Do the Reds destroy Milan’s last hope?
For many years, the away goals rule in the European Cup has been one of the most debated topics in top-flight international football. With the start of the 2021/22 season, this has now been abolished. Already on the last matchday of the Champions League group stage, exactly this decision could play an important role. Especially in Group of Death B, there is a lot of tension before the last two games.
While Liverpool are already safely through in first place and are only pushing for maximum points from six games, three other clubs – AC Milan, Atletico Madrid and FC Porto – are fighting for second place in the table. The Rossoneri no longer have it in their own hands to advance.
Only if the lower odds on a home win pay off in the AC Milan vs Liverpool clash on Tuesday evening can the Italians still have any hope of reaching the last 16. However, there will have to be support in the form of a draw or a narrow victory for the Colchoneros in Portugal in the parallel match.
Although it can be assumed that the Reds will spare one or two key players for the upcoming tasks at the Guiseppe Meazza, we cannot imagine that the 2019 title holders will call off the match and then want to hear accusations of distorting the competition. Consequently, contrary to many opinions, between AC Milan and Liverpool, predicting a good result for the visitors is perhaps the No. 1 betting option.
AC Milan – Statistics & current form
Milan could move into an illustrious circle on Tuesday night. In fact, only four teams in the history of the Champions League have managed to make it to the last 16 after completely failing to win a treble in the first four matchdays of the group stage. The Lombards could now become the fifth team, although the prospects are very much theoretical or mathematical.
The fact is, however, that Stefano Pioli’s team needs a win to keep their hopes alive. However, this undertaking could prove to be extremely complicated, as the Rossoneri have not won against an English club on the international stage since February 2012 and have not won a single game in the group stage of the top flight since September 2013.
Is Milan doing their homework?
We therefore think that the bookmakers are taking the wrong approach to the upcoming match by basing the home side’s role as favourites solely on the “need to win”. It is also clear that the Italians are under pressure and have to play forward, which means that they will always open up spaces for the visitors, who are in good form.
Although Pioli’s team has been able to build up self-confidence twice in a row in Serie A and even take the top spot in the national top flight, the opponents Salernitana and Genoa were nowhere near the calibre of LFC. Considering the meagre haul of four points from five group games so far, but already seven goals conceded, we think it is too risky to bet on a home win between AC Milan and Liverpool. Especially considering that the surprisingly low odds offer no value whatsoever given the strengths of both teams.
Milan are also struggling with problems at the moment. With Olivier Giroud, Samu Castillejo, Ante Rebic and Pietro Pellegri, four offensive players are out injured. In addition, defender Simon Kjaer recently suffered a serious injury, so that he will be out for a longer period of time. In the absence of the aforementioned Giroud, who scored eight goals against the Reds in his career, hopes rest on the aging shoulders of Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
Predicted line-up of AC Milan:
Maignan; Kalulu, Tomori, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Kessie, Tonali; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Ibrahimovic
Last matches played by AC Milan:
Series A
12/04 2021 – AC Milan 2 – 0 Salernitana
12/01 2021 – Genoa 0 – 3 AC Milan
11/28 2021 – AC Milan 1 – 3 Sassuolo
Champions League Grp. B
11/24 2021 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 1 AC Milan
Serie A
11/20 2021 – AC Florence 4 – 3 AC Milan
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
Did you know that no English team has ever managed to win all six group games in a Champions League season? But that could be exactly what changes on Tuesday night. Liverpool Football Club are already on five wins from five games and will be looking to make their mark in the Champions League with an away treble at the San Siro. Another interesting fact is that the Reds have never won six consecutive matches in Europe’s most important club competition!
So anyone who thinks that coach Jürgen Klopp’s team won’t have the motivation to give it their all in the Italian fashion city is, in our eyes, mistaken. Especially in view of the fact that the substitutes, who will presumably be lining up in rows, will naturally want to make the most of their opportunity and recommend themselves for further tasks on the biggest possible international football stage.
Will Liverpool’s B eleven secure the record?
The Reds’ current form, moreover, provides additional arguments that point to a prediction between AC Milan and Liverpool that the Englishmen will pick up at least a point. In the Premier League, there have been four wins in a row recently. Moreover, it was only at the weekend that a narrow 1-0 win at Wolverhampton ended a previous 18-match streak in which LFC always scored at least two goals per game.
Furthermore, it should not be neglected how dominant Klopp’s team has been so far in the group of death. 15 goals scored and three handicap victories underline this thesis and allow the conclusion that the guests from the island are qualitatively above the Lombards. Since the start of the 2018/19 CL season, only Manuel Neuer has kept the clean sheet more often (16) than Alisson Becker (14).
The bookmakers are assuming that Jürgen Klopp will spare a few players for this weekend’s home game against Stevie Gerrard’s Aston Villa. We don’t rule out a completely different starting eleven, but we still believe that there will be enough quality on the pitch to exploit the Rossoneri’s pressure situation in their own favour. Gomez, Keita, Elliott, Jones, Firmino and Milner will definitely be missing. Konate, Tsimikas, Morton, Origi or Minamino could move into the team. And then there is a certain Mo Salah, who has already scored six times in his five Champions League games in 2021/22. The Egyptian only failed to score in the recent 2-0 win over Atletico Madrid.
Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson; Williams, Konate, Van Dijk, Tsimikas; Morton, Henderson, Oxlade-Chamberlain; Salah, Origi, Minamino
Last matches played by Liverpool:
Premier League
12/04 2021 – Wolverhampton 0 – 1 Liverpool FC
12/01 2021 – Everton 1 – 4 Liverpool FC
11/27 2021 – Liverpool FC 4 – 0 Southampton
Champions League Grp. B
11/24 2021 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 FC Porto
Premier League
11/20 2021 – Liverpool FC 4 – 0 Arsenal London
AC Milan – Liverpool Direct comparison / H2H record
Three matches have been played between AC Milan and Liverpool in the top flight so far. In 2005 and 2007, the highly decorated clubs met in the final. In 2005 with a dramatic victory after extra time for the Reds, two years later with a successful revenge for the Italians.
Meanwhile, the first leg of the current group stage ended 3-2 in favour of LFC, who turned around a 2-1 deficit at the break. At least three goals were scored in all three of the aforementioned matches.
AC Milan – Liverpool tip
In Group B, the last matchday will be a real challenge. Three teams have the chance to reach the second round of 16 spot. The Rossoneri, who currently have four points after five matchdays, not only need a home win against Liverpool to advance, but also some help in the parallel match.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic can only continue to dream of his first trophy if Porto and Atletico Madrid draw, or if the Spanish champions continue to have the weaker goal difference compared to the Milanese side in the event of a win. But before looking over to Portugal, their own compulsory task must be completed. According to the AC Milan vs. Liverpool betting odds, however, that seems entirely possible.
Admittedly, though, we don’t really agree with the spread of the quotes. Primarily based on the starting position and the supposed rotation of personnel among the visitors, we think it is reprehensible to assume that the Pioli eleven will win. Instead, we are convinced that the self-confident Reds, who have won all five group games so far, will also get their chance to win on Tuesday evening.
For us, it is therefore interesting to focus on a double chance X2 bet between AC Milan and Liverpool. At Unibet, we get an exciting 1.77 at the top. If you want to bet on an away win, you can do so at the same bookmaker. In case of success, you can expect far more than three times the payout of your stake. It cannot be ruled out that LFC will become the first English club in history to pick up 18 points from six group matches in the Champions League.
