Who will start better in Group of Death F?

While AC Milan are back in the Champions League for a third time after a seven-year break between 2014 and 2021, Newcastle United are celebrating their return to the top flight after a 21-year absence. In Group F, which has been dubbed the Group of Death, with Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund, every single point counts. Both opponents in this match are desperate to avoid the opening defeat. Accordingly, the AC Milan vs. Newcastle betting tips are based on a not too high-scoring match

For the Rossoneri, it’s also a matter of brushing off the ignominy of the weekend, when they lost the Derby della Madonnina 5-1 to city rivals Inter Milan. The Magpies won 1-0 in their dress rehearsal against Brentford, but lost all three of their Premier League games before that. Thus, the AC Milan vs Newcastle forecast must take into account that things have not been going well for either team recently.

In terms of squad, the two teams do not have much in common and have a similar total market value. Accordingly, a match of equals is to be expected in which both teams, who have not cut the best figure defensively of late, must definitely focus on concentrated defensive work. In our eyes, this suggests that it will not be overly high-scoring in a match in which a single mistake could decide the game.

We recommend betting on a maximum of two goals in this first Group F preliminary round match.

AC Milan – Statistics & current form

AC Milan remain the second most successful team in the Champions League, or European Cup of Champions, behind record winners Real Madrid, with seven overall victories.

After going through a rough patch in the 2010s and missing out on the top flight between 2014 and 2021, the Rossoneri are back in the UEFA Champions League for the third consecutive season and 20th time overall. The Lombards have been eliminated in only one of the last 14 preliminary rounds.

Won only one of their last eleven competitive matches against English clubs

Only last season, AC Milan once again made it to the semi-finals of the top flight, and they are looking to build on that in the new season. Group F, which is often referred to as the group of death, is a tough one. But if speculation on an opening win for the Rossoneri in the AC Milan against Newcastle Tipp comes to fruition, that would already be a big step.

In doing so, the Lombards could win three Champions League group games in a row for the first time since September 2006, when Carlo Ancelotti was still the coach. To do so, however, they will have to improve their poor record against English clubs, against whom they have won only one of their last eleven international matches (two draws, eight defeats).

Bitter defeat after three wins to start the season

At national level, meanwhile, the Diavolo got off to a flying start as they made it three wins from three league games. Among other things, Stefano Pioli’s team won 2-1 away at Europa League finalists AS Roma.

But then, in the prestigious Derby della Madonnina, the Rossoneri suffered a complete defeat in their Champions League dress rehearsal against Inter Milan. AC Milan were beaten 1:5 on Saturday evening. This English week will now be correspondingly groundbreaking for the 19-time Italian champions.

Predicted line-up of AC Milan:

AC Milan (Expected line-up) 4-3-3

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

Newcastle United Football Club last competed in the UEFA Champions League in the 2002/03 season. At that time, the club from the north-east of England became the first club ever to achieve the feat of starting a Champions League group stage with three defeats and then advancing to the knockout stage.

The feat was later repeated by Atalanta Bergamo as recently as 2019, when relegation battles in the Premier League were on the agenda rather than international competition for the Magpies.

Having lost three of their first five Premier League games

After a 21-year absence, the traditional English club is now back in the top flight. However, the financially strong club did not have the best start to the season. Although the high flight of the strong 2022/23 season initially seemed to continue when the opening game was won 5:1 against Aston Villa.

However, this was followed by three defeats in a row. While the 0:1 defeat against Manchester City was certainly bearable, the 1:2 home defeat against Liverpool was a real disappointment. Against the Reds, the Magpies were outplayed for an hour, but still squandered their 1-0 lead before losing 3-1 to Europa League debutants Brighton.

Only 22% of Champions League away games won

At least for the dress rehearsal, Newcastle kept a clean sheet for the first time, winning 1-0 against Brentford on Saturday. However, the betting companies do not consider it too likely that the north-easterners will be able to build on this in Italy. The AC Milan vs. Newcastle odds are slightly in favour of the Rossoneri.

This is also due to the fact that the Magpies have had a hard time away from home in the top flight so far. Of nine Champions League away games played, NUFC have won just two (two draws, five defeats) – a win rate of just 22% compared to the 56% win rate in Champions League home games.

Predicted Newcastle line-up:

Newcastle (Expected line-up) 4-3-3

AC Milan – Newcastle Direct comparison / H2H balance

Never before has there been a European competition match between the two clubs. Therefore, there is no “head to head” data available that could influence the forecast for AC Milan vs. Newcastle

AC Milan – Newcastle Tip

Purely from the market value of both teams, a close match at eye level can be expected, which could be decided by a single mistake. The respective coaches know this, too, and they will definitely not go headlong into the wall and play unconditionally for victory. In Group of Death F, a three-point win would be worth its weight in gold for both teams. In principle, however, both the Rossoneri and the Magpies can live with a point.

Given this starting position and likely approach, we expect a very tactical game in which both teams will primarily rely on concentrated defensive work. Therefore, it should not be a high-scoring match at the San Siro.