheless: In 80% of all encounters (eight out of ten), a maximum of two goals were scored…
AC Milan – Porto tip
The match between AC Milan and FC Porto on Wednesday evening is of crucial importance for the final spurt in Group B. Especially for the team that is still on points. Especially for the home side, who are still without a point, only a win counts if they want to get into the race for the last 16. But the visitors from Portugal are also under a certain amount of pressure, as they have the goal of distancing themselves from Atletico Madrid in the fight for second place.
Nevertheless, we do not believe in an open game with many goals. On the one hand, because the “Dragoes” have been very stable defensively on the European stage, especially away from home. On the other hand, however, because the Rossoneri have lacked some offensive punch in their group matches so far. Moreover, the first leg also ended with a 1:0 for the Portuguese. In eight of the last ten direct duels between these teams, a maximum of two goals were scored.
In our eyes, it is therefore definitely worth considering playing the betting odds on the under 2.5 before the match between AC Milan and Porto. At the top, a 1.90 is offered for this at Bet365, which we play on with a stake of seven units.
If you are looking for an exit bet, you will find 1.92 for the double chance X2 bet between AC Milan and Porto. The away win in the “Draw No Bet” is even more attractively remunerated and holds an interesting value, especially as the odds are, in our eyes, somewhat unjustifiably swinging so clearly in the direction of the hosts, who, as mentioned, have lost all three group games so far and have five CL defeats in a row over the course of the season.
